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2. The Conventional Wisdom About the Chinese Military Challenge: Incomplete and Unpersuasive
- Author:
- Steven Kosiak
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Now possessing the world’s largest economy and backed up by an increasingly capable military, in recent years China has grown into an ever more significant and complex concern for the United States, its friends and allies, and others in the Indo–Pacific region. It has become not only stronger and more capable but, in a variety of areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, more assertive. In this light, it is only prudent that the United States remain engaged in the region and, along with its allies, maintain robust military capabilities. At the same time, however, it is difficult to understand some of the main features of what has emerged as the conventional wisdom concerning the magnitude, scope and shape of the challenge China represents, particularly in its military dimensions. Among other things, shortcomings in the conventional wisdom include the unsettling degree to which mainstream assessments of the Chinese military challenge have: • devoted enormous attention to various Taiwan contingencies and, by comparison, remarkably little attention to the Chinese military’s capacity — or lack thereof — to directly conquer or coerce any of the major powers in the region; • equated defending Taiwan, and other relatively small nearby economies, with preventing Chinese regional hegemony, without providing significant analytical support for the presumption; • argued that Taiwan is defensible, in part because of the vulnerability of seaborne invasion forces to precision-guided munitions, as well as the difficulties inherent strategies aimed at punishing adversaries into submission (e.g., through bombardment or blockade) — while seeming to ignore the logical inferences of those conclusions for the defensibility of the major powers in the region, which are larger, economically stronger and generally located much farther from China; • analogized the challenge posed by China today to the threats posed by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War Two and the Soviet Union during the Cold War in ways that — because of differences in, among other things, geography, technology, nationalism, and China’s role in the global economy (including its great dependence on international trade) — may do more to obscure than illuminate the challenge. These analytical shortcomings need to be addressed through additional, more rigorous and better focused research and analysis. While clearly needed, however, it seems unlikely that this additional analysis will come close to fully redeeming the conventional wisdom about the Chinese military challenge as articulated today, including the necessity of some key components of the U.S. military’s existing force structure, modernization and other plans. Taken together, the gaps, weaknesses, blind spots, and analytical leaps upon which the conventional wisdom rests appear too pervasive and deep for such to be the case. Given this reality, rather than the current U.S. strategy, embracing something akin to the Active Denial strategy proposed by a Quincy Institute panel in 2022 would seem to represent a more prudent approach. 1 This strategy embraces some cuts to force structure — especially among ground forces — yielding significant budgetary savings. But it retrains robust air, naval and other forces that would leave the U.S. military with a powerful capacity to deter and, if need be, counter Chinese aggression in the Indo–Pacific and, specifically, to support key U.S. allies and friends in the region. And better addressing the areas noted above could go far towards facilitating the refinement of this more restrained strategy, and ensuring that it is both as effective as possible and can be supported at an affordable and sustainable price.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Influence, and Military
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, and United States of America
3. Chinese Cyber Nationalism During the Pandemic: A Discourse Analysis of Zhihu
- Author:
- Talkeetna Saiget
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 global pandemic has elicited a rise in cyber nationalism in China, as the world’s most populous nation outperformed the “scientifically” advanced western nations in the handling of the crisis. Chinese netizens on social messaging platform Zhihu cite upsurging cases of COVID-19 and death tolls in western countries as evidence of China’s zero-COVID strategy success, and have generated a new trend of Chinese cyber nationalism. Within this new trend, positive perceptions of western countries and their ideologies declined greatly. As previous studies have predicted, Chinese netizens are becoming more and more disappointed in western countries and “have no choice but to side with China.” This has also prompted China to be more confident in challenging the global narrative and seeking to guide the international order on COVID-related issues amid the China-US rivalry and thus facilitating a strong emotion of “China against the West.” However, this strong surge of emotion does not accurately translate into support of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID-19 policy.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, COVID-19, Cyberspace, and Zero-COVID
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
4. The Dilemma of the Chinese Diaspora in the Decoupling Era
- Author:
- Rong Xiaoqing and Qin Gao
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- For a long time, the Chinese diaspora living in the US has played a critical role in building the bridge between China and the US, a role that had been appreciated by both the American and Chinese governments and businesses. But the increasing hostility between the two countries in recent times has undermined these efforts. The deepening tensions have been broadly covered by the media but there has been a lot less attention paid to how this has created perilous situation for many Chinese living in the US. Amid the rising nationalism in both countries, Chinese in the US are often looked at with suspicion, and some have been accused of spying for China. Meanwhile, Chinese immigrants are called “betrayers” of their motherland by fervent nationalists in China simply because they left the country. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic adds to their stress level and makes every Chinese in the US vulnerable as anti-Asian hate crime surges. The speaker, who has been covering the Chinese diaspora in the US for more than two decades and is the author of the New York Times’ recently launched weekly newsletter “Overseas Chinese Journal,” will discuss the struggles of Chinese living in the US in today’s heated political climate, the pain of connecting to both countries but not being accepted by either, their dilemma of picking sides (or not) between the two nations and their confusion about race, nationality, roots, and identity in a decoupling era. She will also shed light on how the media coverage sometimes helps promote the misperceptions about the Chinese community. Rong Xiaoqing is the author of The New York Times’ weekly newsletter “Overseas Chinese Journal.” She is also a reporter for the Chinese language Sing Tao Daily in New York and an Alicia Patterson Fellow (2019). She writes for various English and Chinese language publications in the US and China. Her articles appeared in Foreign Policy, the National Review, The New York Times, the New York Daily News, the South China Morning Post, and China Newsweek, among others. Rong has won multiple awards from the Society of Professional Journalists, The Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY, and New America Media. She was the first reporter from a non-English language media to win an award from the Deadline Club. She was a grant recipient of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, the Fund for Investigative Journalism, and the California Health Endowment. This event is part of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute series “Asia in Action: Knowledge and Inclusion in a Time of Fear and Ignorance" and cosponsored by the China Center for Social Policy at Columbia University.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Diaspora, Media, and Nationality
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
5. Chinese Nationalism and the “Gray Zone”: Case Analyses of Public Opinion and PRC Maritime Policy
- Author:
- Andrew Chubb
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This volume examines the role of popular nationalism in China’s maritime conduct. Analysis of nine case studies of assertive but ostensibly nonmilitary actions by which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has advanced its position in the South and East China Seas in recent years reveals little compelling evidence of popular sentiment driving decision-making. While some regard for public opinion demonstrably shapes Beijing’s propaganda strategies on maritime issues, and sometimes its diplomatic practices as well, the imperative for Chinese leaders to satisfy popular nationalism is at most a contributing factor to policy choices they undertake largely on the basis of other considerations of power and interest. Where surges of popular nationalism have been evident, they have tended to follow after the PRC maritime actions in question, suggesting instead that Chinese authorities channeled public opinion to support existing policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Navy, Maritime, and Oceans and Seas
- Political Geography:
- China
6. Uncertain Days for Scholars as Sino-U.S. Tensions Rise
- Author:
- Jeremy A. Murray
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Cultural and educational exchanges between the United States and China have become pawns in an increasingly fraught relationship. But maintaining and deepening these ties will prevent a return to the dangerous mutual ignorance of the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Education, Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, Culture, and Academia
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
7. Australia as a Rising Middle Power
- Author:
- Malcolm Davis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the key drivers shaping Australia’s role as a middle power in an era of intensifying US-China strategic competition. These drivers include the influence of strategic geography; its historical legacy in international affairs; the impact of its economic relationships with states in the Indo-Pacific region; the changing demands of defence policy, including the potential offered by rapid technological change; and, the impact of climate change, resource constraints and demographic factors. The paper considers three possible scenarios that will shape Australia’s middle power policy choices – a US-China strategic equilibrium; a “China crash” scenario that promotes a more nationalist and assertive Chinese foreign policy; and a third “major power conflict” scenario where competition extends into military conflict. The paper concludes that Australia cannot maintain a delicate balance between its strategic alliance with the US and trading relationship with China. It argues there is a need for Australia to adopt a deeper strategic alliance with the US while promoting closer ties with its partners in the Indo-Pacific and supporting the growth of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific region to counterbalance growing Chinese power. Australia needs to embrace an Indo-Pacific step up, and as a middle power, reduce the prospect of a Sino-centric regional order emerging.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nationalism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, Australia, and Indo-Pacific
8. Foreign Aid in an Era of Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Andrew S. Natsios
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade the international political system has evolved into a state of great power rivalry in which the United States is challenged for international leadership by a rising China and a rapidly re-arming, revanchist Russia. A new militant nationalism is spreading across the globe; democracy appears to be in retreat as aggrieved populations turn to populist authoritarianism as a remedy. This rising political and strategic competition has now crossed over into the international development space.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Foreign Aid, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9. The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Eleanore Ardemagni, Jesse Marks, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Allison Spencer Hartnett, Ezzeldeen al-Natour, Laith al-Ajlouni, Carla Abdo-Katsipis, Lucia Ardovini, Yasmine Zarhloule, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Brent E. Sasley, Ehud Eiran, Sally Sharif, Diana Galeeva, Matthew Hedges, Elham Fakhro, Kristin Diwan, Guy Burton, Ruth Hanau Santini, Justin Schon, Alex Thurston, Adam Hoffmann, and Robert Kubinec
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- This special issue of POMEPS STUDIES collects twenty contributions from a wide range of young scholars writing from diverse perspectives, which collectively offer a fascinating overview of a region whose governance failures, economic inequalities and societal resilience were all suddenly thrown into sharp relief.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Islam, Nationalism, United Nations, Governance, Authoritarianism, Refugees, Inequality, Conflict, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Morocco
10. China’s Role in India’s Hindu Nationalist Discourse
- Author:
- Rush Doshi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- "Hindu nationalism risks pushing India into war with China,” blared the headline from China’s nationalist tabloid, Global Times. Meanwhile, in Washington, a wide-ranging network of analysts optimistic on U.S.-India ties similarly argue that India’s nationalist political forces will push the country further away from Beijing and likely closer to Washington. These are bold claims about the ways in which national identity will intersect with great power politics. But are they correct? That question is now more urgent than ever. The Bhartiya Janata Party’s (BJP) sweeping victory in the May 2019 elections shows that Hindu nationalism is the potent political force reshaping the country. But what role does China play in Hindu nationalist narratives, and how might those narratives affect China policy? This paper explores the various threads of Hindu nationalism and chronicles the relatively limited role that China plays within them. First, it explores the history of Hindu nationalism as a political force in India, demonstrating its tendency to view Islam – rather than the West or China – as the salient other. The key nationalist policy priorities for Hindu nationalists–including the introduction of a Uniform Civil Code that reduces sharia’s role in civil law, the repeal of Article 370 of India’s Constitution that protects Kashmir’s special status, and the construction of a Ram temple at Ayodhya on the grounds of what was once a mosque – are all issues that implicate Hindu relations with Islam. Second, after making the argument that Hindu nationalism is primarily focused on Islam, the paper then turns to analyzing China’s role in nationalist ideology. It argues that China plays a relatively limited and often contradictory role in nationalist discourse despite the increasingly contentious Sino-Indian relationship. Hindu nationalists view China through a variety of lenses – sovereignty, trade, and values – each of which produces a different perspective and precludes a singular, unified Hindu nationalist view of China. And in some areas, Hindu nationalists even admire Chinese approaches.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Religion, Political Parties, Domestic Policy, and Hinduism
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
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