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481. Return of the Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Despite China's effort to maintain peace with its neighbors, its military and economic growth poses an undeniable threat. Regional states must account for a more powerful potential adversary in China, and China has become more ambitious in its efforts to control its surroundings. Historical baggage has only aggravated the situation as China believes it is reclaiming its rightful place after a time of weakness and mistreatment, and other Asia-Pacific countries remember all too well their encounter with Chinese conflict and domination. Through a careful consideration of historical factors and raw data, Denny Roy examines the benefits and consequences of a more politically, economically, and militarily potent China. Since China's intended sphere of influence encroaches on the autonomy of regional states, its attempts to increase its own security have weakened the security of its neighbors. Nevertheless, there is little incentive for Beijing to change a status quo that is mostly good for China, and the PRC thrives through its participation in the global economy and multilateral institutions. Even so, Beijing remains extremely sensitive to challenges to the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy and believes it is entitled to exercise influence on its periphery. On these issues, nationalism trumps any reluctance to upset the international system. Diplomatic disputes regarding the islands in the South China Sea, as well as controversial relations with North Korea, continue to undermine Chinese promises of positive behavior. Roy's study reveals the dynamics defining this volatile region, in which governments pursue China as an economic partner yet fear Beijing's power to set the rules of engagement.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China and East Asia
Publication Identifier:
9780231159005
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

482. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future

Author:
Sabrina Tsai
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

483. Asia's Uncertain Future: Korea, China's Aggressiveness, and New Leadership - Full Issue

Author:
Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
For over twenty years, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) invited leading Korea and Asia scholars and experts from around the world to its annual academic symposium. Starting in 2012, KEI embarked on a new initiative to revamp this series by partnering with the Association of Asian Studies (AAS) to incorporate the symposium into the AAS annual conference. To this end, KEI organized four conference panels, advertised KEI’s outreach work to over 3,000 conference participants at AAS, and raised the profile of the Institute on a global stage. As before, KEI edited, compiled and published the research papers presented by the distinguished speakers at the symposium as part of its Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies series. Part of this new endeavor is the involvement of Dr. Gilbert Rozman, the Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. As the Editor-in-Chief for this Joint U.S.- Korea Academic Studies volume, his knowledge and work with the authors is visible throughout this publication. Dr. Rozman also helped KEI organize four timely and topical panels at the AAS conference. His involvement is part of KEI’s constant effort to bring our subscribers high quality and informative resources on issues impacting the U.S.-Republic of Korea relationship. The events and actions in Northeast Asia continue to have important implications for the future of the region. Many of these interactions have both bilateral and multilateral effects, which our authors examine in four themes. The rise of the Asia-Pacific region is characterized by both an increase in cooperation and competition among countries, and our experts look at this dynamic through key bilateral relationships. Moreover, economics has been a vital driver of cooperation in Asia, and this volume examines this continuing trend with the development of the China-Japan-Korea trilateral relationship and the possibility of a free trade agreement among the three countries. We have a section that further analyzes the national identity aspects of the U.S.-China relationship and how national identity issues are often at the core of how other countries view themselves in the region compared to that huge bilateral relationship. Lastly, one section looks at the ever-looming question of reunification on the Korean Peninsula. As you can see, all of these are important areas for understanding and succeeding in an Asia-Pacific century.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and United States of America

484. BRICS, Energy and the New World Order

Author:
Stein Sundstol Eriksen, Sverre Lodgaard, Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, Elana Wilson Rowe, and Ole Jacob Sending
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
When a Goldman Sachs executive introduced the ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) acronym in 2001, it was an innovative move, since continued success could not be taken for granted for all of the countries: only China and India had sustained high growth in the 1990s. Time has shown that the bet was a safe one: the BRIC constellation has been a rising star. In 2010, the category expanded to BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa, thereby covering all the major developing continents. BRICS is still in the making as an institution, but it may be here to stay, with annual summits held since 2009 and a stronger role in global governance through the G-20. In the geopolitics of energy, the BRICS play several roles, with increasing weight and significance. As large nations with rapid growth, the BRICS are increasingly important as suppliers or consumers of energy (Chapter 1). As emerging economies, they are part of a broader process of reallocation in the world economy, with a ‘New World Order’ emerging and energy affected via GDP growth, new trade patterns and transport-related energy demand (Chapter 2). In this emerging new order, the BRICS are also challenging the old powers in the field of security, and Chapter 3 examines the related implications for energy. While the old world was – at least in the economic field – a ‘hub-and-spoke’ system with Western Europe and North America at the core, a new pattern is emerging with increasing interaction along the rim. As an illustration of these new patterns, Chapter 4 examines the role of China and India in Africa, with the focus on energy and governance. With respect to timing, the focus on the giants rather than the dwarfs may have been a product of its era: Until 1980, there was broad development among poor nations, but the last two decades of the 20th century were a story of two tracks: a minority of important developing nations forging ahead and succeeding, and a large number of failures, especially in Africa. Perhaps that was why G-77 was no longer so much fun, and the rise of the giants seemed a more appealing concept. BRICS are large middle-income countries on the way up. The group is perceived, and perceives itself, as a symbol of development and the emerging world, challenging the ‘old world’. Is this perception true? has there really been a ‘decline of the West’? and have the BRICS been leading this change?
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

485. The New U.S. Defense Strategic Guidance and Its Implications for South Korean Security

Author:
Young Ho Kim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On January 5, 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama paid a rare visit to the Pentagon and unveiled his guidelines for the Department of Defense to set the goals and priorities of its defense strategy for the next ten years. The resulting eight-page-long guidelines, entitled Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (hereafter DSG), contain the administration’s assessment of changing global security conditions and propose the roles and shape of the U.S. armed forces for the coming decade. Prepared through “unprecedentedly” close consultations between the President himself and senior leaders in the U.S. defense department and military including both service chiefs and combatant commanders, the DSG defines the present as a historic “inflection point” and envisions the future U.S. military as “smaller and leaner, but agile, flexible, ready and technologically advanced.” Moreover, in accordance with the DSG the U.S. defense budget will be cut by $487 billion and the sizes of the Army and Marine Corps will shrink by 80,000 and 14,000 respectively over the next ten years. While a more detailed picture will be revealed next month with the administration’s FY2013 budget request to Congress, the DSG reflects the Obama administration’s arduous effort to rebalance and redirect its defense priorities and spending under severe fiscal austerity. Because of the unusual timing of its publication and the magnitude of the reduction in defense spending, the DSG has generated controversy and concern domestically in the United States as well as internationally. In the United States, particularly people in the conservative wing of the Republican Party have been prompted to criticize the guidelines for putting the nation’s security in danger, whereas some people on the liberal side have advocated seeking deeper and bolder cuts in defense spending. Internationally, China was understandably the first to respond negatively to the DSG. For example, rebutting the DSG’s portrayal of Beijing’s military policy as lacking transparency as “groundless and untrustworthy,” Liu Weimin, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stressed that Beijing was committed to peaceful development and “defensive” policy. What then are the implications of the DSG for South Korean security? Will there be any changes in U.S. defense policy or posture in the region under the DSG that may affect security conditions in South Korea significantly and, if so, require new measures or scrutiny by the South Korean government or the military? In fact, there have been largely four issues raised by the news media in South Korea. I will examine these four issues, and then discuss more challenging concerns that will require closer attention by South Korean foreign and security policy-makers.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

486. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

Author:
Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea

487. China's Fear of Contagion: Tiananmen Square and the Power of the European Example

Author:
M.E. Sarotte
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
For the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), erasing the memory of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square massacre remains a full-time job. The party aggressively monitors and restricts media and internet commentary about the event. As Sinologist Jean-Philippe Béja has put it, during the last two decades it has not been possible "even so much as to mention the conjoined Chinese characters for 6 and 4" in web searches, so dissident postings refer instead to the imaginary date of May 35. Party censors make it "inconceivable for scholars to access Chinese archival sources" on Tiananmen, according to historian Chen Jian, and do not permit schoolchildren to study the topic; 1989 remains a "'forbidden zone' in the press, scholarship, and classroom teaching." The party still detains some of those who took part in the protest and does not allow others to leave the country. And every June 4, the CCP seeks to prevent any form of remembrance with detentions and a show of force by the pervasive Chinese security apparatus. The result, according to expert Perry Link, is that in to-day's People's Republic of China (PRC), "Most young people have barely heard about the events of 1989."
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
China and Europe

488. China's New Courtship in South Sudan

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and South Sudan

489. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:
Michael Beckley
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

490. Globalization of Security in the Persian Gulf

Author:
Michele Brunelli
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
This paper intends to point out that threats and problems related to security and stability are common and affect the entire sub-regional system, necessitating common responses. The paper is structured in three parts. In the first part this paper intends to analyse and explain the concept of security, demonstrating that from a theoretical point of view, it must not be considered as a univocal problem, but regrouping different aspects. The second part of the paper analyses the many sources of instability affecting the Persian Gulf region today, with unavoidable consequences seen in the neighbouring sub-regional systems, such as the Caucasus, Central Asia, European Union, India and China. In the third part this paper will propose some theoretical ideas and pragmatic mechanisms aimed at suggesting different solutions to the issues analysed above. There will also be a review of the proposal for the creation of a common market involving Iran and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as a prelude to a monetary union modelled on the experiences and results of the Euro. The effects of an end to the embargo on Iran will also be assessed. As for military security, I will assess whether the realisation of a sort of a Persian Gulf version of NATO would be possible.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Central Asia, and India