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2. Implications of a Melting Arctic
- Author:
- Sascha Glaeser
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Melting ice is making the Arctic more accessible, which in turn may affect three key issues in the region—militarization, maritime trade, and natural resource development. U.S. security interests in the Arctic remain deterring an attack on the United States and NATO allies and ensuring the lawful use of Arctic waters. The United States can secure both at minimum cost and risk. Greater accessibility does not increase threats emanating from the Arctic, so the United States does not need to do more militarily to ensure its security. Militarization absent threats could lead to a destabilizing security dilemma. Trans-Arctic maritime trade routes and natural resource development present potential economic opportunities; however, both still face significant challenges that limit their near-term viability. The United States should be vigilant to Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic and avoid overreacting or reflexively mirroring their behavior. A U.S. Arctic strategy built on the reality that the United States enjoys a strong conventional and nuclear deterrent, a robust network of Arctic allies, and favorable geography, is the best avenue to protect U.S. interests and keep the Arctic at peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, Trade, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America
3. What do we know about cyber operations during militarized crises?
- Author:
- Michael Fischerkeller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Department of Defense (DoD) will soon kick off the drafting of its cyber strategy and cyber posture review to align US cyber capabilities and operating concepts with the foreign policy objectives of the Joseph Biden-Kamala Harris administration. Given that the administration describes China as the “pacing threat,” debates over the best use of cyber operations and campaigns will likely be framed by US-China interaction in day-to-day competition, and by a potential militarized crisis and war over the status of Taiwan. This essay focuses on how cyber operations employed during militarized crises are likely to impact escalation management. Policymakers may be attracted to the idea that cyber operations could serve as de-escalatory offramps in a crisis. Such expectations should be tempered, if not completely set aside, for two reasons. First, there is no experience with cyber operations employed during a militarized crisis between two nuclear-armed peers. Absent direct experience, all one can rely on is academic research. Yet, secondly, deductive and empirical academic research provides no basis for confidence that cyber operations are either de-escalatory or non-escalatory in the context of militarized crises.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cybersecurity, Crisis Management, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
4. The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India’s Competition with China
- Author:
- Arzan Tarapore
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The still-unresolved Ladakh crisis has created a new strategic reality for India, marked by renewed political hostility with China, and an increased militarisation of the Line of Actual Control. This new strategic reality imposes unequal costs on India and China. India is likely to defer much-needed military modernisation and maritime expansion into the Indian Ocean — which would impair its ability to compete strategically with China. In contrast, China incurred only marginal material costs; it was probably more concerned with the prospect of continued deterioration in its relationship with India. Even that cost was more threatened rather than realised, and largely reduced when the disengagement plan was agreed.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Strategic Competition, Militarization, and Disengagement
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
5. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise
- Author:
- Rachel Esplin Odell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
- Topic:
- Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea