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381. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China

Author:
Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
China and Israel

382. A Policy Mismatch: Canada and the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The United States and Canada have simultaneously re- invigorated their diplomatic and military postures toward the Asia-Pacific region. As two of the world's closest allies, it is worth exploring the possible synergies and tensions between their efforts to identify areas of possible policy coordination. Canada has considerable assets that could support US diplomacy in the region, including the legacy of its good offices and its close ties with the US military; however, these assets are outweighed by three liabilities. First, Canada's diplomacy to the Asia-Pacific is driven by its desire to diversify away from the US market. Although relatively innocuous in isolation, the politics of this shift, driven by growing concern in Canada about whether the United States remains a reliable market for energy exports, adds a layer of complexity. Second, Canada's closer economic ties with China could undermine its willingness to support the United States on tough regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Third, and related, Canadian silence about navigational freedoms, the primary security issue between the United States and China in East Asia, has not gone unnoticed. This paper argues that, on balance, Canada may not be an ideal Pacific partner for the United States.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, East Asia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

383. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea

384. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios

Author:
Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

385. China's New Courtship in South Sudan

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and South Sudan

386. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:
Michael Beckley
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

387. China's rise and middle power democracies: Canada and Australia compared

Author:
Andrew O'Neil and James Manicom
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Assessments of how international actors are responding to China's rise typically focus on rival great powers or on China's Asian neighbors. In these cases, relative power, geographic proximity, and regional institutions have conditioned relationships with China. The relationship of China with the developing world has mainly been defined by power asymmetry and the appeal of the Chinese governance model to authoritarian regimes. Largely absent from this discussion is an understanding of how Western middle power democracies are responding to China's rise. This article compares how Canada and Australia – two Western democratic states with prominent middle power foreign policy traditions – are responding to the rise of China. The two case studies are similar in many respects: both are resource-based economies with a track record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the Asia-Pacific, and both are key US allies. These similarities allow differences in the Canadian and Australian responses to China's rise to be isolated in the political, economic, and strategic realms.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Canada, and Australia

388. China and Brazil: Economic Impacts of a Growing Relationship

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyses the economic impacts of China's re-emergence on Brazil, looking at both the direct effects of China on Brazil in terms of bilateral trade and investment flows and the indirect effects through increased competition in export markets for manufactured goods and higher world prices for primary commodities. Despite a surge in Chinese FDI in Brazil in 2010, the main driver of bilateral relations is trade. While bilateral trade has grown rapidly, the pattern that has emerged has given rise to concern because Brazil's exports are concentrated in a small number of primary products while imports from China are almost entirely of manufactured goods that are becoming more technologically sophisticated over time. Brazil has benefitted in the short term from the high prices of primary commodities (partly caused by growing Chinese demand), but has lost export markets to China in manufactures, contributing to the "primarization" of the country's export basket.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Brazil

389. China-North Korea: Renewal of the "Blood Alliance"

Author:
Masako Ikegami
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As North Korea's latest rocket-missile launch approaches, there is speculation whether Beijing can halt Pyongyang's missile ambitions. In my view, Beijing will turn a blind eye towards North Korea's latest provocation, while simultaneously calling for restraint by all parties. Recently, the China-North Korea “blood alliance,” a concept of allies that originated during the Korean War, has been renewed, and it is in China's interests that North Korea consolidates its “absolute deterrence” capability to deter US forces in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and North Korea

390. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia