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42. Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization: A Comparative Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Steven Colley
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- China’s emergence as a global economic superpower and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for the U.S. to “rebalance” its forces to Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that China is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific, and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers. As a result, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and China’s neighbors face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each state in the region is developing its military power, and find ways to avoid the kind of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and East Asia
43. Why China Won't Abandon Its Nuclear Strategy of Assured Retaliation
- Author:
- Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Whether China will abandon its long-standing nuclear strategy of assured retaliation for a first-use posture will be a critical factor in U.S.-China strategic stability. In recent years, the United States has been developing strategic capabilities such as missile defenses and conventional long-range strike capabilities that could reduce the effectiveness of China's deterrent. Writings by Chinese strategists and analysts, however, indicate that China is unlikely to abandon its current nuclear strategy.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
44. Nuclear-Armed Submarines in Indo-Pacific Asia: Stabiliser or Menace?
- Author:
- Brendan Thomas- Noone and Rory Medcalf
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- India and China, rising powers in the Indo-Pacific, are moving from the test and design phase of sea-based nuclear weapon platforms to active deployment. In the long-term, these new ballistic missile-carrying nuclear submarines could lead to greater strategic stability in the region. But only once systems that ensure their safe and credible operation are put in place. The deployment of these weapons will also exacerbate existing regional tensions over the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and drive the deployment of ballistic missile defence systems and enhanced anti-submarine warfare capabilities in the region.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Power Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China and India
45. The Perception Gap: Reading China's Maritime Objectives in Indo-Pacific Asia
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson and Rory Medcalf
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Regional security is being adversely affected by a worsening perception gap between China and other regional powers in the Indo-Pacific. What China sees as the legitimate defence of its interests others in the region see as assertive behaviour. There are some real differences in interests between China and other regional players in the Indo-Pacific, but tensions can also be moderated by efforts to address the perception gap.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- China and Australia/Pacific
46. Japan's New Security Policy: Breaking Away from the Post–War Regime?
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- China is challenging the regional balance of power in East Asia through a military buildup and an increasingly assertive foreign policy. The US is forced to find the right balance between cooperating with China while benefiting from its economic rise, and countering China's regional reach by carrying out its self-declared "pivot" to Asia in spite of domestic and budgetary constraints. With just over one year in office, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has received wide domestic support for his ambitious plans to revive Japan's economy through his threefold policy of Abenomics. At the same time, however, he has implemented a number of significant policies in the defence and security sphere. In response to China's military rise, the Abe administration increased and recalibrated the defence budget. Furthermore, in order to reinforce the alliance with the US, the government approved the creation of a US-style National Security Council, passed a Secrecy Bill, and aims to reverse Japan's self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defence. Under the banner of "proactive pacifism", the Abe cabinet is seizing the momentum caused by the changing regional power dynamics in order to edge closer towards "breaking away from the postwar regime". A proposed revision of Japan's constitution, unchanged since 1947, symbolizes the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) objective to bring about a more autonomous role for Japan both in the security alliance with the US and as an international actor.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
47. America's Asia Pivot - A Return to Realism?
- Author:
- Sean Kay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This working paper demonstrates that the announced "pivot" to Asia by the United States represents a major break with twenty years of liberal and neoconservative priorities in American foreign policy. The pivot to Asia reflects a return to realist thinking in terms of America's international goals. The paper also shows that this shift is difficult to achieve due to existing priorities in other regions and domestic policy dynamics. The paper begins with a brief explanation of the traditions of idealism and realism in American foreign policy. The analysis then explains the various dynamics necessary to implement the "pivot" to Asia and shows the major constraints on implementing this new approach. The conclusion shows that emerging priorities suggest both a need and capacity for a realist alignment of American foreign policy. However, institutionalized constraints risk undermining America's ability to adjust to a new set of twenty-first century global economic and security interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
48. Securing China's Nuclear Future
- Author:
- Hui Zhang and Tuosheng Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the threat of nuclear terrorism has become one of the most significant challenges to international security. China has worked to meet this challenge, but a continuing effort is needed. The 2010 and 2012 Nuclear Security Summits raised the issues of nuclear security to a higher political level and enhanced international consensus on the danger of nuclear terrorism. China actively participated in the first two summits, and President Xi Jinping will participate in the Nuclear Security Summit in the Netherlands in March 2014. China's commitment to nuclear security is now well established. Former president Hu Jintao emphasized in 2012 that, "the threat of nuclear terrorism cannot be overlooked." Meeting that threat, as President Hu recognized, "is a long and arduous task."
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
49. A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension
- Author:
- Geoffrey Till
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The relative rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world's strategic architecture, which the United States will need to accommodate. For the outcome to be generally beneficial, China needs to be dissuaded from hegemonic aspirations and retained as a cooperative partner in the world system. This will require a range of potentially conflicting thrusts in U.S. policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
50. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Middle East