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362. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players
- Author:
- Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea
363. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
364. "Animal Spirits" and Policy Stimulants
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The policy stimulants administered in very large doses to the U.S. economy at midyear are wearing off fast. China's boom, while not ending, is cooling. The result of those two facts will be U.S. growth of 3 percent or less in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of next before tax rebates kick in to provide a lone quarter of 4 percent growth next spring. Then it will be back to 3 percent, plus or minus half a percent, in the second half of 2004 as the boost from tax cuts fades, provided stock markets hold up.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
365. China's Trade Opening: Implications for Regional Stability
- Author:
- Howard M. Krawitz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In late 2001, China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), a dramatic step that marks not only the end of a 15-year odyssey for Beijing but also the beginning of a new phase in the country's internal development and its relations with the outside world. It may sound odd to suggest that joining the WTO—an organization focused on rules of conduct for trade and commerce—will influence not only China's economy but also its political, military, and social development, as well as its interaction with the United States. Yet China's efforts to play by WTO rules could affect its internal development far more extensively than has been the case with many new member nations.
- Topic:
- Security and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
366. China — Securities Opening
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued rules on June 3 outlining the participation of foreign firms in fund management and securities business. Issued earlier than expected, the rules re-state concessions made in the trade and investment agreement China signed with the United States in November 1999. Modernisation and liberalisation of the sector is a prerequisite to channelling more of China's 1 trillion dollars of private savings to equity investment.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
367. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?
- Author:
- Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Security and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia
368. What Drove Relative Wages in France? Structural Decomposition Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework, 1970-92
- Author:
- Sébastien Jean and Olivier Bontout
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper confronts a CGE model to observed evolutions in France, between 1970 and 1992, through a structural decomposition analysis. The choice of the model and the assumption of constant elasticities over time enable the structural change of the economy between two equilibria to be summarised through a set of four types of state variables, reflecting the effect of technical change, changes in factor supplies, shifts in consumption patterns, and international trade. Simulations then allow the contribution of each of these shocks to be assessed. We find that technical change had a strong positive impact on the relative wage of skilled to unskilled workers, while the impact of changes in factor supplies is strongly negative. The effect of international trade is far less important. However, if we take into account a trade-induced effect on productivity, then we find that trade substantially increased wage inequalities.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and France
369. Evolution of Japan's Policy Toward Economic Integration
- Author:
- Naoko Munakata
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- On October 22, 2000, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong agreed to formal negotiations for the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement for a New Age Partnership (JSEPA) in January 2001, in light of the September 2000 report from the Japan-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (JSFTA) Joint Study Group. It was the first time Japan entered into negotiations concerning regional economic integration. With a strong emphasis on the need to address the new challenges globalization and technological progress pose; the Joint Study Group explored a possible .New Age FTA. between the two countries, which Prime Minister Goh proposed in December 1999. Thus, for Japan the JSEPA marked a major turning point in promoting regional economic integration.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and Asia
370. The Japan-China Summit and Joint Declaration of 1998: A Watershed for Japan-China Relations in the 21st Century?
- Author:
- Kazuo Sato
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The November 1998 state visit to Japan by Chinese President Jiang Zemin was historically significant in that it was the first visit to Japan by a Chinese head of state. However, many people, including policymakers in Japan, had the impression that the visit not only failed to promote Japan-China relations, but actually strengthened anti-Chinese sentiments among the Japanese public. Nevertheless, both governments treated the Japan-China Joint Declaration On Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development—issued by the two governments on the occasion of visit—as a third important bilateral document, following the 1972 Joint Communiqué and the 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship. The two sides repeatedly have stressed that all problems should be handled in line with these three documents. There is a belief, especially among policymakers, that the 1998 Joint Declaration will be the bilateral framework upon which a strong partnership will be built for at least the first decade of the 21st century.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia