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2. Which companies are ahead in frontier innovation on critical technologies? Comparing China, the European Union and the United States
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Michal Krystyanczuk, and Robin Schindowski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Competition in critical technologies is attracting increasing attention not only because of the foundational nature of these technologies for other types of innovation, but also because of their role in the United States national security strategy. In this paper, we look into which entities in China, the European Union and the US innovate at the technology frontier in the three most important critical technologies – artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors – based on identification of the most radical novel patents in these technologies and their subsectors. Working with these pathbreaking patents, we look into the origin of the companies that file the largest numbers of them. US innovators dominate the innovation frontier for quantum computing and, to a lesser extent, AI, with Chinese innovators doing better in semiconductors. European innovators lag in all, but perform relatively better in quantum computing, in which they rank similarly to Chinese innovators. Furthermore, the innovation ecosystem is quite different across geographies. In the US, tech companies top the rankings of critical novelties and are highly concentrated: as many as three companies are in the top rankings of all of the three critical technologies. Frontier innovators in the field in which the EU competes most equally – quantum – are mostly research centres and not companies. China lies somewhat in between in all three domains.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
3. Will China’s economy follow the same path as Japan’s?
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Since the bursting of China’s real-estate bubble in mid-2021, there has been a growing concern that the Chinese economy could end up like that of Japan in the early 1990s. Some structural patterns are strikingly similar: low private consumption over a long period, especially when compared to the rest of the world, and an excessively high savings ratio, though China’s imbalances now are even larger that Japan’s were then. Initial policy responses to the bursting of their respective bubbles have also been similar. Both China now and Japan then were initially hesitant to ease monetary and fiscal policies, and opted to expand manufacturing, with an eye on external demand, supported by more research and development expenditure. In both cases, the outcomes were stubborn trade surpluses and a mercantilist attitude to their growth problems, leading to the United States taking protectionist measures. China also seems to be following Japan’s offshoring of production to mitigate the impact of protectionism. The main difference, though, is that China now is a poorer country than Japan was then, with still more convergence opportunities ahead. China is also a much bigger military and geopolitical contender than Japan ever was. China’s geopolitical weight is behind the US technological containment of China, but also gives China more room for manoeuvre globally, especially in the Global South. It remains unclear – though globally significant – whether China will be able to deviate from the path followed by Japan in the 1980s and 1990s.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Real Estate
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
4. The Quantum Race: U.S.-Chinese Competition for Leadership in Quantum Technologies
- Author:
- Juljan Krause
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Quantum computing is poised to unleash innovation across various sectors, from materials science to pharmaceutical and medical research, finance, logistics, and even climate change management. Quantum computing also has the potential to provide the backbone for future artificial intelligence and autonomous systems that cannot be realized with digital hardware alone, while quantum communication can strengthen security in cyberspace. For these reasons, quantum technologies feature prominently in the emerging technologies race between the United States and China. In this policy brief, IGCC postdoctoral fellow Juljan Krause analyzes China’s advances in quantum communication, which aim to signal China’s technological leadership while protecting Chinese communications from foreign surveillance. He argues that Chinese leadership in quantum communication will have strategic repercussions, particularly as it is likely to give China’s efforts to shape global industry standards additional momentum. Even if quantum communication has no immediate military implications, policymakers should consider how the technology could embolden China further.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Quantum Computers
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
5. The Western Innovators of the Mobile Revolution: The Data on Global Royalty Flows to U.S. and Europe and Why It Matters
- Author:
- Adam Mossoff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- The mobile revolution has radically altered our world in ways that were imagined only as science fiction a mere thirty years ago. Western innovators launched this revolution in creating its foundational telecommunications technologies; thus, it is unsurprising that private companies in the United States and Europe receive payments for the use of their telecommunications technologies, which is compensation for the billions in investments and decades of research and development of these inventions. The majority of the commercial implementers—the companies that make and sell consumer products that use these telecommunications technologies like smartphones or connected cars—are in Asia. China in particular has an increasingly growing share of these implementers across all sectors of the global innovation economy. This explains in part China’s domestic industrial policies that seek to lower the royalties paid by its national companies like Huawei or Oppo. Evidence-based policymaking should guide U.S. and European laws and regulations. Data confirm the critical role of reliable and effective patent rights, the rule of law, and courts using due process to resolve disputes have been essential for Western innovators creating the modern world—and will drive the technologies of tomorrow in the internet of things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI).
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Telecommunications
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
6. Kubernetes: A Dilemma in the Geopolitical Tech Race
- Author:
- Sunny Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- US-sanctioned Huawei has significant influence in the Cloud Native Computing Foundation and its open-source platform Kubernetes, which underpins US military platforms, including F-16 fighter jets and nuclear infrastructure. The use of open-source technologies in critical systems raises concerns. Despite US efforts to mitigate risks, Kubernetes remains tempting to exploit for attackers. Open source fosters global innovation, from which the United States benefits. But this same openness also strengthens US competitors. The United States should therefore develop a clear framework to understand and mitigate the challenges posed by open source.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Huawei
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
7. Driving Change: How EVs Are Reshaping China’s Economic Relationship with Latin America
- Author:
- Ilaria Mazzocco, Ryan C. Berg, and Rubi Bledsoe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are navigating a new geopolitical moment. Some LAC countries are benefitting from increased access to low-cost, high-quality electric vehicles (EVs) and new investment throughout the value chain from China that can help meet governments’ climate and economic objectives. However, this comes with risks, as dependencies on Beijing may be exacerbated at a time when China’s economy is underperforming and geopolitical competition with the United States is on the rise. Washington should find new ways to engage with the region to find solutions that address local demands and simultaneously mitigate U.S. geopolitical risk.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Economy, Innovation, and Electric Vehicles
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Latin America
8. Hidden Champions of the Chinese Economy: Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Seungshin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews China's policy of nurturing small and medium sized enterprises. The Chinese government is expanding its establishment of national manufacturing innovation centers necessary to promote national strategies. It plays a very important role in the financial support process for these hidden champions. This is because the government certification process to identify hidden champions is linked to direct and indirect financial support using government and private capital. This paper attempted to analyze the management situation and export competitiveness of listed hidden champions. As a result of analyzing the trade statistics of materials, parts, and equipment from 2012 to 2022, when China's policy of cultivating foster hidden champions was fully implemented, the global trade balance of the China's materials, parts, and equipment industry increased significantly from a deficit of $55.6 billion in 2012 to a surplus of $264.1 billion in 2022. The improvement of China's competitiveness in the fields of materials, parts, and equipment can also be seen as a change in the trade specialization index (TSI) of these industries. Looking at China's global trade specialization index for materials, parts, and equipment, it was import-specialized at -0.033 in 2012, but rose to 0.100 in 2022, improving export competitiveness. Korea should recognize the changes in the trade and industrial structure between Korea and China and form a new paradigm of economic cooperation to overcome the limitations of economic exchanges between the two countries. China, which used to be seen as a manufacturing base for other countries, must now be seen as an advanced country in new industries with which the current structure of economic cooperation structure must be modified accordingly.
- Topic:
- Economy, Business, Innovation, Trade, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South Korea
9. The Great Reset and the Near-Term Implications for the Chinese Economy
- Author:
- R. Reghunanadhan and J. T. Karackattu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The Great Reset has had a severe impact on the Chinese economy, with implications domestically, and on the global supply chain. One consequence has been the decline in the overall market demand in China, with a significant negative impact on infrastructure development and the labour industry. A unique aspect is a survey is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on innovation and integration of digital technologies in China. The authors explicate the impact of the Great Reset on the Chinese economy, the implications on the supply chains that China is a crucial part of, and the global implications thereof.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Economy, Innovation, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Great Reset
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
10. China’s quest for innovation: progress and bottlenecks
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- As the Chinese economy continues to decelerate, the central government is investing heavily in innovation, doubling down on research and development (R&D) spending and STEM-oriented human capital. In this paper, we assess China’s progress so far, looking at the inputs to innovation (R&D and human capital) as well as intermediate targets, such as scientific research and patents. We then evaluate how China has fared with respect to the ultimate goal of commercialising this progress, by looking at the value-added of Chinese exports and the overall productivity of the economy. We identify three potential bottlenecks that might be hindering the translation of China’s innovation efforts into productivity growth.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, Innovation, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia