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5121. A New World Map in Textiles and Clothing

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The textile and clothing industries provide employment for tens of million of people, primarily in developing countries, and accounted for USD 350 billion in merchandise exports in 2002, or 5.6% of the world total. The current rules governing world trade in textiles and clothing will change drastically at the end of 2004, when countries will no longer be able to protect their own industries by means of quantitative restrictions on imports of textile and clothing products. What will this mean for cotton growers in Burkina Faso and Turkey, fashion retailers in France and the United States, or shirt factories in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic or China?
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, United States, China, Turkey, and France

5122. North Korea's Nuclear Ambition: Causes and Consequences

Author:
Mustafa Kibaroglu
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North Korean leadership embarked upon nuclear weapons development program from the inception of their state. Due to the tangible and comprehensive support provided by the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China in the field of nuclear science and technology, North Korea has seemingly passed a significant threshold on the way to become a de facto nuclear weapons state. As of 2004, it is widely believed that North Korea has already extracted enough plutonium for a couple of nuclear warheads. Combined with its 1,350 kilometer-range ballistic missile capability, North Korea stands as one of the most significant threats to regional and global security and stability. In the aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States, Russia and China have greatly reduced their support to North Korea and intensified their efforts to mend the differences between that country and the US, just like Japan and South Korea did for long, with a view to not to pave the way to the escalation of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Soviet Union, and Korean Peninsula

5123. Future of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China

Author:
Selçuk Çolakoglu
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Sino-Russian bilateral relations have steadily developed during the 1990s. With the help of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which was established in 1996, China and Russia had the chance to balance the hegemony of the US in the world and to prevent the interfering of other great powers to central Eurasian issues. Central Asian countries, which have been historically and strategically squeezed between Russia and China, have also taken part in the SCO. With the US military operation of Afghanistan after September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001, the new era has started in Central Asia and the SCO has been affected negatively within this process. The attitude of Russia and China is very important for the future of the SCO as an organization. The SCO will be able to protect its entity and continue to develop, as long as the cooperation between China and Russia carries on depending on mutual interests.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Central Asia, and Asia

5124. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries

5125. Globalization and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from within China

Author:
Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
China's recent accession to the WTO is expected to accelerate its integration into the world economy, which aggravates concerns over the impact of globalization on the already rising inter-region income inequality in China. This paper discusses China's globalization process and estimates an income generating function, incorporating trade and FDI variables. It then applies the newly developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of globalization, along with other variables, to regional inequality. It is found that (a) globalization constitutes a positive and substantial share to regional inequality and the share rises over time; (b) capital is one of the largest and increasingly important contributor to regional inequality; (c) economic reform characterized by privatization exerts a significant impact on regional inequality; and (d) the relative contributions of education, location, urbanization and dependency ratio to regional inequality have been declining.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5126. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5127. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5128. China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–90, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–96 and the post-1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China

5129. Divergent Means and Convergent Inequality of Incomes among the Provinces and Cities of Urban China

Author:
John Knight, Li Shi, and Zhao Renwei
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Two precisely comparable national household surveys relating to 1988 and 1995 are used to analyse changes in the inequality of income in urban China. Over those seven years province mean income per capita grew rapidly but diverged across provinces, whereas intra-province income inequality grew rapidly but converged across provinces. The reasons for these trends are explored by means of various forms of decomposition analysis. Comparisons are also made between the coastal provinces and the inland provinces. The decompositions show the central role of wages, and within wages profitrelated bonuses, together with the immobility of labour across provinces, in explaining mean income divergence. The timing of economic reforms helps to explain the convergence of intra-province income inequality. Policy conclusions are drawn.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5130. Income Inequality in Rural China: Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Zhangyue Zhou
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A considerable literature exists on the measurement of income inequality in China and its increasing trend. Much less is known, however, about the driving forces of this trend and their quantitative contributions. Conventional decompositions, by factor components or by population subgroups, only provide limited information on the determinants of income inequality. This paper represents an early attempt to apply the regression-based decomposition framework to the study of inequality accounting in rural China, using household level data. It is found that geography has been the dominant factor but is becoming less important in explaining total inequality. Capital input emerges as a most significant determinant of income inequality. Farming structure is more important than labour and other inputs in contributing to income inequality across households.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia