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2321. Inflation Scare: Crazy but Real

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The recent steps by the Federal Reserve to preempt deflation have—ironically and unexpectedly— prompted a surge in inflation fears both inside the United States and abroad, especially in China. Specifically, the Fed's measures to go beyond the stimulus inherent in a zero percent federal funds rate by purchasing Treasury and mortgage securities has conjured visions—especially in the eyes of major buyers of Treasury securities, China foremost— of massive money printing to underwrite trillions of dollars of additional government borrowing at low interest rates. As markets have shown, if that were the Fed's intention—which it decidedly is not—the effort would fail because excessive money printing—creating a money supply larger than the quantity of money demanded— would push up interest rates as inflation expectations rose.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

2322. Three Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than two years have passed since the U.S. housing bubble burst. That event ushered in a financial crisis that was not only intense but also stunning. So stunning in fact, that in August of last year, just a month before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global economy was close to a crisis worthy of comparison with the Great Depression, yet neither the markets nor the Federal Reserve had much of an inkling of what was to come. The Standard and Poor's (S) 500 Index had come down to about 1,300 from its October 2007 high of 1,576. Positive growth had just been reported for the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2008 at an annual rate of 2.8 percent (later revised down to 1.5 percent). Almost one percentage point of that growth came from U.S. consumption, and government spending also contributed. The wave of relief after the Bear Stearns scare in March 2008 had provided a nice boost to the economy and to markets. That boost was further enhanced by the substantial contribution to growth from net exports (2.9 percentage points) thanks to what was, then, continuing strength in the global economy, especially in China, which had reported blistering 10.1 percent year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2008. These and other positive components more than offset a drag from inventories and residential investment. In short, the real economy had not shown much evidence of damage emanating from the chaos that was churning in the financial sector.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and China

2323. Rethinking Liberalism: An Interview with Hernando de Soto

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The conventional wisdom that democracy and free market capitalism provide the best means available to achieve a high standard of living has come under attack. Many believe the current financial crisis is evidence that global capitalism has the potential to create a level of misery that is intolerable. Moreover, even before the crisis, sustained economic growth in certain countries seemed to contradict the widely held assertion that political liberalization inevitably accompanies its economic counterpart (as evidenced by the rise of China). Such challenges to the intellectual order behoove us to seek perspective on how and why these systems that underpin our economic and political interactions succeed or fail, and what their futures may be. In a recent interview with the Journal , Hernando de Soto helps us do exactly that.
Political Geography:
China

2324. Free Riders, Side Payments, and International Environmental Agreements: Is Kyoto Failing Because Montreal Succeeded?

Author:
Nadra Hashim
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Domestic laws concerning environmental pollution have always been divisive. When they are framed as international law, they become even more contentious. This is especially true in the current era where there has been notable recalcitrance on the part of India, China, and the United States to sign the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty which seeks to regulate world-wide carbon dioxide emissions. Yet, an examination of recent history suggests that there has been some success in at least one area of international law governing the regulation of environmental pollution. The Montreal Protocol, which induced its signatories to end the production and utilization of chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) is a testament to the notion that international law can sustain environmental protection.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

2325. Bridging the North-South Divide on Climate Post Copenhagen

Author:
John Whalley and Sean Walsh
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The United Nations climate change negotiations currently underway and now seemingly likely to conclude only six to 12 months after the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) hosted meeting at Copenhagen in December 2009, are beset by a series of obstacles, the most fundamental of which reflect the North-South divide, largely between the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD economies. In this brief we argue that movement across this divide is the single most important element in a successful conclusion to the negotiation. Current obstacles reflect asymmetries between developing and developed countries both in terms of growth in carbon emissions — and hence the costs of reducing emissions proportionately relative to some base date level, but also in terms of historical emissions as a source of damage. These are compounded by the imprecision of the negotiating mandate — a lack of a clear definition of the basic principles involved, particularly in the case of the original UNFCCC principle of common yet differentiated responsibilities, which accepts but does not clearly delineate differentiated responsibilities for developing and developed countries on climate change. Significant movement in the negotiating position of either side (or both) is likely a necessity for a climate deal to be reached even in post-Copenhagen negotiations. However, the recent unilateral commitment by China to reduce emissions by 40-45 percent per unit of GDP from a 2005 base year by 2020 is a positive first step.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Third World
Political Geography:
China and United Nations

2326. Russia's Great Leap Downward

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

2327. China's Laboratory

Author:
Stephen J. Blank
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
China's rising economic and military power is unmistakable. There is enormous concern today, in Washington and elsewhere, about the future trajectory of PRC power and policy. Chinese President Hu Jintao has repeatedly promised that his country will never be an imperial power, or pursue military hegemony over anyone.1 Obviously the true test of these statements, however, is China's actual approach to its neighbors and interlocutors. And Central Asia, which includes China's restive province of Xinjiang, home to a large and discontented Muslim population, is one place where we can see Chinese policy in action. The rioting that occurred in the summer of 2009 underscores the extent of potential unrest there and its importance to China.
Political Geography:
China, Washington, and Central Asia

2328. Bumps in the Road

Author:
Willy Lam
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
HONG KONG-Still remember "Pax Chinamerica"? As recently as this spring, China was supposed to be the de facto quasi-superpower that was closing in on the United States-and the two behemoths seemed destined to become the arbiters of a new global geopolitical and economic order. The PRC's fast-expanding status was amply demonstrated by the photo op at the London G20 Summit in April. President and Commander-in-Chief Hu Jintao, the supremo who has done more than anybody to catapult his nation to superstardom, was seated right next to Queen Elizabeth II, while U.S. President Barack Obama was somewhere in the back row.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and London

2329. Attitudes and Perceptions of Prospective International Students from India

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Education
Abstract:
India is currently the top place of origin international students studying at U.S. colleges and universities. Over the past decade, the number of Indian students in the U.S. has increased more than 175 percent, from just under 37,500 students in 1998/99 to over 103,000 in 2008/09. India has, in fact, been the leading place of origin since 2001/02, when it surpassed China. Since 2007/08, students from India have comprised over 15% of all international students in the United States.
Topic:
Education
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

2330. Beyond Market Forces: Regulating the Global Security Industry

Author:
James Cockayne (ed.)
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In late 2008, seventeen states, including the US, UK, China, Iraq, Afghanistan, and others, endorsed the Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict (2008). This provides important guidance to states in regulating private military and security companies (PMSCs). However, there is a need to do more, to provide increased guidance to the industry and ensure standards are enforced.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Markets
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, and Iraq