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2152. Population Policy, Economic Reform, and Fertility Decline in Guangdong Province, China
- Author:
- Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Cui Hongyan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
2153. The G20 Meetings: No Common Framework, No Consensus
- Author:
- Michael Pettis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Participants in the recently completed G20 meeting in London agreed on a number of measures, some substantial and some merely symbolic, but they sidestepped the real issues dividing the major economic powers and, in so doing, failed to address the root causes of the global trade and investment imbalances. This was almost inevitable. China, Europe, and the United States have incompatible conceptual frameworks for understanding the causes of the global financial crisis; furthermore, their conflicting domestic political constraints make agreement on solutions hard to reach. Europeans believe that the root cause of the crisis was excessively deregulated financial systems, and they are skeptical about U.S. and Chinese calls for fiscal expansion, worrying that excessive spending would prolong the imbalances and make the ultimate adjustment more difficult. China also believes that the roots of the crisis lie within the structure of the global financial system, although Beijing insists that it was mainly the reserve status of the U.S. dollar that permitted imbalances to develop to unsustainable levels. China is particularly vulnerable to trade protection and seeks to maintain open markets for its continued export of domestic overcapacity. Like the United States, it is pushing for more aggressive, globally coordinated fiscal expansion. However, because of rigidities in its financial system and development model, its fiscal response to the crisis may exacerbate the difficult global adjustment and may, ironically, increase the chances of trade friction. In a time of contracting demand, the United States controls two-thirds of the most valuable resource in the world: net demand. Consequently, it is U.S. policies that will determine the pace and direction of the global recovery, along with the institutional framework that will govern trade and investment relationships for decades to come. The crisis puts the United States more firmly at the center of the emerging world order than ever. So far, the United States has not understood the need to consider the global outcomes of its recovery policies. Until the major powers can reach consensus about the roots of the imbalance and cooperate on policies to promote recovery, it is likely that the world economy will get worse before it gets better. The United States will drive the recovery process, but in order to do so effectively it will need to recognize its position of strength and negotiate the appropriate agreements with other major powers, especially China, on the pace and nature of the adjustment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and London
2154. "The Social Market Roots of Democratic Peace"
- Author:
- Michael Mousseau
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Democracy does not cause peace among nations. An analysis of conflicts from 1961 to 2001 shows that the absence of war between democratic countries depends on domestic economic factors-such as a contract-intensive economy-rather than on democracy. Because China and Russia lack this type of economy, an economic divide will define great power politics in the coming decade. Democratic leaders of nations with contract-intensive economies would do better to support global economic opportunity than to promote democracy abroad.
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
2155. "Bridge over Troubled Water? Envisioning a China-Taiwan Peace Agreement"
- Author:
- Phillip C. Saunders and Scott L. Kastner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- After eight years of cross-strait tensions, the decisive 2008 Taiwan election victories by the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalist Party) and KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou provide a major opportunity to improve relations between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party welcomed Ma's victory as reducing the threat of Taiwan independence and creating an atmosphere for resumed dialogue and closer ties. Recognizing that final resolution of Taiwan's status is currently impossible, leaders on both sides have raised the possibility of negotiating a peace agreement that might stabilize the cross-strait situation. If successful, an agreement might greatly reduce the chance of a crisis that could draw the United States and China into a military conflict. Such an agreement could also provide a positive example that might apply to other cases of long-term political or ethnic conflict. This article examines what a China-Taiwan peace agreement might look like and whether it could be effective in managing tensions and reducing the risk of war.
- Topic:
- War and Water
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Taiwan
2156. Implications of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for International Law: The Conduct of the Community of States in Current Secession Conflicts
- Author:
- Heiko Krueger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Institution:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The objective of this article is to examine whether the current conduct of the community of states in the cases of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia has any implications on international law. This question arises particularly in the case of Kosovo, since many states have recognised its separation from Serbia. Can the conduct of the community of states be used as a legal precedent by other groups seeking separation, e.g. in Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Moldova, Spain or Ukraine? What if more states were to recognise Kosovo in the future? The focus of this paper will be to consider the implications of the conduct of the community of states on the interpretation of international treaties and customary international law. In this respect, the conduct of states in the cases of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in August 2008 will also be taken into account.
- Topic:
- International Law
- Political Geography:
- China, Ukraine, Moldova, Kosovo, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Georgia, Spain, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
2157. How the West Was Won: China\'s Expansion into Central Asia
- Author:
- Henryk Szadziewski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Institution:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the People\'s Republic of China, the Great Western Development Drive has been promoted as a solution to the economic inequalities that exist between the eastern and western regions of the country. Although the initiative has overt economic objectives, these are accompanied by political objectives of internal security in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, an area also known as East Turkestan. The Great Western Development Drive also works in conjunction with China\'s economic and political objectives for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As a bridge to the markets of Central Asia, the Great Western Development Drive in East Turkestan has built an infrastructure with which China can export goods and import natural resources. Greater economic cooperation between Central Asia and China has also permitted the silencing of Uyghur dissent in Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states. The net result of China\'s expansion into Central Asia for Uyghurs in the region and in East Turkestan has been economic and political marginalization, most notably in the visible exclusion from the policies and projects of the Great Western Development Drive.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, and Asia
2158. China's $1.5 Trillion Bet: Understanding China's External Portfolio
- Author:
- Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper was originally published in January 2009. The May update incorporates quarter one 2009 data on China's foreign reserves, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) capital flows data for December, January, and February, and the results of the June 2008 survey of foreign portfolio investment in the United States. The June 2008 survey indicated that China bought fewer Treasury bonds and more equities than the authors estimated in the January paper.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
2159. Liberalisierung in Zeiten der Instabilität: Spielräume unkonventioneller Partizipation im autoritären Regime der VR China
- Author:
- Günter Schucher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Unkonventionelle Partizipation in autoritäre n Regimen wird in der Regel als Bedrohung für das politische System und als Beitrag zu se iner Demokratisierung gesehen. Diese Sichtweise vernachlässigt allerdings, dass Proteste nicht unbedingt gegen das System gerichtet sind und dass die politische Führung nicht nur reagiert, sondern auch selbst Möglichkeiten hat, Legitimität zu generier en. Sie kann z. B. die Beteiligungsmöglichkeiten erweitern, ohne Entscheidungsmacht abzugeben, oder au ch die Verantwortung für die Lösung von Konflikten auf die lokale Ebene verschieben, um so Schuldzuweisungen für negative Folgen ihrer Politik zu vermeiden. Eine Auswert ung von Protestereignissen in China zeigt, dass es der chinesischen Führung mit diesen Stra tegien bisher gelungen ist, ihre Position zu stabilisieren.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Communism, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China
2160. The Internationalization of Chinese and Indian Firms: Trends, Motivations and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Sandeep Kapur and Suma Athreye
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The last two decades have seen a significant rise in the internationalization of firms from developing economies. In addition to their growing participation in international trade, a number of leading emerging economies are contributing to growing outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. According to the 2008 World Investment Report, outward flows of FDI from developing countries rose from about US$6 billion between 1989 and 1991 to US$225 billion in 2007. As a percentage of total global outflows, the share of developing countries grew from 2.7% to nearly 13.0% during this period.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and India