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81. An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Economic

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
For many years, the economies of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, like most of the world’s economies, have been confronted with numerous fluctuations in the price of raw materials on international markets. For these predominantly extroverted economies, that is, those dependent on export earnings, these price variations have consequences for their macroeconomic performance and the conduct of economic policy. Like most economic crises in the world in the past, the pandemic caused by the new Coronavirus that has been raging since 2020 has also brought with it many changes. Between the confinement measures taken by public authorities to curb the spread of the virus and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity, there has been an inevitable significant drop in global oil demand. The direct consequence of such a scenario is the fall in oil prices on world markets, which is very bad news for the public finances of oil-exporting countries. The main objective of this report is to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on the conduct of monetary policy in the CEMAC. We start from the observation that oil shocks are the source of strong inflationary pressures in these economies. It is the responsibility of monetary policy to ensure price stability. Thus, after analyzing the effects of oil price fluctuations on the world economy as well as the macroeconomic and financial implications of these fluctuations on the economies in 2020, we use a Vector Auto Regressive model to analyze the contribution of oil price shocks on the historical dynamics of macroeconomic variables in the various CEMAC countries between 2001 and 2020. Then, we use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to analyze the impact of oil price changes on monetary policy in the CEMAC.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Global Markets, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, Cameroon, and Central Africa

82. Should We Consider A Post-Covid-19 Reform Of The VAT In Cameroon?

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic so far has had a profound impact on the global economy. The containment measures adopted by governments to curb the spread of the disease have curtailed business activities, making it impossible for companies to adequately meet their tax obligations. As a result, forecasts for customs revenues and internal tax resources have been revised downward, mainly due to the closure of borders. Collected both at the borders and within the country, Value Added Taxes revenues have naturally been very negatively affected by the crisis. In Cameroon, losses related to value added tax in 2020 were estimated at CFAF 298.017 billion, representing 50.73 percent of recorded tax losses, which is hardly surprising. Value-added taxes are identified as the main source of tax revenue in Cameroon. They were estimated at 44.73% of tax revenue in 2019 and about 7% more than in 2016. The importance of VAT in tax revenue mobilization requires an examination of the Cameroonian tax system, particularly the factors that could explain a reform of the tax. Moreover, given that Cameroon is at high risk of external debt distress (IMF, 2018), there is an urgent need to find new ways to ensure the continued sustainability of public finances. This Tax Policy Letter analyzes the rationale for VAT reform in Cameroon. First, we present the severity of the economic repercussions of the coronavirus health crisis at the level of VAT revenues in Cameroon. Noting that VAT is the main source of indirect tax revenue – 60.19% in 2019 compared to 54.54% in 2016, for example – we then examine the guiding principles that govern its collection and application in Cameroon. A careful examination of these principles has allowed us to analyze the benefits associated with a reform of this tax on final consumption.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

83. The Declaration and Payment of Taxes in Cameroon: A Critical Appraisal

Author:
Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu, Ulrich D’POLA KAMDEM, and Dinga Tambi
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Nkafu Policy Institute is delighted to share with you the results of a report that critically appraises the declaration and payment of taxes in Cameroon. Indeed, since 2004 the Doing Business Index (DBI) of the World Bank has been ranking national economies based on their performance in several domains. One of these domains includes the “paying taxes” indicator. It records taxes and mandatory contributions that medium-size companies must pay in a given year and equally measures the administrative burden of paying taxes and contributions and complying with post-filing procedures. Therefore, the weight of the tax burden remains a decisive element in the attractiveness of an economy as it encourages or dissuades national and foreign investors, widens or reduces the tax base, stimulates or refrains entrepreneurship. During the 2009 and 2016 General Census of Enterprises by the National Institute of Statistics, the following key question was asked to top management personnel: “What are the most important obstacles to entrepreneurship in Cameroon?” Taxation was cited as the first major obstacle regardless of cities, according to National Institute of Statistics reports.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, World Bank, Regulation, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

84. Communications Shutdowns

Author:
Irene Dawa
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Internet shutdowns – and especially social media disruptions – in Africa are becoming more frequent, mostly around election times and during national exams. A significant communications shutdown occurred in Cameroon in 2018 and lasted 249 days, costing the country US$38 853 122.1 In 2016, an internet shutdown in India cost US$968 080 702.2 Data shows that globally, India leads, with 70% of all known large-scale shutdowns.3 In Africa, Cameroon leads, with 249 days in 2018.4 Some of the reasons cited by governments for shutting down the internet and communications includes national security, political events and school exams. A communications shutdown entails cutting people off from the rest of the world, creating ambiguity and frustration and preventing access to information, which triggers strikes or protests that may become violent. This article examines two case studies – Kashmir and Cameroon – where recent communications shutdowns have led to violent conflict. The information for Kashmir was collected qualitatively – that is, observation and interviews were the key tools used, during a visit to Kashmir in 2019. Ten key informant interviews were conducted with different stakeholders who were affected by the crisis. The interviewees worked in local hospitals or small businesses. In the case of Cameroon, a desk review was undertaken to understand and analyse the conflict. Information was also gleaned from non-governmental organisations working in Kashmir and Cameroon. The communications shutdowns in Cameroon and Kashmir involved disrupting telephone, internet and mobile networks. These recent events in the two countries, which hampered people’s ability to communicate with each other and be informed, and which also included detention of people without trial, especially in Kashmir, violated Article 1 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This states: “All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reasons and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.” Also, Article 9 states: “No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrests and detention,”5 and calls for the right of political prisoners to have access to justice and get fair trials, which was apparently not the case. There is a close link between conflict, human rights and the denial of rights, as they can lead to the frustration of needs related to identity, welfare, freedom and security, which are fundamental rights for survival. If rights are denied, needs are frustrated – which can lead to violent conflict as people seek ways to address their basic needs and violated rights.6 Everyone has the fundamental right to express their opinion, as indicated by the United Nations (UN): “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.”7
Topic:
Communications, Social Media, Conflict, Oppression, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, India, Asia, Kashmir, and Cameroon

85. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities

Author:
Tyler Jess Thompson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
Topic:
United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus

86. R2P Monitor, Issue 50, 15 March 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 50 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Central African Republic, Nigeria and Venezuela. The publication of the 50th issue of R2P Monitor coincides with the 15th anniversary of the adoption of R2P at the UN World Summit in 2005. The occasion of the 15th anniversary presents the international community with an opportunity to deepen global commitment to R2P and set an ambitious and practical vision to ensure consistent implementation in the years ahead.
Topic:
Conflict, Crisis Management, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

87. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

88. R2P Monitor, Issue 52, 15 July 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 52 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

89. R2P Monitor, Issue 51, 15 May 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 51 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

90. R2P Monitor, Issue 54, 15 November 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 54 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia/Azerbaijan), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh