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352. Kyrgyzstan: A Small Arms Anomaly in Central Asia?
- Author:
- S. Neil MacFarlane and Stina Torjesen Torjesen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Central Asia is often portrayed as a hotbed of potential conflict. With this report, the Small Arms Survey seeks to determine whether the Kyrgyz Republic, by virtue of its location, should indeed be grouped with its friction-prone neighbours. Weak state structures, a history of ethnic tension, inequality, and poverty – features that characterize the Kyrgyz state – are factors that normally fuel the proliferation of arms. The ripple effects of the fragile situation in Afghanistan are also expected to have effects on Central Asian countries. This in-depth study has found, however, that small arms are less of a problem in Kyrgyzstan than commonly assumed: few families own arms; demand is limited; and trafficking is modest. While the proliferation of small arms may pose a serious threat in countries such as Afghanistan and Tajikistan, this assertion cannot be applied to Central Asia as a whole. This report highlights the need for the disaggregation of regional generalizations and seeks to explain why Kyrgyzstan is different from its southern neighbours.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Tajikistan
353. Between Integration and Resettlement: The Meskhetian Turks
- Author:
- Tom Trier and Oskari Pentikäinen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- The Meskhetian Turks is a population, which was deported to Central Asia, along with seven other ethnic groups in the Soviet Union during World War II. Whilst other deported people, Chechens, Ingush, Balkars, Karachais and Kalmyks were rehabilitated after Stalin's death and allowed to resettle in their pre-deportation territories, three groups were not permitted to return. These included the Crimean Tatars, who were only to be rehabilitated with the demise of the Soviet Union, and have subsequently returned in significant numbers to Crimea in Ukraine over the past 15 years. Another group, the Volga Germans, originally deported from the Soviet Volga German Republic, have largely emigrated to Germany in the post Soviet Era, and do not have territorial aspirations in the Volga region. Hence, the Meskhetian Turks are the last of the 8 deported peoples, for whom rehabilitation and resettlement remains unresolved.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Central Asia
354. Serbia's U-turn
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In politics and policies, Serbia increasingly resembles the Milosevic-era without Milosevic. Its reaction to the catastrophic mid-March 2004 near collapse of the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the strong showing by ultra-nationalists in the 28 December 2003 parliamentary elections and the subsequent two-months of squabbling before democratic parties could form a minority government that depends for survival on the support of Milosevic's old party all are signs that more trouble lies ahead. In 2004 Serbia can anticipate continued political instability, increasingly strained relations with the West and further economic decline. The spasm of ethnic cleansing of Serbs by Albanians in Kosovo has raised the prospect of Kosovo partition, strengthened the nationalist right wing and increased anti-Western sentiment. Instability and economic weakness could hasten moves by Montenegro towards independence, while Kosovo tensions could spill over into the Presevo valley, Sandzak and even Vojvodina.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
355. Collapse In Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 17 March 2004, the unstable foundations of four and a half years of gradual progress in Kosovo buckled and gave way. Within hours the province was immersed in anti-Serb and anti-UN rioting and had regressed to levels of violence not seen since 1999. By 18 March the violence mutated into the ethnic cleansing of entire minority villages and neighbourhoods. The mobs of Albanian youths, extremists and criminals exposed the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the NATO-led peacekeeping force (KFOR) as very weak. Kosovo's provisional institutions of self-government (PISG), media and civil society afforded the rioters licence for mayhem. The international community urgently needs new policies -- on final status and socio-economic development alike -- or Kosovo instability may infect the entire region.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kosovo, United Nations, and Albania
356. Elections and Security in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Representatives of the Afghan government, the UN and the major donor countries and institutions will assemble in Berlin on 31 March and 1 April for the first high-level diplomatic meeting on Afghanistan in more than two years. The principal objective is to secure substantial long-term aid commitments -- the Afghan government seeks U.S.$27.6 billion over seven years. In addition to meeting this global figure, it will be important for donors to make multi-year pledges that provide a basis for predictability and to increase cash on hand for immediate projects over the coming year. All this is needed if Afghanistan's governance and security institutions are to be reconstructed, development goals met, and poverty alleviated.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and United Nations
357. The Failure of Reform in Uzbekistan: Ways Forward for the International Community
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Uzbekistan occupies a key strategic position in Central Asia and has a strong security relationship with the U.S. but its political system is highly repressive and its economy is barely reformed since Soviet times. Economic decline and political sclerosis threaten internal stability and undermine regional security. The international community has long urged political and economic reform, but with little success. With no significant progress on either front in 2003, it is time for the U.S., the EU and international financial institutions to begin to shift policies: reducing lending and assistance to the central government, while increasing engagement with society and the private sector.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan
358. Pan-Albanianism: How Big A Threat To Balkan Stability?
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Pan-Albanianism is seen by many observers as a serious threat to Balkan stability. A century of shifting borders has left ethnic Albanians scattered across Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the National Liberation Army (NLA) in Macedonia, and other groups have all waged campaigns of violence in support of enhanced rights for ethnic Albanians. Where is the ceiling to their ambitions?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro
359. Spatial Inequality and Development in Central Asia
- Author:
- Kathryn Anderson and Richard Pomfret
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on inequality in living standards across oblasts and regions within Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Regional inequality is an important area of research and policy development. Inequality in income and consumption are logical outcomes in a market-based economic system. If inequality within countries exists because of barriers to competition, then inequality can foment internal tension, and economic and social development within countries is negatively affected. We examine Living Standards Measurement data from Tajikistan, Kyrgystan, and Kazakhstan and additional survey data from Uzbekistan. We find that the most important explanations for the variation in expenditures per capita in the region are household location, household composition, and education. We find large variation in per capita expenditure by location within each country, and the differences go beyond the simple rural-urban distinction. Family structure is also important, and in all countries, having a university educated household head significantly improves household welfare; expenditures are higher in these households than in households with less educated heads. We examine inequality in access to community services and find that provision of public goods reinforces regional inequality patterns in expenditures that we measure among households. The poorest households are likely to live in communities with the lowest access to public services.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
360. Future of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China
- Author:
- Selçuk Çolakoglu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- Sino-Russian bilateral relations have steadily developed during the 1990s. With the help of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which was established in 1996, China and Russia had the chance to balance the hegemony of the US in the world and to prevent the interfering of other great powers to central Eurasian issues. Central Asian countries, which have been historically and strategically squeezed between Russia and China, have also taken part in the SCO. With the US military operation of Afghanistan after September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001, the new era has started in Central Asia and the SCO has been affected negatively within this process. The attitude of Russia and China is very important for the future of the SCO as an organization. The SCO will be able to protect its entity and continue to develop, as long as the cooperation between China and Russia carries on depending on mutual interests.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Central Asia, and Asia