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281. Prospects for energy cooperation in North-East Asia

Author:
Ernest Wyciszkiewicz
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The cooperation between the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, and Japan in the field of energy is one of the major factors defining the foreign policies of these countries and determining the strategic environment in Northeast Asia. For several years now, each of the three countries has been considering means of ensuring long-term energy security (Japan and China), and the appropriate use of existing energy potential to modernise the state and improve its international standing (Russia).Although the energy cooperation between these countries is still of a limited scope, the dynamic development of the regional energy markets is to be expected, given the fast changing international setting. The nature of future relations between the three powers (whether cooperative or confrontational) in the field of energy will have an impact on both regional and global security, particularly if one considers the growing political and economic significance of the Asia-Pacific region. An analysis of the present state of this cooperation and of its future prospects entails a discussion of the existing international and domestic conditions determining the policies of the three main actors: Russia, China, and Japan.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, Northeast Asia, and Asia-Pacific

282. China and the Global Economy: Medium-term Issues and Options - A Synthesis Report

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Edwin Lim, and Michael Spence
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
China's economic and social achievements since the beginning of reform and opening are unprecedented in global history. Managing the growth process in this continuously changing environment has required great skill and the use of unconventional economic policy. Now China has entered a new era in its development process with a set of challenges largely different from those of the recent past. Some problems - such as growing internal and external structural imbalances, increasing income and regional inequality – have arisen from, or been exacerbated by, the very pattern and success of high growth since reforms began. Others are newly posed by rapid changes in the global economy. These challenges can best be tackled in an integrated and coordinated fashion. This report, supported by the China Economic Research and Advisory Programme (CERAP), identifies the primary challenges facing China today and presents options for meeting them.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

283. China as "Victim"? The Opium War That Wasn't

Author:
Harry G. Gelber
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The 1840-42 Anglo-Chinese war (the so-called “Opium War”) is almost universally believed to have been triggered by British imperial rapacity and determination to sell more and more opium into China. That belief is mistaken. The British went to war because of Chinese military threats to defenseless British civilians, including women and children; because China refused to negotiate on terms of diplomatic equality and because China refused to open more ports than Canton to trade, not just with Britain but with everybody. The belief about British “guilt” came later, as part of China's long catalogue of alleged Western “exploitation and aggression.”
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia

284. China: The Balance Sheet - Issue Snapshots

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
American strategy can—and must—respond to China's rise in a way that assures regional security, realizes the greatest possible economic benefit, averts worst-case outcomes from China's remarkable social transformation, and increasingly integrates the country as a partner—or at least not an active opponent—in achieving a prosperous and stable world order for future generations. All this can be done—if the United States asks the right questions, understands China's complexities, and reinforces America's strengths. China: The Balance Sheet, a joint publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Institute for International Economics, provides the foundation for an informed and effective response to the China challenge in four critical areas.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

285. China and Iran: Mismatched Partners

Author:
John Calabrese
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
China and Iran are important geopolitical actors as well as major players in the global energy market. In recent years, the Sino-Iranian relationship has broadened and deepened. Energy cooperation is the main axis around which this partnership revolves. As a result, China is a stakeholder in the outcome of the diplomatic crisis that has been brewing over the Iranian nuclear program. The relationship between China and Iran deserves careful scrutiny, not the least because their strategic motivations remain ambiguous and their dealings with each other lack transparency.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China and Iran

286. The Korean War June-October 1950: Inchon and Stalin in the "Trigger vs. Justification"; Debate

Author:
Tan Kwoh Jack
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China's decision to enter the Korean War in 1950 is a historical puzzle: why would China, a much weaker country, enter into a military confrontation with the United States, a superpower? The rationale for Chairman Mao Zedong's intervention in Korea carries strategic lessons for the contemporary crisis on the Korean Peninsula, as well as for Sino-American relations. Utilizing newly declassified Russian documents made available at the Cold War International History Project from 1994- 2004, this paper critically assesses this new evidence concurrently with the existing literature that has emerged so far, and seeks to contribute to the “trigger vs. justification” debate surrounding China'sentry. Three shortcomings of this debate are identified: 1) whether Mao would have intervened had the US military stopped at the 38 th parallel is difficult to determine; 2) Mao' s vacillations up till the very last minute cast doubt on the justification argument i.e. offensive intervention driven by revolutionary ideology and politics; and 3) as a result, this ignores the complex dimensions of decision-making and interaction between Stalin and the Chinese leadership, as well as within the Chinese leadership itself. This paper argues that one significant variable overlooked heretofore is the American landings at Inchon on 19 September 1950. This is followed by in-depth analyses of the following three main interactions that Inchon engendered – 1) the policy shifts within the Truman administration; 2) the Stalin-Mao manoeuvres; and 3) the debates and dilemmas within the Chinese Politburo. This paper concludes that it was Inchon, along with additional pressure from Stalin, and not the crossing of the 38 th parallel, that triggered China's eventual entry into Korea.
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
China and Asia

287. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Justin Vaisse
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

288. North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Korean nuclear standoff entered an even more troubling phase with Pyongyang's test of a nuclear device on 9 October 2006. Condemnation was nearly universal, and the UN Security Council moved quickly to pass Resolution 1718 unanimously less than a week later. The test stirred China to take an unusually strong line against its ally, joining UN sanctions and dispatching a senior envoy to Pyongyang. On 31 October, after talks in Beijing with the U.S. and China, Pyongyang agreed to return to the six-party talks. The resumption of a diplomatic process is welcome but will likely face the same pitfalls as earlier rounds in which progress was undermined by a lack of clear understandings between North Korea and the U.S. While the six-party talks are a useful forum, resolving the nuclear issue will also require committed bilateral negotiations that address in detail North Korea's security concerns and U.S. demands for complete disarmament and intrusive verification. China's strong response may prove to be a major new factor pressing North Korea to offer more concessions in the talks, but only if the U.S. is prepared to set the table with a far more specific and appetizing menu than it has thus far.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Pyongyang

289. East of the Middle East: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and U.S. security implications

Author:
Tim Murphy
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan represented an eastward shift in the United States' international focus. Previously concentrated on the Middle East, the United States has reconfigured its foreign policy directives to include interests east of the Middle East. The shift was long overdue. Central Asia is a rising regional security concern, and Chinese and Russian actions therein have cultivated robust political ties. Resulting cooperatives and agreements promote Chinese and Russian regional objectives. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) originally consisted of five Central Asian and Asian countries (the Shanghai Five), ostensibly to unify signatories on economic, social and political platforms. However, the SCO is often a proxy to advance Chinese and Russian interests.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

290. Fear of China is overplayed

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
WASHINGTON -China is rapidly becoming, to many U.S. conservatives, the primary menace to U.S. national security. In fact, the attitude seems to be that China is the new Soviet bear. This mentality would have you believe that any gains by China are directly at the expense of the United States. But this attitude is unsubstantiated and based largely on racism -- which it would behoove the United States to drop immediately.
Topic:
Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia