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2431. Economic Integration and Incipient Democracy

Author:
Philip I. Levy
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Contrary to the common approach in the literature, the economic and other forces that push countries toward democratization are continuous rather than discrete. This paper argues that failure to account for the latent variable of "incipient democracy" can bias estimates of democracy's determinants. The paper presents a new avenue by which economic integration can foster democracy, one that focuses on the means for democratization rather than the motive. This strengthening of civil society is identified as a necessary component of economic integration with modern distributed production, though we would not expect to see it in autocracies dependent on natural resource trade. The arguments are applied to the case of China.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2432. Taiwan's Time

Author:
Claude Barfield
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
While the waning months of an administration is normally not a time for new foreign policy initiatives, President Bush should break precedent and begin formal negotiations with Taiwan for an FTA. Such a move would send a powerful signal to our allies in East Asia that America—despite great sympathy for the humanitarian efforts of the authoritarian Chinese government after the earthquake and thus far foregoing intervention against the military thugs in Burma—still stands by its determination to foster and support democratic regimes in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Burma

2433. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

2434. The Ties that Bind Bush and Bashir

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
This February, the Sudanese government launched a series of direct assaults on towns and villages in West Darfur that harkened back to the worst periods of violence since the current conflict in Sudan's western region began in 2003. Military aircraft, including Antonov transport planes used as bombers and helicopter gunships accompanied Sudanese Armed Forces and government-supported proxy militia in attacking the towns of Sirbu, Silea and Abu Siruj, among others. While these towns were located in a region controlled by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group, no evidence provided by the government of Sudan, international journalists or human rights groups indicates that rebel elements were present in these communities at the time of assault.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Sudan, and Asia

2435. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

2436. EU-African Economic Relations: Continuing Dominance, Traded for Aid?

Author:
Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Promising growth rates, increased trade, and competition among major global players for African resources have boosted the development and bargaining power of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in relation to the EU. However, Africa's least developed countries remain vulnerable to external shocks. Academic analysis is still too heavily influenced by scholastic controversies. Neither the controversy over “big-push” concepts nor the blaming of African culture as an impediment to growth or good government do justice to the real issues at stake. Even beyond the aftermath of (neo) colonialism, and notwithstanding continuing deficits in good government in many African countries, the EU bears responsibility for the fragile state of many African economies. The self-interested trade policies of the EU and other world powers contribute to poverty and unsatisfactory development in SSA. This threatens to perpetuate asymmetrical power relations in the new Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), to the detriment of regional integration and pro-poor growth. How- ever, mounting competition between China and other global players for Africa's resources is resulting in windfall profits for Africa. The latter is leading to a revival of seesaw politics, already known from the times of the Cold War, on the part of African states. This could be profitable for Africa's power elite, but not necessarily for Africa's poor.
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

2437. Poverty Reduction in China: Is High Growth Enough?

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Should growth or inequality be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies ? An oft cited paper by Dollar and Kraay of the World Bank advocates growth as the primary objective of development. Opponents argue that growth may not be pro-poor, thus growth alone is insufficient for poverty reduction—the ultimate goal of development. They instead emphasize redistribution as an important policy instrument. From a practical point of view, most policies involve trade-offs between efficiency (i.e., growth) and equity, at least in the short-run. With this in mind, development strategists and policymakers face the challenge or dilemma: what should be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies?
Political Geography:
China

2438. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point?

Author:
Fang Cai
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country's dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China's growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China's economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2439. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector

Author:
Peter Sheehan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

2440. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia