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102. The cross-border impacts of China’s official rate shocks on stock returns of Chinese concepts shares listed on U.S. market
- Author:
- Dong Weijia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This paper examines a new cross-border effect of an emerging country’s interest rate changes on the stock returns of its domestic firms listed overseas. First, we discover that the increase in China’s official interest rate greatly affects the NYSE-listed Chinese stocks, thereby suggesting that similar to Chinese domestic investors, the institutional investors in a mature market sometimes exhibit irrational sentiment driven by an emerging economy’s unexpected monetary policy shocks. Second, we highlight some novel asymmetric impacts of China’s official rate changes on Chinese concepts stock prices and reveal that these effects differ from the conventional nonlinear effects of monetary policies. For instance, a bull and bear regime has no statistically significant asymmetric effect on NYSE, whereas interest rate rise has different cross-border impact on Nasdaq and NYSE markets. These interesting findings are mainly driven by the smart investors in the U.S. stock market who are knowledgeable about the differences between NYSE- and Nasdaq-listed stocks and carefully analyze the different impacts of China’s official interest rate changes on the fundamentals of different types of Chinese concepts stocks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
103. Comovement of Home Prices: A Conditional Copula Approach
- Author:
- Lei Hou, Wei Long, and Qi Li
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Even though housing markets in different areas are relatively localized, regional home prices have become closely correlated and tend to be simultaneously affected by many national economic factors. In this paper, through the dynamic copula model, we confirm that regional home price dependence is time-varying and the conventional time-invariant copulas underestimate the degree of dependence during economic expansions and recessions. In essence, the U.S. residential real estate market has become more integrated since the mid-1980s. Using the conditional copula model, we further identify how the dependence among regional housing markets evolves along with some fundamental economic factors such as unemployment rate and interest rate. These findings can help investors and home buyers to better identify and evaluate the systematic risk in the nationwide housing market.
- Topic:
- Economics, Unemployment, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
104. Evaluating the impact of fossil fuel vehicles exit on the oil demand in China
- Author:
- Ziru Feng, Tian Cai, Kangli Xiang, Chenxi Xiang, and Lei Hou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China's vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles under the scenarios of slow, medium, and rapid substitution. The main contribution of this paper is making a more detailed estimation on the main parameters such as the saturation level and growth rate of the vehicle ownership by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast the future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: ①The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. ②Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China's auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces in fuel demand due to the economic and demographic factors, with the expected fuel demand of 76.76, 64.91 and 63.95Mt respectively. ③Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 653, 615 and 578 Mt respectively under the scenarios of slow, medium and fast substitution. Even under the scenario of slow substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will be 94 Mt, accounting for 26.3% of China's net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this study provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Oil, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
105. WTO accession, trade expansion, and air pollution: Evidence from China’s county-level panel data
- Author:
- Shuai Chen, Faqin Lin, Xi Yao, and Peng Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This study provides evidence that trade expansion has contributed to the degradation of air pollution in China. On the basis of different responses of counties’ trade to China’s World Trade Organization accession at the end of 2001, we exploit air pollution data from NASA to construct a difference-in-differences predicted trade as an instrument for our identification. We document statistically significant and robust evidence on trade expansion, which accounts for approximately 60% and 20% for the increase of PM2.5 and SO2, respectively, in China. Findings on trade pollution relation are robust to various tests. Deterioration in the environment is mainly driven by scale and trade in polluting sectors.
- Topic:
- Trade, Pollution, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
106. The Impact of COVID-19 on World Economy and China’s Role
- Author:
- Xu Xiujun
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen more countries to experience “three lows and three highs” problems. The pandemic triggered the exposure of these accumulated risks, leading to a slump in world economic growth. Given the developing trend of world economy amid the ongoing pandemic, the world may face a range of challenges for a long time to go, e.g. insufficient momentum for economic growth, increased resistance for market opening and rising debt risks. As the world economy suffers a major hit, China has been active in providing the international community with the assistance needed to combat the COVID-19 and recover the economy, while China’s economy itself has shown strong resilience and stability. In the long run, the pandemic will not change the sound momentum of China’s economic development; rather, it will provide an opportunity for China to play a significant role in the world economy.
- Topic:
- Economy, Global Political Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
107. Fight the COVID-19 Pandemic and Improve Global Health Governance
- Author:
- Lin Ren, Aizong Xiong, Guoding Wu, Chen Shen, Xu Tian, and Bo Peng
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The fast spreading of the COVID-19 across the globe points to the urgency of strengthening global health governance. As the core global health governance institution, the WHO has taken a series of actions after the eruption of the epidemic and played an important role in providing guidance and coordinating global forces to combat the epidemic. The epidemic, however, has also exposed some defects of the global health governance mechanism, especially the WHO, and posed challenge to it. The international community needs to strengthen its support for the WHO to improve its role in the global health governance.
- Topic:
- Health, Governance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
108. China in a Changed World
- Author:
- Naima Green-Riley, Kibrom Teweldebirhan, and Ruodi Duan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Centerpiece
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- For decades, the Graduate Student Associate (GSA) Program has sat, literally and figuratively, at the heart of the Weatherhead Center. Established in the late 1960s, the program now comprises some twenty-five doctoral students from nearly a dozen different departments and programs across Harvard. Students appointed as Weatherhead GSAs get office space, research funding, and membership in a diverse community of like-minded scholars. While they work across different disciplines and deploy an array of research methodologies, they all share an interest in the core research areas of the Weatherhead Center and an open-minded approach to scholarly inquiry and exchange. If the GSA program sits at the heart of the Center, at the heart of the program itself is the long-running Friday lunch seminar. Every Friday we would gather in the Bowie-Vernon Room, the Center’s main seminar space, to catch up, share great food, and hear and discuss the work of one of the GSAs. Presentations have ranged from testing out potential dissertation topics to mock job talks and everything in between. Over the years, many GSAs have testified to how profoundly the program influenced their lives, helping to shape their intellectual trajectories and launching lifelong friendships. For a program with such emphasis on community, the recent campus lockdown presented a special challenge. Since mid-March, students have been unable to use their offices, and the Friday lunches have moved online. And while important things were lost in this transition—not least the freestyle socializing that began each gathering and the famous, Clare Putnam-curated lunch buffets—the intellectual exchanges have remained as fascinating and robust as ever. Of course, the insights that GSAs produce go far beyond these gatherings, and many have been contributing to the wide-ranging public conversation about the current crisis. The following short selections, focused on the question of the pandemic’s impact on China through an international lens, is yet more evidence that our GSAs remain as brilliant and as engaged as ever.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
109. Artificial Intelligence Is Already Transforming the Alliance: It’s Time for NATO and the EU to Catch Up
- Author:
- Kulani Abendroth-Dias and Carolin Kiefer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Women In International Security (WIIS)
- Abstract:
- For delivery within the European Union, Amazon now sells facial recognition cameras for door locks, webcams, home security systems, and office attendance driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)—powerful tools with civilian and military purposes. Germany, France, Spain, Denmark and Romania have tested and often deployed AI and ML facial recognition tools, many of which were developed in the United States and China, for predictive policing and border control. AI and ML systems aid in contact tracing and knowledge sharing to contain the COVID-19 virus. However, the civilian and military strategies that drive use of AI and ML for the collection and use of data diverge across the member states of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Topic:
- NATO, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
110. Stronger Together: NATO’s Evolving Approach toward China
- Author:
- Naďa Kovalčíková and Gabrielle Tarin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Women In International Security (WIIS)
- Abstract:
- The rise of China poses a strategic challenge for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Alliance needs a comprehensive political, economic, and security strategy to deal with China’s growing global power. The more assertive a role China plays in world affairs, the more it could undercut NATO’s cohesion and military advantages by translating commercial inroads in Europe into political influence, investing in strategically important sectors, and achieving major breakthroughs in advanced digital technologies.
- Topic:
- NATO, Science and Technology, International Security, Digital Cooperation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe