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12. US-China Trade Tensions: Impact on Mexico | Estados Unidos-China Tensiones Comerciales: Impacto en Mexico
- Author:
- COMEXI
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
- Abstract:
- For the mid- or long-term, no country in the world—and much less Mexico—benefits from a strained environment in which there is no adherence to international trade rules. However, for the short-term, a strained trade environment produces adjustments to the supply chains, which could benefit competitors of those economies that are currently in conflict. Mexico, the second supplier of the United States only behind China, could reassert its position as a credible competitor of the Asian economy in the US. Likewise, in the context of trade friction, or even just the threat of a conflict, Mexico could strengthen its trade positioning in China by replacing part of the US offering. /// En el mediano o largo plazo, a ningún país del mundo, y menos a México, le conviene que exista un clima de tensiones donde no se respeten las reglas del comercio internacional. Ahora bien, en el corto plazo, el clima de tensiones comerciales genera ajustes en las cadenas de suministro, lo cual puede beneficiar a los competidores de las economías en conflicto. México, el segundo proveedor de Estados Unidos sólo después de China, puede reafirmar su posición como competidor creíble de la economía asiática en Estados Unidos, así como fortalecer su posición comercial en China, al sustituir parte de la oferta estadounidense, en un contexto de fricciones comerciales o su amenaza.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Economic growth, Trade Wars, Exports, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Mexico, and United States of America
13. The Reality of Updating China’s Nationally-determined Contributions:Effects of Long-term Economic Growth and Global Carbon Emissions Budget
- Author:
- Ang Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
- Abstract:
- In June 2015, prior to the COP21 talks in Paris, China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030. For many, China’s commitment was an aggressive move to combat climate change, demonstrating its leadership in the global climate engagement. Yet, more critical voices questioned whether China’s commitment adequately considered global average temperature increase target of 2 degrees Celsius within this century. As the upcoming COP24 talks in Katowice, Poland draw closer, participating countries delegations may focus on the main negotiation objective, an implementation plan of the Paris Agreement. However, in this conference there will be plenty of discussion on how big economies, like China, set Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets, not only according to their own economic and technological capacities but also based on the precondition of meeting the global carbon emission goal suggested by the Paris Agreement. The following piece will investigate economic factors behind China’s predicted carbon emissions (including GDP, urbanization, and energy consumption), as well as global predicated carbon emissions in 2030 and 2050 to discuss whether China can promise to peak much earlier and begin decreasing its total carbon emissions around 2025.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Economic growth, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
14. BALANCING AGAINST CHINA WITH THE ASIA-AFRICA GROWTH CORRIDOR: AN INDIAN-JAPANESE INITIATIVE TOWARDS THE INDO-PACIFIC
- Author:
- Carlos Eduardo Carvalho and João Paulo Nicolini Gabriel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- The launch of a vision document for Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) at the African Development Bank meeting in Gujarat in 2017 reveals an important aspect to grasp the awkening of a strategy to face China’s rise. This conference of the African Development Bank (AfDB) is a landmark for this initiative. This bank is a mechanism for economic and social development with the participation of non-African members (e.g. China, India, Brazil, the United States, and Japan). The main contributors to the African Development Fund -linked to this bank -are the United Kingdom, the USA and Japan. Beijing does not figure among the most influent members of this organization. Thus, it was an opportunity for think tanks, supported by India and Japan, to introduce the idea of a corridor aimed to link Asia to Africa in order to increase co-operation in agriculture, social development and technology sharing.
- Topic:
- Development, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Economic growth, Banks, Trade, Economic Development, Trade Policy, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Japan, China, and Asia
15. Risky Business: A Case Study of PRC Investment in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
- Author:
- Danny Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- China’s “New Silk Road” or “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) has reached Central Asia in resounding fashion. As a result, the republics of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have seen large increases in Chinese presence and investment. Although both countries have overlapping needs, the degree and character of PRC involvement in each has differed. PRC investment in Tajikistan is characterized by expensive loans on infrastructure investment and energy projects that the country may be unable to repay (Avesta.tj, December 25, 2017). Kyrgyzstan, while having hosted similar projects, is also attempting to move the country into the twenty-first century by improving its transportation and digital infrastructure (Tazakoom.kg). Development experts classify both countries as “high-risk” for debt distress given public debt projections (Cgdev.org). However, despite the risk of such an outcome, both countries appear inclined to welcome PRC investment with open arms, as a way of funding needed investment like power generation and logistical links with the outside world.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Economic growth, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan
16. Exploring the Awareness of China Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Stakeholder’s Perspective
- Author:
- Fouzia Hadi Ali and Aban Abid Qazi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to examine the prospects of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from a stakeholder’s perspective. The identification and communication of stakeholders can play a vital role in identifying the perceptions of all who are directly or indirectly involved in a project. Moreover, this study focuses on the general nature of stakeholders and their awareness about the mega project. An exploratory study was conducted through a structured survey instrument to tap the awareness and opinions of the stakeholders connected to the likely benefits of CPEC. The results revealed interesting findings relating to their opinions about CPEC. The study further suggests some important implications and future directions to introduce an inclusive approach to mitigate the misconceptions about CPEC.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economy, and Economic growth
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab
17. China's Middle East Policy: Implications for Pakistan
- Author:
- Asma Shakir Khawaja
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- In the contemporary history, the Middle East and China are the focus of global attention. Though Middle East has fought an ideological struggle with regard to religious extremism in the region, yet the quest for power energy sources cannot be overlooked. While Chinese policy frame , revolving around its approach of non-interference, economic development and a desire of having multi-polar global system is serious challenge for the US which on one hand, advocates democracy, human rights, but with the policy of intervention. Today, the world powers are competing each other for the supremacy of power resources where oil and gas are not an exception. China is the second largest consumer of world‘s oil after the United States (Bajpaee, 2006). China is making an effort to build an economic, political and military influence in the region without involving the military force. Though future will reveal many truths yet it is anticipated that a new triangular balance of power comprising of China, Saudi Arabia and Russia might emerge on the global scene, owing to their inter-connected dependencies. China is looking forward by pursuing the policy of wait and see for the appropriate moment This study primarily focuses on their bilateral relations and deals with China‘s Middle East policy, its increasing activities in the region and implications for Pakistan. For Pakistan, the nature of future relationship with Middle Eastern multi-dimensional crisis is very important because it is the ―Arc of crisis‖. The neutral role of Pakistan in this situation is much hazardous, carrying both challenges and opportunities along with the security repercussions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Power Politics, and Economic growth
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, Middle East, and Punjab
18. China should address downward pressure in 2018
- Author:
- Qiyuan Xu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic growth, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
19. China’s Overseas Military Base in Djibouti: Features, Motivations, and Policy Implications
- Author:
- John Fei
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti is near the U.S.’ sole military base in Africa—Camp Lemonnier—and signals China’s interest in protecting its growing economic and security interests in Africa and the Indian Ocean. While the base reflects China’s growing economic and security ambitions, it is unclear at present whether the facility represents just an effort for China to enhance its peacekeeping and humanitarian and disaster relief capabilities, or suggests greater ambitions. If, as some reports suggest, China does open more military bases in African and the Indian Ocean region, then the Djibouti base would mark the beginning of a sea-change in Chinese naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean region (Sina, December 19).
- Topic:
- Development, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Economic growth, Maritime, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, Djibouti, and United States of America
20. Impact of China Slowdown on India
- Author:
- Geetima Das Krishna and Ankit Bhardwaj
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic growth, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
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