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271. The Politics of Interdependence: A Case of ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor

Author:
Manzoor Khan Afridi and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China-Pakistan strategic partnership is evolving into the politics of interdependence by encompassing not only the defense dimension but also the trade, investment, energy and infrastructure development. The proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a mega project which will connect the north-western Sinkiang autonomous region‘s Kashgar city with the Pakistan‘s Gwadar Port. It is equally important both for China and Pakistan on the one hand and for the regional states of South Asia, Middle East, landlocked Central Asia and East Asia, on the other. It will provide China a shortest route of about 2500 kilometers to link with Middle East by the Pakistan‘s much needed road and railway network. A huge amount of 46 billion US dollars is allocated for the project to uplift Pakistan‘s development by meeting the energy needs, building industrial parks and economic zones. This paper will use the paradigm of interdependence to analyze the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Interdependence is a broad term which refers to such situations of reciprocal effects among the states or actors in different states. It is not only applicable to political-military interdependence but also to politicaleconomic interdependence. Here in the case it has been observed that with the rise of China and its rapidly growing economy, a relatively peaceful environment and neighborhood is imperative. With the completion of CPEC, this interdependence seems to be transformed into Complex Interdependence by creating more peaceful environment and war; costly.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

272. China’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Umbreen Javaid and Meer Waheed
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The importance of energy rich Middle East region for competing oil dependent economies of China and U.S.A is becoming more intriguing calling for cautious analytical insights for a better understanding. The convergence of interest of U.S and China coupled with the volatile political environment associated with this region questions the notion of „peaceful rise of China‟, the nature of its role in the region, and its commitment to retain neutrality which is analyzed in this paper by drawing inferences from its overall foreign policy behavior in the global affairs China is emerging as an influential actor in international politics owing to its massive economic strength coupled with rapidly developing military might and advancements in science and technology. China‟s journey of development is necessarily hinged upon an uninterrupted supply of energy which is the life line of both its economic and military prowess and in that context the importance of oil rich Middle East region becomes manifold owing to the major chunks of the crude oil china imports from this region. The strategic importance of Middle East region for the U.S.A is also an established fact that presents an interesting case study for analyzing future course of China-U.S strategic relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and United States of America

273. Bringing Home the Gold? A Review of the Economic Impact of Hosting Mega-Events

Author:
Douglas Barrios, Stuart Russell, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
There is perhaps no larger sports policy decision than the decision to host or bid to host a mega-event like the FIFA World Cup or the Summer Olympics. Hosts and bidders usually justify their decisions by touting their potential impact. Many organizers and promoters either fund or widely disseminate ex-ante studies that tend to highlight the positive effects of the event. For instance, the consultancy firm Ernst & Young produced a 2010 report prior to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil that painted an optimistic picture of the event’s potential legacy. It estimated that an additional R$ 142.39 billion (4.91% of 2010 GDP) would flow through the Brazilian economy over the 2010-2014 period, generating 3.63 million jobs per year, R$ 63.48 billion (2.17% of 2010 GDP) of income for the population and additional tax collection of R$ 18.13 billion (0.62% of 2010 GDP) for the local, state and federal governments. Ernst & Young estimated that during the same period 2.98 million additional visitors would travel to Brazil, increasing the international tourist inflow up to 79%. Such results, if true, would clearly attractive for governments considering a bid, but these expected impacts don’t always materialize. Moreover, hosting mega-events requires significant investments - and the cost of these investments is rising. Zimbalist notes emerging economies like China, Brazil, and South Africa have increasingly perceived "mega-events as a sort of coming-out party signaling that [they are] now a modernized economy, ready to make [their] presence felt in world trade and politics" (Zimbalist 2015). Their intentions may be noble, but the intention of using mega-events as a "coming-out party" means developing countries hoping to host them need to make massive investments. They are confronted by significant obstacles in that they lack sufficient stadiums, accommodations, transportation systems, and other sports-related infrastructure. As a result, each of the mega-events hosted by emerging economies has been exorbitantly expensive. The 2014 World Cup cost Brazil between USD 15 billion and USD 20 billion, while Beijing reportedly spent USD 40 billion prior to the 2008 Summer Olympic (Zimbalist 2015). Additionally, as the debt-ridden 1976 Summer Olympics in Montreal demonstrates, expensive mega-events are not limited to emerging economies alone. Flyvbjerg and Stewart have even shown that every Olympics since 1960 has gone over budget (Flyvbjerg and Stewart 2012). Such incredible figures, in terms of both costs and benefits, beget the question: are mega-events worth it? Which type of reports should governments focus their attention on? What economic consequences should a government reasonably expect? With such high stakes, policymakers need to choose wisely. We attempt to answer these questions and aid the decisions of policymakers by providing a concise review of the rich academic literature on mega-events. For the purposes of this paper, we mainly focus on the Summer Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup as mega-events. However, we also leverage information regarding events like the Winter Olympic Games, the UEFA football championships, and the Commonwealth Games. These events are organized on a smaller scale than the previous two, but they might provide some insights on how to best understand mega-events. We focus on claims surrounding the direct or indirect mechanisms that facilitate the impact that ex-ante studies predict. We provide a review of these claims and their validity according to the existing literature. Section 1 focuses on the argument that mega-events lead to increased economic activity in the host economy. Specifically, we evaluate whether or not mega-events leads to access to previously inaccessible funds and increased investments. These investments could theoretically come from supranational organizations, private stakeholders, or public stakeholders. We also consider whether or not these new expenditures and investments have the multiplicative effect that many ex-ante studies assume they have. We finally investigate if the economic activity surrounding mega-events leads to increased revenues and tax collection for host governments. Overall, the existing academic literature suggests that any increased economic activity resulting from the event is routinely dwarfed by additional public budgetary commitments. Moreover, the arguments regarding multiplicative effects and increased revenues also tend to be exaggerated. Section 2 shifts the focus to the potential impact of mega-events on a specific industry: tourism. We explore the effect of mega-events on the number of tourists visiting the host region and their spending habits. We explore this channel both for analyses specific to a single mega-event and for cross-country evaluations incorporating many events. Next, we consider the impact of a mega-event on a region’s brand and image in the international community with the idea of testing if hosting the competition will impact future tourism. Finally, we consider if mega-events lead to increases in the capacity of a city or country to welcome future tourists as a result of improved airport infrastructure, accommodations, and/or transportation systems. As was true in Section 1, the academic literature suggests that the claims of many ex-ante studies are misleading. Our review finds that there is some evidence for increases in tourist arrivals to certain events, but those increases are far smaller than what is generally predicted beforehand. These effects are also usually dependent on factors, such as the timing of the competition, that are specific to the host region and the event itself. Section 3 briefly discusses other potential qualitative and social impacts of mega-events such as international business relations, crime reduction, and the "feel-good effect." In the penultimate section, Section 4, we discuss how these conclusions should impact the decision-making of policymakers. Finally, in a short conclusion, we summarize the findings of our review.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Sports, Economy, Olympics, and World Cup
Political Geography:
China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

274. China and the World in the Coming Decade

Author:
Shyam Saran
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In the next decade, how US-China relations unfold will shape the external environment for countries like India. How does China perceive the Trump presidency?
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trump
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

275. Impact of China Slowdown on India

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna and Ankit Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

276. China Dream: Still Coming True?

Author:
Alessia Amighini
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
At a time when the economic transition in China is casting shadows on the weak world recovery, and the country is further increasing military spending at double-digit rates, it is key to assess how far President Xi has gone in fulfilling the “China Dream” of ascendance to cultural, economic and military power. Even more important is to try to figure out what the substance of the “China Dream” is likely to be in the near future. The current risk is that the Chinese people and the Chinese government are dreaming different dreams, and that Xi’s “China Dream” might be more a dream for the country and much less so for the people. China has recently reached a series of symbolic milestones: the Yuan’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket; the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); the market economy status by a number of countries. The 2016 Chinese G20 Presidency will provide a timely occasion for China to better define its role in global economic governance. However, progress on reforms is lagging behind expectations and international tensions are on the rise. This volume explores the viability of the China Dream and analyzes its major challenges.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Xi Jinping, Military, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

277. International Experience of and Policy Suggestions on Innovation and Entrepreneurship Oriented Incubators

Author:
Pangoal Institution
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
In the 2015 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang has mentioned twice the concept of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”. He stresses that along with greater supplies of public goods and services, these will become the twin engines to drive the development and upgrade of China’s economy. At the same time, innovation is a critical impetus to revolutionize traditional industries and build new economic engine. Innovation and entrepreneurship oriented incubator, as an important carrier of new innovation service platform that meets the need to establish maker space in the network age, has attracted more and more public attention. Since its birth in the late 1950s, innovation and entrepreneurship oriented incubator has been a strong impetus to the economic prosperity of different countries and regions in the world and also plays a prominent role in nurturing small and medium enterprises and creating jobs. As the birthplace of the incubator, the United States has established a relatively mature incubator industry operation mechanism after experiencing the four stages of initial creation, multi-functional development, high-speed growth and innovative transformation. The US has become the global leader in the field of Innovation and entrepreneurship oriented incubator with its innovative incubator model featuring “business accelerator” and “virtual incubator”. Despite its later start than the US in this field, Germany has formed its own shareholding incubator model centered on interest chain and incubator model linked by intermediary service agency as well as international expansion model featuring overseas incubator, which shows a tendency to surpass the US. In France, many incubator models such as the ones funded by the government, the ones comprehensively and the ones established by enterprises have gained fairly good results. Israel, which used to be a small developing country with a low population and poor resource, has now became a developed country with its high-tech industries significantly promoted by incubator.
Topic:
Development, Entrepreneurship, Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

278. The Strategic Duel over Taiwan

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are firmly entrenched in what will be a long and intense strategic competition for dominance over the Pacific Rim. American strategists Andrew Marshall, Robert Kaplan, and Aaron Friedberg began foretelling of this great power struggle over a decade ago.[1]. They recognized before anyone else that there are strong forces underpinning the U.S.-China rivalry. The two countries’ political systems and national interests stand in fundamental opposition. This is why, despite Washington’s reluctance to officially admit it, strategic competition between the U.S. and the PRC is unavoidable. ​ The United States, while an imperfect democracy, is an inspiration to people everywhere who yearn for the freedom and dignity that comes from having a representative government, independent legal system, and market economy. In the PRC, on the other hand, power is monopolized by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a political organization that is directly responsible for more human suffering than possibly any other regime past or present, anywhere in the world.[2] Numerous State Department reports detail the past and continuing human rights violations occurring under the watch of the CCP.[3] ​ For all its much ballyhooed economic reforms, China’s economy is still largely controlled by massive state-owned corporations, making it a mercantilist country, not a capitalist one.[4] Much of Beijing’s economic power ultimately stems from its remarkable ability to lure foreign business elites with promises of access to its huge market. Once the hook is set, China pockets their investments, steals their intellectual property, and undercuts their market competitiveness.[5] ​ Yet it is not the PRC’s unsavory political or economic practices that will ensure sustained U.S.-China competition over the coming decades, although future American presidents, like Barack Obama, will undoubtedly be tempted to paper over ideological differences for expedience sake. Rather, Beijing’s insecure and aggressive nature is at the root of the problem. In recent years, China has stoked maritime tensions with Japan and the Philippines, both treaty allies of the United States; provoked border clashes with India, a democratic nation and American security partner; and enabled nuclear missile proliferation amongst its friends: North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.[6] Track records tell a compelling story. The PRC’s track record indicates that a growing number of geostrategic issues could eventually result in a clash between the United States and China... ​
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Economy, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

279. Rethinking Monetary and Financial Policies in China

Author:
Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Da Young Yang
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
There is partial consensus that the size of money―or liquidity―in China should be large reflecting the high savings rate. Even so, with a sense of a liquidity overhang from the recent monetary expansion, many caution against expanding liquidity further lest it translate into a property bubble. Instead, they argue for ways to speed up the circulation of liquidity―in other words to raise velocity―to stimulate the real economy. The recent growth of the non-banking system adds to these concerns, and has been criticized as falling short of promoting effective financial intermediation. Some even claim that the monetary authorities may be losing control over the growth of key monetary aggregates. Against this background, this paper reviews recent monetary developments in China and considers how monetary aggregates and the financial system may have to change to support the rebalancing of the economy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

280. The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Territorial Dispute between Japan and China : Between the Materialization of the ‘China Threat’ and Japan ‘Reversing the Outcome of World War II’?

Author:
Reinhard Drifte
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The territorial dispute between Japan and China over the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is framed by economic interests, domestic circumstances, national identity issues, requirements of international law and historical grievances. The article provides an analysis of these issues which are indicative of the bilateral relationship in general. The analysis of the 1972-2010 period traces the reasons for the erosion of the implicit agreement in 1972 and 1978 between the two countries to shelve the territorial dispute, using Constructivist as well as Realist approaches. The second part contains a case study of the 2010 and the 2012/13 Senkaku incidents, the latter and most serious one started by Ishihara Shintaro, the right-wing Governor of Tokyo, when he declared in April 2012 his intention to have his local government buy some of the contested islands from its private owner which prompted the national government of Prime Minister Noda to buy them instead. The ensuing Chinese reaction has led to a crisis in the bilateral relationship which has political, military and economic implications of considerable importance for the future of Japan and China but also for the stability of the whole East Asian region.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Economy, and Law of the Sea
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and East China