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351. China versus the Washington Consensus: The Anomaly for World Bank Advocacy Research (pdf)

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Chinese experience of economic transformation has presented a serious challenge to the Washington Consensus. Since the mid-1990s, institutions upholding the Washington Consensus have mostly excluded the Chinese experience – because of its conspicuous anomaly – in their attempts to interpret worldwide transition and development in line with their policy doctrines. Yet, China did in fact rigorously implement the policy doctrines in the years 1993-1997, but only to result in severe social and economic problems. Since 1998, in the face of the problems and because of increasingly social resistance to the mainstream policies, China has progressively turned to focus on “constructing a harmonious society”. This turn represents a quest for a model of social and economic development that deviates fundamentally from the Washington Consensus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, World Bank, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

352. Options for a Democratic Taiwan

Author:
Kerry Brown
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, as Mainland China has been developing and liberalizing its economy, Taiwan has been undergoing an equally remarkable but very different political transformation, from martial law in 1987 to its current status as one of the most vibrant, stable democracies in Asia. Despite its eventful experience of the democratization process, the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2008 proved that Taiwan is now a mature, and stable, democracy. It has passed the ultimate test, seeing the successful transition of rule from one party to another and back again, without social turmoil. Economic performance over the same period has been less striking. Once among the fastestgrowing economies, Taiwan is now afflicted by a relatively low growth rate, and problems over the outflow of capital and investment to the Mainland. The potential for conflict over cross-straits relations remains but it has been significantly reduced under President Ma and by the Mainland Chinese government's greater accommodation with a democratic Taiwan in the last decade. The risk of a military conflict between the two sides, which could drag in the US, and therefore the rest of the world, cannot be entirely discounted, however. Taiwan's greatest challenges in the next decade remain the same as in the last – to maintain its identity, to develop its democratic system, and to handle relations with the Mainland in a way that preserves its interests while avoiding conflict. Taiwan's system, which has so far proved itself robust and effective, faces a new challenge too: how to benefit from the increase in Mainland investment abroad.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, and Asia

353. Deng Undone: The Costs of Halting Market Reform in China

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Driven by a near obsession with economic growth, Beijing has extended the state's reach into the economy. Instead of urging the Chinese government to resume extensive market reforms, Washington should encourage it to focus on a narrow range of feasible measures.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Beijing

354. State Capitalism Comes of Age: The End of the Free Market?

Author:
Ian Bremmer
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Across the world, the free market is being overtaken by state capitalism, a system in which the state is the leading economic actor. How should the United States respond?
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

355. Necessity, Choice, and Common Sense: A Policy for a Bewildering World

Author:
Leslie H. Gelb
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The United States is declining as a nation and a world power. This is a serious yet reversible situation, so long as Americans are clear-eyed about the causes and courageous about implementing the cures, including a return to pragmatic problem solving.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

356. Population Policy, Economic Reform, and Fertility Decline in Guangdong Province, China

Author:
Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Cui Hongyan
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
China and Israel

357. The G20 Meetings: No Common Framework, No Consensus

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Participants in the recently completed G20 meeting in London agreed on a number of measures, some substantial and some merely symbolic, but they sidestepped the real issues dividing the major economic powers and, in so doing, failed to address the root causes of the global trade and investment imbalances. This was almost inevitable. China, Europe, and the United States have incompatible conceptual frameworks for understanding the causes of the global financial crisis; furthermore, their conflicting domestic political constraints make agreement on solutions hard to reach. Europeans believe that the root cause of the crisis was excessively deregulated financial systems, and they are skeptical about U.S. and Chinese calls for fiscal expansion, worrying that excessive spending would prolong the imbalances and make the ultimate adjustment more difficult. China also believes that the roots of the crisis lie within the structure of the global financial system, although Beijing insists that it was mainly the reserve status of the U.S. dollar that permitted imbalances to develop to unsustainable levels. China is particularly vulnerable to trade protection and seeks to maintain open markets for its continued export of domestic overcapacity. Like the United States, it is pushing for more aggressive, globally coordinated fiscal expansion. However, because of rigidities in its financial system and development model, its fiscal response to the crisis may exacerbate the difficult global adjustment and may, ironically, increase the chances of trade friction. In a time of contracting demand, the United States controls two-thirds of the most valuable resource in the world: net demand. Consequently, it is U.S. policies that will determine the pace and direction of the global recovery, along with the institutional framework that will govern trade and investment relationships for decades to come. The crisis puts the United States more firmly at the center of the emerging world order than ever. So far, the United States has not understood the need to consider the global outcomes of its recovery policies. Until the major powers can reach consensus about the roots of the imbalance and cooperate on policies to promote recovery, it is likely that the world economy will get worse before it gets better. The United States will drive the recovery process, but in order to do so effectively it will need to recognize its position of strength and negotiate the appropriate agreements with other major powers, especially China, on the pace and nature of the adjustment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and London

358. China's $1.5 Trillion Bet: Understanding China's External Portfolio

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper was originally published in January 2009. The May update incorporates quarter one 2009 data on China's foreign reserves, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) capital flows data for December, January, and February, and the results of the June 2008 survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. The June 2008 survey indicated that China bought fewer Treasury bonds and more equities than the authors estimated in the January paper.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

359. The Internationalization of Chinese and Indian Firms: Trends, Motivations and Policy Implications

Author:
Sandeep Kapur and Suma Athreye
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The last two decades have seen a significant rise in the internationalization of firms from developing economies. In addition to their growing participation in international trade, a number of leading emerging economies are contributing to growing outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. According to the 2008 World Investment Report, outward flows of FDI from developing countries rose from about US$6 billion between 1989 and 1991 to US$225 billion in 2007. As a percentage of total global outflows, the share of developing countries grew from 2.7% to nearly 13.0% during this period.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India