Search

Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography China

281. Foreign Direct Investment from China, India and South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New or Old Phenomenon?

Author:
John Henley, Stefan Kratzsch, Tamer Tandogan, and Mithat Külür
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The burgeoning literature on outward foreign direct investment from emerging markets has largely focused on analysing the motives of investors as reported by parent companies. This paper, instead, focuses on firm-level investments originating from China, India or South Africa in fifteen host countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis is based on a sub-set of firms drawn from the overall sample of 1,216 foreign-owned firms participating in the UNIDO Africa Foreign Investor Survey, carried out in 2005. The sample of investments originating from China, India and South Africa is analysed in terms of firm characteristics, past and forecast performance in SSA over three years and management's perception of ongoing business conditions. Comparisons are made with foreign investors from the North. The paper concludes that while investors in SSA from the three countries are primarily using their investment to target specific markets, they are largely operating in different sub-sectors. While there appear to be specific features that firms from a given country of origin share, there are no obvious operating-level features they all share apart from market seeking.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, and South Africa

282. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

283. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach

Author:
Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

284. The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System

Author:
Silvia Nenci
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

285. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

286. Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:
William Chandler
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and China seemingly remain locked in a climate suicide pact, each arguing the other is the reason for inaction. U.S.–China climate cooperation is urgently needed to avert climate disaster. The current situation of the energy sectors in the United States and China offers a solution. China and the United States can set and cooperate to achieve national goals and implement enforceable measures. If this U.S.– China policy experiment works, China and the United States could develop packages of policies and measures, test them for efficacy, correct them, and share them with other countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

287. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

288. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

289. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

290. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

Author:
Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia