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552. China Should Trust in Capital Markets
- Author:
- R. Glenn Hubbard and William Dudley
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- A critical factor in China's long-term economic growth is the development of its capital markets, which if properly organized could foster greater productivity, increased wages, and employment growth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China
553. CERI: Regional integration in Asia since China's entry into the WTO
- Author:
- Diana Hochraich
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries - which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products - have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China - the world's workshop - has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
554. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
555. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy
- Author:
- Richard B. Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe
556. What Went Right in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
557. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
558. America Demands; China Supplies
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Say's Law, named after French economist Jean- Baptiste Say (1767–1832), was promulgated at the time of the Industrial Revolution when some feared that purchasing power would be insufficient to absorb the ever-growing output of the newly mechanized economy. It states simply and reassuringly that supply creates its own demand. More specifically, the production of output tends to generate purchasing power equal to the value of that output.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
559. Globalization and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from within China
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- China's recent accession to the WTO is expected to accelerate its integration into the world economy, which aggravates concerns over the impact of globalization on the already rising inter-region income inequality in China. This paper discusses China's globalization process and estimates an income generating function, incorporating trade and FDI variables. It then applies the newly developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of globalization, along with other variables, to regional inequality. It is found that (a) globalization constitutes a positive and substantial share to regional inequality and the share rises over time; (b) capital is one of the largest and increasingly important contributor to regional inequality; (c) economic reform characterized by privatization exerts a significant impact on regional inequality; and (d) the relative contributions of education, location, urbanization and dependency ratio to regional inequality have been declining.
- Topic:
- Economics and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
560. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia