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2872. Considering China as a Potential Member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group
- Author:
- Andrew Prosser
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- In January 2004, China formally requested to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an informal multilateral export control regime that aims to contribute to the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons through the coordination and implementation of guidelines which govern transfers of nuclear material and technology. The NSG's membership comprises the principal nuclear supplier states in Europe and the Americas, as well as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, and a number of former Eastern Bloc states, including Russia. The group's decisions, including those concerning the admission of new members, are made on a consensus basis, but the informal nature of the organization means that its decisions cannot be construed as legally binding upon its member countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand
2873. The World's Nuclear Arsenals
- Author:
- Ali Chaudhry and Andrew George
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Though the exact size of China's nuclear arsenal is unknown, current best estimates are that China has about 280 strategic weapons, and a smaller number — about 120 — of tactical weapons. The weapons are based on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic bombers, with a naval component under research.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China
2874. America Demands; China Supplies
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Say's Law, named after French economist Jean- Baptiste Say (1767–1832), was promulgated at the time of the Industrial Revolution when some feared that purchasing power would be insufficient to absorb the ever-growing output of the newly mechanized economy. It states simply and reassuringly that supply creates its own demand. More specifically, the production of output tends to generate purchasing power equal to the value of that output.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
2875. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries
2876. Globalization and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from within China
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- China's recent accession to the WTO is expected to accelerate its integration into the world economy, which aggravates concerns over the impact of globalization on the already rising inter-region income inequality in China. This paper discusses China's globalization process and estimates an income generating function, incorporating trade and FDI variables. It then applies the newly developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of globalization, along with other variables, to regional inequality. It is found that (a) globalization constitutes a positive and substantial share to regional inequality and the share rises over time; (b) capital is one of the largest and increasingly important contributor to regional inequality; (c) economic reform characterized by privatization exerts a significant impact on regional inequality; and (d) the relative contributions of education, location, urbanization and dependency ratio to regional inequality have been declining.
- Topic:
- Economics and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2877. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2878. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2879. China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–90, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–96 and the post-1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
2880. Divergent Means and Convergent Inequality of Incomes among the Provinces and Cities of Urban China
- Author:
- John Knight, Li Shi, and Zhao Renwei
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Two precisely comparable national household surveys relating to 1988 and 1995 are used to analyse changes in the inequality of income in urban China. Over those seven years province mean income per capita grew rapidly but diverged across provinces, whereas intra-province income inequality grew rapidly but converged across provinces. The reasons for these trends are explored by means of various forms of decomposition analysis. Comparisons are also made between the coastal provinces and the inland provinces. The decompositions show the central role of wages, and within wages profitrelated bonuses, together with the immobility of labour across provinces, in explaining mean income divergence. The timing of economic reforms helps to explain the convergence of intra-province income inequality. Policy conclusions are drawn.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia