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11. "Systemic Risks": A Conversation on Nuclear Technology and Deterrence with Dr. Vipin Narang

Author:
Dylan Land
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Fletcher Security Review (FSR): What do you perceive as the greatest threat to global nuclear security? Where do you see the greatest potential for the outbreak of nuclear war? ​ Vipin Narang (VN): Rather than focusing on regions, I see three trends which I think we should be concerned about. One is the return of a great power arms race, and a lot of this was exacerbated in the Trump administration. Even as we head into the Biden administration—which extended the New START Treaty with Russia for five years—Russia and China are modernizing their nuclear forces at breakneck speed. They are worried primarily about U.S. missile defenses, which at this point are unconstrained. The United States has a variety of missile defense systems at the regional level which work pretty well, as well as the national missile defense system, which doesn’t…yet. You will often hear that the national missile defense system does not work very well and that is true—the success rate is around 60 percent in simulated tests. It may be difficult to ever get it to work perfectly or even well, but it is the prospect that the United States might get it to work that really drives modernization efforts in Russia and China..... ​
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Risk, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Global Focus, and United States of America

12. China’s Emerging Disaster Diplomacy: What It Means for Southeast Asia

Author:
Lina Gong
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Chinese government formed two new bodies in 2018 that have been expected to improve China’s response to natural hazards and humanitarian emergencies in other countries. What are the implications for Southeast Asia, where the risk and threat of different types of disaster persist?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Risk, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

13. Can China’s Diplomatic Partnership Strategy Benefit Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

Author:
Churen Sun and Yaying Liu
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China’s partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China’s diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as noncentral firms and non-Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China’s diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China’s diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Foreign Direct Investment, Partnerships, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Risk, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

14. The Global Exchange (Fall 2019)

Author:
Christy Clark, Monica Gattinger, Wilfrid Greaves, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Geoffrey Cann, Matthew Foss, Kelly Ogle, Jean-Sebastien Rioux, Wenran Jiang, Robert Seeley, Dennis McConaghy, and Ron Wallace
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Global Exchange
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The demand for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) continues to grow and Canada’s unconventional reserves remain amongst the very best in the world. With political will and an appetite to embrace gas the way Premier Lougheed once championed oil, we can still put the wealth of Western Canadian gas to work for the good of all Canadians. The papers that follow will be essential pieces for policy makers as they map out the path to Canada’s next great economic transformation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Gas, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Australia, and North America

15. Whither US-China Trade War? Impacts on global trade, technology and finance, and strategies to mitigate risks

Author:
Lia Valls Pereira, Tatiana Rosito, and Gabriel de Barros Torres
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
For its twelthth meeting, CEBRI's China Analysis Group organized discussions on the economic and geopolitical causes and consequences of trade frictions between China and the United States, considering its impact on different actors and on the multilateral trading system at large. Despite the original focus on trade imbalances, participants noted that the bilateral rivalry’s underlying drivers relate to competition for leadership in high-tech sectors and, fundamentally, to the conciliation of practices associated with different development models. Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the next steps in the dispute, there was a consensus among participants that a complete decoupling between both economies is virtually unfeasible in the short-term and not likely in the long-term. The speakers at the event were Marcos Troyjo, Jin Canrong, Kellie Meiman and Niu Haibin and comments were made by Lia Valls and Tatiana Prazeres. The event was coordinated by CEBRI Senior Fellow Tatiana Rosito.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Finance, Trade Wars, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16. International Sustainable and Climate Finance: Where are we and which is the role of China on this?

Author:
Alice Amorim
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
This brief focuses on climate finance, as it encompasses a substantive part of the resources in this broader sustainability agenda. Having a better understanding of this field is important given the possible risk of other development resources being hijacked by the climate finance rhetoric. The paper also presents updated data on climate finance flows and for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda. Finally, it presents some evidence of how China and Chinese-led financial institutions are becoming key players in this field.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Finance, Risk, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
China

17. Risk and Resiliency: China’s Emerging Air Base Strike Threat

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Given the centrality of air power for U.S. power projection in the Western Pacific, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has focused on prioritizing the development of asymmetric capabilities to target American air superiority where it is weakest―on the ground. China’s military modernization program is closely associated with a number of maturing precision strike capabilities designed for attacking air bases. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the evolving airpower challenge that the United States faces in the Western Pacific and beyond. It explores Chinese military writings on air base strike operations, evaluates the current trajectory of the PLA’s precision strike capabilities, and concludes with recommendations for how American airpower in Asia can be more resilient against threats.
Topic:
Power Politics, Weapons, Risk, Strategic Competition, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

18. Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk in Europe and China

Author:
Sara Hsu, Jianjun Li, and Yanzhi Qin
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
We compare the European and Chinese shadow banking systems. While the European shadow banking system is better developed than the Chinese shadow banking system, herd behavior and other factors in European markets create systemic risk, which contributed in part to the financial crisis. Dispersion of risk across the "under-developed" shadow banking system in China has led to some cases of localized, concentrated risk, but not to systemic risk. We discuss proposed European shadow banking regulation and its implications for systemic risk, and discuss what lessons China might glean from such policies. We also discuss what lessons China's diverse and systemically uncoordinated shadow banking sector might provide for Europe.
Topic:
Economics, Regulation, Risk, and Shadow Banking
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia