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221. Japan-China Relations

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
After months of anticipation, Prime Minister Aso Taro dissolved the Diet on July 21 and scheduled elections for the Lower House. On Aug. 30, Aso's Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the Democratic Party of Japan and DPJ President Hatoyama Yukio became prime minister on Sept. 16. With Japan focused on the historic shift of power for most of the quarter, politics took primacy over diplomacy. In this environment, Japan-China relations continued to tread water, waiting for the arrival of a new government in Tokyo. Perhaps the good news is that there were no major dilemmas or disruptions and the new Japanese leadership had early opportunities to establish a relationship with their Chinese counterparts.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Environment
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

222. A Mechanism to Stabilize U.S.-China-Japan Trilateral Relations in Asia

Author:
Shulong Chu
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
China, Japan, and the United States are the most important powers in Asia now and for the future. The relationships among them are the foundation of international relations, peace, and stability in East Asia, but may also become the major source of strategic conflict in the region. What Asia is now and will become in future decades depends very much on the three countries and their relationships.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

223. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

Author:
Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John Park
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements. Three considerations underpin Beijing's aid policy toward North Korea: 1) protecting China's military-strategic environment; 2) maintaining security and stability along the Sino-DPRK border; and 3) sustaining economic development and political stability in the three Chinese northeastern provinces that border North Korea. There are intense debates among Chinese analysts over: 1) whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons; 2) the strategic value of the DPRK to China; 3) whether the Sino-DPRK treaty should be revised, abandoned, retained and its ambiguity stressed to enhance deterrence; and 4) the likelihood of a rapid improvement in U.S.-DPRK relations and how such a development would affect Chinese interests. Chinese analysts are generally less concerned with North Korea's immediate economic prospects than they were last year, reporting severe but stable conditions. Inflation has subsided and market mechanisms have largely replaced government rations as the primary means for securing a livelihood. In contrast to last year, when Chinese analysts were consumed by the seeming zero-sum choice between stability and reform facing the North Korean leadership, North Korea's slightly improved economic situation seems to have allayed the immediacy of Chinese concerns about North Korea's economic stability. Chinese experts report no fundamental change in North Korea's economic policies following the 2002 reforms. Chinese analysts provide conflicting assessments of whether government attempts to prohibit selling of grain in markets are succeeding and the extent to which the grain rationing system is working. Chinese DPRK specialists are encouraged that the DPRK has haltingly adopted some agricultural and market reforms and allowed greater autonomy to individual factories and enterprises. But they acknowledge that North Korea has not yet allowed farmers to act independently of their work teams, a step China took as early as the late 1970s that raised productivity sharply. Chinese analysts anticipate that reforms will continue as long as they do not threaten central government control. Chinese analysts widely assert that the North Korean system remains stable and they are confident that it will remain so for at least several years absent the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or external interference aimed at destabilizing the regime. In the long run, however, sustainable development through economic reform remains an essential prerequisite for stability, and North Korea's ability to move down that path is not yet assured. There are numerous indicators that the Chinese examine to assess stability trends in North Korea. These indicators are grouped in the following manner: 1) factionalism in the regime and potential challenges to Kim Jong Il's leadership; 2) political controls and ideological education; 3) influences from the outside; 4) the general public's loyalty to the Kim family; 5) crimes and illicit activities; 6) the economy, food supply, and economic reform; and 7) Kim Jong Il's health and the leadership succession. Chinese analysts see few signs of immediate instability in any of these areas at present, but they worry that the potential for instability may grow. In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea. China's strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the United Nations (UN) in such an endeavor. However, if the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability. Contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform at least three possible missions in the DPRK: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or “order keeping” missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) “environmental control” missions to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and secure “loose nukes” and fissile material. There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

224. China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security

Author:
Bruce W. MacDonald
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On January 11, 2007, China launched a missile into space, releasing a homing vehicle that destroyed an old Chinese weather satellite. The strategic reverberations of that collision have shaken up security thinking in the United States and around the world. This test demonstrated that, if it so chose, China could build a substantial number of these anti- satellite weapons (ASAT) and thus might soon be able to destroy substantial numbers of U.S. satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), upon which the U.S. military heavily depends. On February 21, 2008, the United States launched a modified missile-defense interceptor, destroying a U.S. satellite carrying one thousand pounds of toxic fuel about to make an uncontrolled atmospheric reentry. Thus, within fourteen months, China and the United States both demonstrated the capability to destroy LEO satellites, heralding the arrival of an era where space is a potentially far more contested domain than in the past, with few rules.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

225. Asia — Shaping the Future

Author:
Douglas H. Paal
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington has no proactive vision toward a “rising Asia”; “more of the same” will not advance U.S. interests. Decide early on clear U.S. strategic objectives in the region, and signal to China where constructive cooperation will lead. Appoint a high-level advocate for Asia befitting its status as the new global “center of gravity.” Prioritize the bewildering alphabet of organizations and venues to achieve those objectives. Consider inviting China and India to join the G8. Anticipate greater Chinese and Indian military and trade capabilities by developing new multilateral security and economic arrangements in the region. Avoid coalitions based on common values or democracy. Asia is too diverse and complicated for them to succeed. Ditch the “war on terror” rhetoric, which has proved divisive and counterproductive.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Washington, India, and Asia

226. Taiwan's Time

Author:
Claude Barfield
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
While the waning months of an administration is normally not a time for new foreign policy initiatives, President Bush should break precedent and begin formal negotiations with Taiwan for an FTA. Such a move would send a powerful signal to our allies in East Asia that America—despite great sympathy for the humanitarian efforts of the authoritarian Chinese government after the earthquake and thus far foregoing intervention against the military thugs in Burma—still stands by its determination to foster and support democratic regimes in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Burma

227. The Cultural Impact on China's New Diplomacy

Author:
Wilfried Bolewski and Candy M. Rietig
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
China is in a state of universal change—economically, culturally, politically and diplomatically—and the international community is taking note of the Chinese posture as an ascending global power. As a nation, China has economically liberalized and opened up to the world while retaining a government that by some definitions would be considered authoritarian. Previously an aloof international actor, increased participation in international organizations like the United Nations and dramatic increases in contributions to peacekeeping missions are just two examples of the larger soft power network Beijing is establishing. These activities in public diplomacy are aimed at raising international popularity and acceptance of an ascending China through cooperative behavior and international engagement. As Jamie Roth puts it, “China's new public diplomacy seems to have taken careful note of how to strengthen the country's image abroad through cultural relations.”Because the Chinese want to be able to deal with the challenges of a globalized world, they have adopted a strategy of learning from other participants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
China and Beijing

228. Honor in International Relations

Author:
Shashank Joshi
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The concept of honor has an extensive and distinguished lineage in the study of international relations, although contemporary theory has lost sight of its importance. This study begins to remedy that situation. It does so by first setting out the place of honor in relation to a number of other related concepts, like prestige and status. It then outlines a theory of "negative honor," and situates this in relation to existing theoretical and empirical accounts of honor-related variables. This theory draws on extant work in social psychology, anthropology, economics, political science, and other fields, to set out hypotheses on why, how, and when political leaders of states might respond to certain kinds of challenges in a way that constitutes honor-seeking behavior. The second part of the paper tentatively sets out one way to empirically evaluate these hypotheses. While unsuccessful, this provides a blueprint for further research and a number of soon-to-be-implemented refinements.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
China

229. Case studies in Chinese diplomacy

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
This paper aims to examine China's changing diplomacy. To do this it considers how China is approaching its diplomacy in a number of specific contexts. The examples chosen to illustrate its more nuanced diplomacy are the US—China relationship; China's relations with Latin America; the Six-Party-Talks over North Korea's nuclear ambitions; China's concerns about energy security and its relations with 'unsavoury' regimes; and China's relations with its neighbours.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Latin America

230. North Korea: Negotiations Work

Author:
Leon V. Sigal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In a laudable about-face, President Bush has decided at last to accept North Korea's longstanding offer to suspend production of plutonium by shutting down and sealing its reactor and reprocess- ing plant at Yongbyon, halting construction of a larger reactor and not restarting a newly refurbished fuel fabrication plant. In so doing, he is rejecting the counsel of American hardliners who have kept the United States from making and living up to earlier agreements while managing to convince much of America that it is North Korea that has been the one at fault. By negotiating in earnest, Bush has achieved an important goal for U.S. and Asian security.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea