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32. Coronavirus, China, and the Middle East
- Author:
- Mordechai Chaziza
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East was already plagued by war, famine, and wholesale death in the form of multiple civil wars when the outbreak of Covid-19, a novel coronavirus, added pestilence to the mix. The pandemic offers a unique prism through which to assess the way China interacts with Middle Eastern states in time of crisis. While many countries in the Middle East suspended bilateral air travel, repatriated their citizens from China, and prevented Chinese workers from returning to the region, the same governments also sought to maintain close relations, expressed support for Beijing, and delivered aid to China. The findings show that at least for now, the relationship between China and the Middle Eastern states remains close. However, it may take months to see the full ramifications of the pandemic in the Middle East, so it is too soon to tell how China’s interactions with the countries of the region will develop.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Health, Bilateral Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
33. What US strategy gets wrong about China in Africa
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s Africa strategy is rooted in three misconceptions about China’s African footprint—and a fourth about US-Africa economic relations—that are either factually incorrect or overstated in terms of the broader strategic challenges they pose to US interests: (1) Chinese engagement in Africa crowds out opportunities for trade and investment with and from the United States; (2) Chinese engagement in Africa is resource-seeking—to the detriment of US interests; (3) Chinese engagement in Africa is designed to foster debt-based coercive diplomacy; and (4) US-Africa economic linkages are all one-way and concessionary (i.e., aid-based). Hendrix finds little evidence to suggest Chinese trade and investment ties crowd out US trade and investment opportunities. China’s resource-seeking bent is evident in investment patterns, but it is more a function of Africa’s having comparatively large, undercapitalized resource endowments than China’s attempt to corner commodity markets. Chinese infrastructural development—particularly large projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative—may result in increased African indebtedness to the Chinese, but there is little reason to think debt per se will vastly expand Chinese military capacity in the region. And finally, US-Africa economic relations are much less one-sided and concessionary (i.e., aid-based) than conventional wisdom suggests.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, North America, and United States of America
34. Developing Countries Can Help Restore the WTO's Dispute Settlement System
- Author:
- Ana González and Euijin Jung
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- By refusing to fill vacancies in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body—the top body that hears appeals and rules on trade disputes—the Trump administration has paralyzed the key component of the dispute settlement system. No nation or group of nations has more at stake in salvaging this system than the world’s big emerging-market economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, and Thailand, among others. These countries have actively and successfully used the dispute settlement system to defend their commercial interests abroad and resolve inevitable trade conflicts. The authors suggest that even though the developing countries did not create the Appellate Body crisis, they may hold a key to unlock it. The Trump administration has also focused its ire on a longstanding WTO practice of giving these economies latitude to seek “special and differential treatment” in trade negotiations because of their developing-country status. The largest developing economies, which have a significant stake in preserving a two-step, rules-based mechanism for resolving trade disputes, could play a role in driving a potential bargain to save the appeals mechanism. They could unite to give up that special status in return for a US commitment to end its boycott of the nomination of Appellate Body members.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, World Trade Organization, Developing World, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Brazil, North America, Mexico, Thailand, and United States of America
35. Indo-Pacific as the Main Arena of the U.S.-China Rivalry
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration recognises the “Indo-Pacific” region—which in official terminology has replaced “Asia-Pacific”—as the most important area for maintaining U.S. global dominance by confronting China. The anti-China approach in the American strategy is not shared by other countries that also are developing Indo-Pacific policy because they are concerned about the negative effects of the U.S.-China rivalry. The Americans will put pressure on their NATO and EU allies to more strongly support the achievement of U.S. goals in the region. However, the EU approach is closer to that of the Asian countries in seeking cooperation and strengthening the stability of a cooperative and rules-based regional order.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, European Union, and Indo-Pacific
36. The Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Control
- Author:
- Artur Kacprzyk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration is sceptical about extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START, NST), which is to expire in 2021. It wants to sign a new deal with Russia and China covering all kinds of nuclear weapons. It will not be possible, however, to negotiate such a complex agreement before NST expires. In effect, there is a growing risk of a collapse of U.S.-Russia strategic arms control, which would negatively affect NATO as well: it would deepen both the divisions over the future of deterrence policy within the Alliance and the differences in the U.S. Congress on the modernisation of America’s nuclear forces.
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, United States of America, and North America
37. The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy
- Author:
- Damian Wnukowski and Marek Wasinski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic and efforts to suppress it (the Great Lockdown) will lead to the collapse of the global economy. In the short term, the reduction in production and consumption in the countries most affected by the pandemic will lead to a global recession. In the long run, the crisis may result in a partial retreat from globalisation, higher indebtedness, and narrowing the differences in economic potential between the EU and the U.S., and China. A positive side effect may be the acceleration of the development of the digital economy, including the services market.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
38. Surveillance and Control: Russia during the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Jakub Benedyczak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has become an opportunity for the Russian authorities to increase repressive measures and test Chinese solutions for digital control of society. Most of the solutions will probably be maintained after the pandemic eases, especially given the deepening economic crisis and potential of protests.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Surveillance, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Eurasia
39. The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s cooperation with the Western Balkans through the “17+1” format and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among others, is primarily political. In the economic sphere, Chinese investments are to a large extent only declarations, and trade is marginal in comparison to cooperation with the EU or others. China’s goals are to gain political influence in future EU countries and limit their cooperation with the U.S. Competition with China in the region requires more intense EU-U.S. cooperation, made more difficult by the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans
40. U.S. Policy in the Arctic
- Author:
- Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Arctic has become another contested area between the U.S., Russia, and China. The region’s growing importance for global trade and American security means the U.S. goal is largely to maintain freedom of navigation in the Arctic. For this reason, the Trump administration strives to increase American capacities to operate in the Arctic. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will delay implementing these plans; nevertheless, they will be achieved in the long term and the U.S. will also expect support in the Arctic from NATO allies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America