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592. The Rise of Petroyuan
- Author:
- Dan Steinbock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the late 20th century, U.S. petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. This ascent could speed up the erosion of the dollar’s dominance after a century of power. The U.S. dollar still accounts for 39% of international payments – more than the euro (33%), English pound (7%), Japanese yen (3%) and Chinese yuan (28%) – but times are changing.
- Topic:
- Oil, History, Natural Resources, Economy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
593. IFPA National Security Update 6: The Trump Administration's Space Force
- Author:
- Jack Kelly
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- This IFPA National This IFPA National Security Update examines the Trump Administration’s proposal to create a new U.S. Space Force, its rationale, alternative approaches, and Congressional perspectives. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Military Affairs, Trump, Space, and Space Force
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
594. National Security Update 4: The Implications of China’s Actions in the South China Sea and U.S. Options
- Author:
- Jack Kelly
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- This IFPA National Security Update addresses the potential consequences of China’s strategy to control the South China Sea and possible U.S. and allied responses. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, South China, and United States of America
595. The Trump-led Trade War with China: Energy Dominance Self-destructed?
- Author:
- Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe and Jean-François Boittin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Under particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat”, President Donald Trump has started imposing tariffs and/or quotas and has launched national security investigations on a growing number of imported goods from US allies and others alike.In March and June 2018, the US imposed tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminium on all trading partners, but Australia. In July and August 2018, the US began imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese industrial goods on the ground of unfair trade practices. As China has retaliated with tit-for-tat measures, President Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 24 September 2018 onwards, and in an unprecedented escalation of his trade war with China, he has also threatened to impose tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods. If eventually carried out, Trump’s latest threat could result in tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US. China has retaliated and imposed tariffs on $60 billion in US goods, including a 10% duty on liquefied natural gas (LNG). For the time being, trade tensions have had a limited impact on the energy market. But the new round of US tariffs and retaliation measures by China suggest that this is going to change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Coal
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
596. Xi Jinping’s Institutional Reforms: Environment over Energy?
- Author:
- Thibaud Voïta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- During its two sessions (lianghui) in March 2018, the National People’s Congress (NPC) announced China’s most important institutional reforms in the last 30 years. These changes occurred right after Xi Jinping consolidated his power and at a time when stakeholders working in the energy field were expecting more clarity on policy orientations. Though the reforms are in line with those initiated since the 2000s, the energy sector is likely to be deeply affected by the new institutional setting, which reflects China’s energy policy path with a strong emphasis towards low-carbon technologies and a rise in importance of environmental issues, alongside Xi’s institutional modernization through greater centralization and control. Nevertheless, it is too early though to judge whether this will effectively impact the balance of power with the fossil fuel related institutions and policies. The day Environment became more important than energy The environment sector is at the core of the reforms, which probably reflects the will to put environmental protection ahead of energy issues. The latest reforms established a Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) which gathers climate and environment responsibilities, that used to be spread between a number of bodies. Unveiled in April, the MEE is now in charge of managing most environmental issues, and theoretically able to draft and empower regulations. In addition, it now represents China in international climate negotiations. In order to manage these new duties, MEE staff increased from 300 to 500.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, and Xi Jinping
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
597. Between Giants: The Sino-Indian Cold War in the Indian Ocean
- Author:
- David Brewster
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean is growing and has the potential to profoundly impact the stability and security of the region. The Indian Ocean is becoming the scene of a sustained contest that in some ways resembles strategic competition during the Cold War. This will include pressure on Indian Ocean states to align themselves with one side or another within an increasingly unstable and complex strategic environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Political stability, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean
598. Will North Korea Denuclearize after the Singapore Summit? Lessons from the past
- Author:
- Naoko Aoki
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Policy-makers, scholars, and analysts disagree about whether North Korea will take any meaningful denuclearization steps after its leader Kim Jong Un met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore in June 2018. Many believe that the breakdowns of the 1994 Agreed Framework and the Six Party Talks process in the 2000s show that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program cannot be constrained through cooperation. According to this view, Pyongyang violated its previous commitments once it received economic and political benefits, and it will do so again. The underlying assumption is that Washington was fully implementing its own commitments until Pyongyang broke the deal. But is this true? This paper discusses three key findings drawn from an analysis of U.S. implementation of past denuclearization agreements with North Korea. The first is that the United Stated did not always follow through with its cooperative commitments because of domestic political constraints, even when North Korea was fulfilling its commitments. This makes it difficult to determine whether North Korea ultimately did not honor its obligations because it never intended to or because it was responding to U.S. actions. The second is that some parts of past deals were more susceptible than others to being undercut by domestic opposition because they received insufficient political attention. The third is that such domestic interference could be minimized by obtaining the widest possible coalition of domestic support from the negotiation stage. The roadmap for North Korea’s denuclearization is unclear, as the Singapore summit did not determine concrete steps toward that goal. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang in early July also did not yield specifics such as the scope and timeline of denuclearization. But based on the findings from past agreements, this paper argues that the only way for the United States to find out if engagement will work this time is to test North Korea’s intentions by carrying out Washington’s own cooperative commitments more consistently than in the past.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nonproliferation, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
599. Rethinking Soft Power in Light of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
- Author:
- Mustafa Yağci
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates how China appeals to other countries by utilizing soft power in ensuring their participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to revive ancient Silk Road through infrastructure, trade, finance and other linkages. By employing a behavioral and contextualized explanation for soft power, this investigation reveals that Chinese state actively pursues a soft power-oriented economic diplomacy for BRI and relies on hard power resources for its effectiveness. Furthermore, China takes advantage of the power vacuum in the global economy and embraces a liberal economic vision for the international system in its diplomatic activities emphasizing the importance of globalization, free trade, infrastructure investment, and win-win cooperation in achieving high levels of economic development. While China frames BRI mainly in terms of economic development purposes, China’s soft power appeal to other countries is likely to have important political and security implications for the international system.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Soft Power, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
600. Worlding the Study of Normative Power: Assessing European and Chinese Definitions of the “Normal”
- Author:
- Emilian Kavalski and Young Chul Cho
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This study contributes to the nascent worlding of the study of normative power by undertaking a parallel assessment of Normative Power Europe (NPE) and Normative Power China (NPC). There seems to have been a qualitative change in the EU’s and China’s international standing. While in the immediate post-Cold War period the EU was asserting its ability to set the range of legitimate international behavior and China appeared to be a reactive adopter of such norms, in recent years China is positioned as a normative entrepreneur and the EU’s ability has been challenged both in Europe and internationally. This study claims that such change in fortunes is not merely a result of recent developments, but pivots on the distinct repertoires of NPE and NPC – acquis communautaire for the EU and guanxi for China. The acquis communautaire suggests a “rule- based” framework for setting what passes for “normal” in global life, while guanxi offers a “relational” one. Such distinct points of departure have led to the evolution of distinct concepts and practices of normative power. The comparative study of NPE and NPC concludes by drawing attention to the nascent struggle for recognition of normative powers in global life.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, Power Politics, and Norms
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia