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141. Spillovers from the Arab Revolts: Is Armenia next in line?

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The recent cycle of revolutions in Arab countries has caught policy-makers and experts off guard. The decades-long kleptocracy, systemic corruption, economic stagnation and censorship are merely some of named causes accounting for the shake-up of the old order in Europe's Southern Neighbourhood. The choices that citizens were deprived of making through the ballot box have been accomplished by taking to the streets. Policymakers and analysts are contemplating the possible scenarios for the countries that have finally brought down their dictators. EU leaders are debating support they can provide to help in the establishment of 'good governance.' Meanwhile questions are being asked about the possible implications of the successful revolutions beyond the Arab world and especially for the EU's Eastern neighbours. In his recent speech, the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, stated: “Although recent developments concentrated our political attention to the South, we certainly cannot afford to forget about the Union's Eastern neighbourhood.”
Topic:
Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Arab Countries, and Armenia

142. Getting on the Right Track: The EU Eastern Partnership

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The EU's Eastern Partnership with the Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus and Azerbaijan has now been in place for two years. But the EU is not looking eastwards much these days – it is looking inwards to tackle the aftermath of the financial crisis, and south to the Arab Spring. At the same time, the enthusiasm of the Eastern partners seems to be fading. The EU Commission's recent review of the European Neighborhood Policy points in the right direction but if the partnership is to make any sense, it is necessary to make it more attractive.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Arabia

143. Caucasus and Central Asia in Turkish Foreign Policy: The Time Has Come for a New Regional Policy

Author:
M. Efe Çaman and M. Ali Akyurt
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
After the end of the Cold War, the disintegration of the Soviet Union (USSR) and the emergence of new independent states in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Turkey was forced to restructure its regional policy concept and started a new pursuit in its foreign policy. Turkey has been in interaction with this transition geography and has a complex array of economic, political and cultural relations with its neighboring re- gions. Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) assumed power in 2002, Turkey has been trying to follow a pro-active regional policy approach and solve existing problems with its “zero problems with neighbors” policy concept. This article focuses on the Turkish regional policy in Caucasus and Central Asia and provides an assessment of this policy. It argues that Turkey needs a new applicable, feasible and realistic action plan regarding the Caucasus and Central Asia in order to combine its normative outlook with the realities of the region. The article asserts that in order to enhance cultural, economic and politi- cal ties with the region, first, the necessary structural and institutional conditions have to be created.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Cold War
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Caucasus, and South Sudan

144. Strengthening Oversight of the Security Sector

Author:
Erik Sportel (ed) and Vasili Tchkoidze (ed)
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
Since the 2003 Rose Revolution, Georgia has undertaken serious reforms, moving the country towards becoming a democracy and a market economy. Instead of proceeding at a steady pace, Georgia has chosen to take an accelerated path to reform. Since coming to office, the Saakashvili administration has underlined its ambition to bring Georgia into Euro-Atlantic structures. After an energetic start, Georgia ran into difficulties in late 2007 and 2008. During this period, the democratic credential s of the Saakashvili government were put to the test for the first time. The government was faced with massive public demonstrations, to which it res ponded in a heavy-handed fashion. The security forces attacked protesters, and the government declared a state of emergency, blaming the unrest on Russia. M any domestic and foreign observers feared that Georgia was abandoning the road to democracy. However, the state of emergency was soon lifted, and the government called an early presidential election. International observer s judged the election to be largely democratic, despite some irregularities, but opposition forces claimed that the president's results had been boosted by fraud. Mr Saakashvili won an absolute majority in the first round of polling. The subsequent parliamentary elections in the spring of 2008 gave the ruling United National Movement party a landslide victory. With 119 out of 150 seats, the party currently holds a two-thirds majority in parliament. The two major opposition parties (winning 17 and six seats respectively) refused to take their seats in parliament.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Caucasus

145. Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2011 (Volume 2)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard 2011 (Volume 2)
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Politics, Governance, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

146. Will IMF Intervention Help Belarus Solve Its Old Problems?

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
On May 31, 2011 the Government and National Bank of Belarus (NBB) announced that they would ask for a new stand-by loan from the IMF. The requests for external assistance followed several unsuccessful government attempts to overcome the serious macroeconomic crisis that has been developing in the country since the beginning of 2010. A key question arises, can external loans help Belarus to overcome its current crisis?
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

147. NOTE FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Author:
Nasimi Aghayev
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
Events in the Caucasus have continued to offer observers choice issues for analysis. On everyone's mind, of course, is the lack of development in the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. The two sticking-points – the “Armenian genocide” issue and that of acknowledging Azerbaijan's call for first making progress toward a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – have remained major obstacles in the way forward. The “genocide” obstacle has been strengthened by the statement of the Constitutional Court of Armenia that the application of the protocols signed in October 2009 should comply with the paragraph 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence. The said declaration determines for Armenia a goal of achieving the international recognition of the “genocide” on the one hand, and raises territorial claims against Turkey on the other hand. Ankara's reaction to the statement has been quite harsh, since such an understanding on the part of Armenia of the normalization process wouldn't allow for setting up the bilateral “historical commission” envisaged in the protocols – an issue, which has been regarded by Turkey as the major achievement in the whole process.
Political Geography:
America, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

148. "The Guns of August 2008: Russia's War in Georgia"

Author:
Till Bruckner
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
“At the very least, it will be all but impossible hereafter for anyone to deny that Russia had engaged in detailed planning for precisely the war that occurred,” write editors Svante Cornell and Frederick Starr of the Central Asia–Caucasus Institute Silk Road Studies Program in the introduction of their new book on the August 2008 conflict between Georgia and Russia.
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Asia, and Georgia

149. "The Caucasus: An Introduction"

Author:
Alexander Jackson
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
Frederik Coene is no stranger to the Caucasus. Currently the Attaché dealing with post-conflict assistance in the European Commissions' Mission to Georgia, he has also worked in organisations on both sides of the Caucasus Mountains, dealing with conflicts and developments. It is unfortunate that Mr Coene's on-ground experience – he worked in the North Caucasus during the savage violence of the Beslan school siege, for instance - does not always come through in this informative, but sometimes slightly shallow, volume.
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Somalia

150. From Racketeer to Emir: A Political Portrait of Doku Umarov, Russia's Most Wanted Man

Author:
Kevin Daniel Leahy
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
On March 29, 2010, two female suicide assailants blew themselves up at two separate locations along Moscow's underground network, killing at least 39 people. Two days later, the leader of the rebel movement in the Northern Caucasus, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the attacks. For those monitoring the political situation in the Northern Caucasus, Umarov's claim of responsibility came as no surprise. Even so, few analysts have been able to shed any meaningful light on Umarov's core political beliefs. This is not surprising considering that so much of Umarov's background remains shrouded in uncertainty. The following paper represents a tentative attempt to sketch Umarov's private and political background, from his early adulthood in the early 1980s up to his portentous proclamation of the Caucasus Emirate in 2007.
Political Geography:
Russia and Caucasus