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251. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead in Advanced Manufacturing—Reflections on China’s Future of Jobshina's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper explores what we know about possible employment effects of the 10-year plan, issued by the State Council on May 19, 2015, entitled Made in China 2025. MIC2025 was designed to address China’s emerging labor shortage challenge. To achieve this goal, the plan seeks to boost labor productivity through an increased use of robots and through network-based upgrading of the entire industrial value chain and related services. How might the projected increase in labor productivity affect the creation and quality of jobs in China? Will China’s push into advanced manufacturing now move the country’s manufacturing employment closer to the pattern of “employment de-industrialization” observed in the US and other industrialized countries? How China will cope with the advanced manufacturing challenge for employment will have major implications not only for the US and other industrialized countries, but also for emerging economies and, most importantly for the majority of developing countries that are still struggling as latecomers to labor-intensive industrial manufacturing. The paper lays out objectives of the MIC 2025 plan and highlights a failure of Chinese policy makers to take into account employment effects and other labor market issues when they design their grand visions of industrial policy. The paper finds that until 2014, manufacturing has acted as an employment absorber in China. However new data on unemployment, labor force participation and income inequality signal that China may now be moving towards an “employment de-industrialization” pattern, unless enough knowledge-intensive service jobs will be created in China’s growing information economy. The paper concludes with implications for policy and further research.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
China

252. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:
Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyo Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:
China

253. Understanding the Recent trend of Income Inequality in China

Author:
Juzhong Zhuang and Shi Li
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines underlying factors that could explain the decline in income inequality in China since 2008 and inquires whether the decline indicates China‘s income inequality has peaked following the Kuznets hypothesis. The paper first identifies four key drivers of rising income inequality in China since the mid-1980: rising skill premium, declining share of labor income, increasing spatial inequality, and widening inequality in the distribution of wealth. It then provides evidence that the reversal of these drivers, with the exception of wealth inequality, could partly explains the decline in income inequality since 2008. The paper argues that since part of the reversal of these drivers is policy-induced, it is important that the policy actions continue for income inequality to decline further. The paper further argues that a critical factor underlying the Kuznets hypothesis is that taxation and transfers play a bigger role in income redistribution as a country becomes more developed, while their role is still limited in China, the future path of China‘s income inequality may not be one-directional, and may stay high before personal income tax plays a bigger role.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
China and Asia

254. Developing or Under-Developing? Implications of CHina's "Going Out" for Late Development

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Since the turn of the century, China’s influence on world development has increased enormously. This paper seeks to analyse major attributes of the influence of China’s “going out”, centring on the argument that the influence has been in the main conducive to the rest of the developing world. Specifically, this paper offers a critique of relevant, popular theses such as “China’s neoliberalization crowds out world development”, “China under-cuts the conditions of the world’s working class”, and “China exhibits a tendency towards imperialism”, etc. It is argued that, in the context of a neoliberal world economy that is increasingly speculation-oriented, China’s production-oriented activities can be seen as an important countervailing force. Whether this China influence is to continue to be conducive to world development in the future, or to turn to become detrimental, depends critically on the broader political-economic context.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Hegemony, Trade, and Influence
Political Geography:
China and Asia

255. The Changing Pattern of China's Economic Relations with Southeast Asia

Author:
Anne Booth
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the debates which have arisen in the ten countries of ASEAN about the impact of growing trade and investment ties with China, both before and after the full implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010. It examines the changes which have taken place in the country composition of trade and investment flows within the ASEAN countries, and between the ASEAN countries, China, and the rest of the world. The evidence indicates that while merchandise trade values have increased between China and ASEAN since 2010, the increase has not been as rapid as some predicted. But China is now running a substantial trade surplus with the ASEAN countries; the value of exports from China to ASEAN exceed the value of imports to China from the ASEAN countries. This surplus could lead to frictions in the future. Investment flows from China to ASEAN are still small in relation to flows into ASEAN from the rest of the world.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Hegemony, and Trade
Political Geography:
China and Asia

256. New Sanctions, Old Dilemmas

Author:
Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch in February drew global opposition in the form of UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2270 and condemnation by regional leaders. Pyongyang, however, promptly dismissed such calls with a series of short- and mid-range missile launches in March and April. Presidents Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye expressed support for full implementation of UN sanctions in bilateral talks at the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Washington. Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Yun Byung-se pledged their commitment to denuclearization at the fifth Foreign Ministers Meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Beijing on April 27-28, where Xi declared that China “will absolutely not permit war or chaos on the peninsula.” Despite Beijing’s hardened rhetoric, current tensions on the Korean Peninsula point to enduring differences between Beijing and Seoul’s strategic preferences.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

257. Friction and Cooperation Advance Simultaneously

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Senior US and Chinese officials publicly emphasized positive developments in the bilateral relationship at the eighth US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, while privately raising concerns. The second US-China Cybercrime and Related Issues High-Level Joint Dialogue convened a week later. The South China Sea persisted as a major area of tension as an UNCLOS Tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines in its case against China. National Security Adviser Susan Rice traveled to Beijing in late July to prepare for the US participation in the G20 Summit in Hangzhou and what is likely to be the last meeting between Xi Jinping and President Obama. Bilateral military ties maintained an active pace with a visit by the US chief of naval operations to China in July, a port visit by a US guided-missile destroyer to Qingdao in August, and Chinese participation in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercises in Hawaii.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

258. China's Political-Economic Institutions and Development

Author:
Chenggang Xu
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
After more than three decades of economic reform, China has transformed from being one of the poorest economies in the world to being the second-largest economy measured by nominal exchange rates, or the largest economy measured by purchasing power. As such, it is important to elucidate the determinants of China’s future development. This article will focus on China’s institutions. I argue that although the size of China’s economy is extremely important in terms of its impact on the global economy, it is misleading to ignore political and economic institutions. Indeed, forecasts based on extrapolating past trends could be erroneous (see Pritchett and Summers 2014). China was the largest economy in the world before the end of the 19th century but then lost ground to Western nations that established the rule of law and free trade. To understand China’s past and future development, one has to examine its institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

259. David Martin Jones, Nicholas Khoo and MLR Smith, Asian Security and the Rise of China: International Relations in an Age of Volatility

Author:
Dylan Kissane
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Central European University Political Science Journal
Institution:
Central European University
Abstract:
If there is one issue in contemporary international relations that continues to provoke interest in academic and policy making circles alike it is how states, regions and the world should react to a rising China. While the influence of the People's Republic is being felt from Africa and the Global South through to the developed economies of North America and Europe, it is in East Asia where a re-emerging China has most focused the minds of diplomats and strategists, leaders and scholars and, indeed, the military men and women who must navigate this increasingly precarious great power polity. Within this East Asian context this new volume by David Martin Jones, Nicholas Khoo and MLR Smith delivers thoughtful and attentive analysis to the problem of responding to China's rise. The book is neither a historical account of the rise of China, though it does offer sufficient historical contextualisation for the reader, or another collection of prescriptive policy suggestions, though there are clear conclusions made about which regional and state strategies have best dealt with the rise of the Sinic superpower. Instead, this book is a theoretically informed, consistently argued and well written account of how states in a broadly defined East Asia have and continue to react to the changing security environment that confronts them in the first decades of the twenty-first century.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, America, and Asia

260. Full Issue: Money & War

Author:
Sarah Detzner, James Copnall, Alex de Waal, Ian M. Ralby, Joshua Stanton, Ibrahim Warde, Leon Whyte, Richard Weitz, Jessica Knight, John H. Maurer, Alexander Tabarrok, Alex Nowrasteh, Tom Keatinge, Emily Knowles, Karolina MacLachlan, Andrew Lebovich, Caroline Troein, and Anne Moulakis
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The Fletcher Security Review: Managed and edited by students at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, we build on the Fletcher School’s strong traditions of combining scholarship with practice, fostering close interdisciplinary collaboration, and acting as a vehicle for groundbreaking discussion of international security. We believe that by leveraging these strengths – seeking input from established and up-and-coming scholars, practitioners, and analysts from around the world on topics deserving of greater attention – we can promote genuinely unique ways of looking at the future of security. Each issue of the Review is centered around a broad theme – in this issue, we tackle “Money & War.” Money influences every aspect of warfare, conventional or unconventional. No nationstate military, insurgent group, terrorist network, trans-national criminal organization, or hybrid actor can be understood, or countered, without knowing where the money is coming from – as well as where, and how, it gets spent. Evolutions and revolutions in financial tools and practices quickly translate to transformations in military affairs, and some cases, vice versa.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Governance, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Finance, Islamic State, Navy, Arab Spring, Maritime, Conflict, Multilateralism, Islamism, Drugs, and Currency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, China, Iran, Sudan, Darfur, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Mali, Asia-Pacific, Sahel, United States of America, and North America