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3021. Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO). Assuming China concludes its bilateral negotiations with the European Union by June or July, entry is likely before the end of the year. The cornerstone principle of the World Trade Organization is that members provide each other unconditional Most Favored Nation trade status, now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) in U.S. trade law. Current U.S. law precludes granting PNTR to China; as a result President Clinton has asked Congress to amend the law. A negative vote would have no bearing on China's entry into the World Trade Organization, but it would mean that U.S. companies would not benefit from the most important commitments China has made to become a member. Gaining the full range of benefits is particularly important in light of the large and growing deficit the United States faces in its trade with China (Figure 1). A positive vote would give U.S. companies the same advantages that would accrue to companies from Europe, Japan, and all other WTO member states when China enters the World Trade Organization. It would also provide an important boost to China's leadership, that is taking significant economic and political risks in order to meet the demands of the international community for substantial additional economic reforms as a condition for its WTO membership. A positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. That may help place a floor on the broader bilateral relationship, which continues to face critical challenges on security issues, stemming largely from tensions between China and Taiwan, and on human rights issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

3022. A Foreign Policy Report Card on the Clinton-Gore Administration

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The foreign policy record of the Clinton-Gore administration deserves a less than stellar grade. At the end of the Cold War, there was an extraordinary opportunity to build a new relationship with a democratic Russia; restructure U.S. security policy in both Europe and East Asia to reduce America's burdens and risk exposure; and revisit intractable Cold War–era problems, such as the frosty relations with Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea. The administration's performance must be judged within the context of such an unprecedented opportunity for constructive change.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, and Vietnam

3023. China's Long March to a Market Economy

Author:
Mark A. Groombridge
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S. Congress is in the historic position of being able to help pro-reform leaders in China move their country in a market-oriented direction. A vote to grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status will bolster the position of those leaders in Beijing who are attempting to deepen and broaden the scope of China's two-decade experiment with economic reform. Granting PNTR and China's subsequent accession to the World Trade Organization will benefit, not only the United States and the world trading community, but most directly the citizens of China, millions of whom are still mired in abject poverty.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, and Asia

3024. Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: "One Country, Two Systems" in the Emerging Metropolitan Context

Author:
Thomas P. Rohlen
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Now, more than at any point since 1949, Hong Kong's economic future is tied to that of China. This commonplace observation must be coupled with the less obvious, but equally fundamental point that Hong Kong's future with China is based largely on activities that arise in or pass through the Pearl River Delta. This region, however, is cut in half by a sovereign border and governed by a patchwork of political authorities. The Delta as a whole is rich with opportunities, but it is increasingly apparent that these can be realized only if integration moves forward, both in a metropolitan and regional sense. This prospect is currently marked by serious uncertainties.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Hong Kong

3025. The United States and the Republic of China, 1949-1978: Suspicious Allies

Author:
Steven M. Goldstein
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper discusses the relationship between the United States and the Republic of China (ROC) from 1949 to 1979. This was an association that began and ended with an American determination to distance itself from the government on Taiwan, in the interests of improved relations with the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. In the intervening years, the United States and the ROC were aligned in a relationship—formalized by a mutual defense treaty from 1955 to 1979—which weathered two (almost three) military confrontations with the PRC.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

3026. Sustainable Development and the Open-Door Policy in China

Author:
James K. Galbraith and Jaiging Lu
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
How can one best explain China's remarkable economic growth during twenty-one years and its rise from autarky to world economic power? The exercise requires chutzpah; it demands simplification; it cries out for the trained capacity to present a unifying theme with a weighty set of policy implications.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3027. China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Historically, U.S. nuclear strategists and arms control experts have paid little attention to the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has not been a major factor in the U.S. nuclear calculus, which has remained centered on U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals as the principal framework for arms control and arms reductions. Yet today China is the only one of the five de jure nuclear weapons states qualitatively and quantitatively expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

3028. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:
Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

3029. Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In a recent conference, trade experts identified three primary reasons the World Trade Organization (WTO) failed to launch a new trade Round at its December 1999 Ministerial. First, leading members were unable to resolve differences on critical issues prior to the gathering. In addition, many developing countries and nongovernmental organizations were more assertive than they had been at previous conferences. Finally, in recent years, the WTO has expanded the range of issues it addresses, which has made efforts to reach a consensus on any point more difficult. According to the speakers, as a result of the acrimonious Ministerial, the WTO has suffered a substantial loss of credibility, which will impair efforts to launch a new Round in the near term. There is no immediate alternative to strong US leadership, and WTO negotiations will be more complicated because developing countries and nongovernmental organizations will be more inclined to resist trade liberalization efforts that they believe do not advance their interests. Experts at the conference offered a variety of assessments regarding the course the WTO might choose to follow this year. The majority argued that if the trade body is seeking to rebuild confidence, it could continue with scheduled meetings on agriculture and services and use the time to rebuild confidence. A minority, however, held that the forum is too fractured to make progress, thus talks would only undermine the already declining prestige of the trade body. The experts identified several long-run challenges that the WTO will probably need to address to be an effective decisionmaking institution, including: Bridging the developed-developing country gap Costa Rica, Mexico, and South Africa generally support trade liberalization and have credibility among developed and developing states; thus they are in a position to meld the interests of the two sides. Enacting institutional reforms The organization's expansive agenda and large membership require that it adopt policies that facilitate decisionmaking, especially before new members such as China and Russia join. The trade body may try to increase transparency to promote greater trust in its procedures. Also, to avoid protracted and bitter selections such as the forum suffered last year, the WTO could review its procedures for electing a new director general. Managing the backlash against globalization Supporters of freer trade could launch a massive educational program to highlight the gains for all countries from expanded trade and to counter the dire assertions made by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia and China

3030. Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is embarked on an ambitious, long-term military modernization effort to develop capabilities to fight and win short-duration, high- intensity conflicts along its periphery. China's defense modernization is broad reaching, encompassing the transformation of virtually all aspects of the military establishment, to include weapon systems, operational doctrine, institution building, and personnel reforms. China values military power to defend economic interests, secure territorial claims, and build political influence commensurate with its status as a regional power with global aspirations. In recent years, the PLA has accelerated reform and modernization in response to the central leadership's concerns that developments across the Taiwan Strait could put at risk Beijing's objectives for Taiwan unification.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Beijing