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21. Gauging the Gravity of the Situation: The Use and Abuse of Expertise in Estimating the Economic Costs of Brexit

Author:
Christoph Semken and Colin Hay
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
HM Treasury’s estimation of the economic consequences of Brexit – using standard macroeconomic models – during the EU referendum campaign represents a remarkable intervention in a highly politicized public debate. It raises a series of questions about the use of economic expertise. Through a detailed theoretical and empirical critique of the Treasury’s methodology – and a reassessment of the likely effects of Brexit in light of this – we cast doubt on the utility of their approach, highlighting methodological issues, unrealistic assumptions, and misrepresentations of established facts. In the process we seek to identify some of the wider implications for the use and potential abuse of economic expertise in highly charged political contexts, such as the EU referendum debate.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

22. The Unpredictable Course of Naval Innovation – The Guns of HMS Thunderer

Author:
Ben Lombardi
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In January 1879, a muzzle-loading gun aboard HMS Thunderer, one of the Royal Navy’s most powerful warships, exploded. A parliamentary investigation determined that the accident occurred because of human error brought about by a highly innovative, but complicated, loading mechanism. Given earlier unsatisfactory experience with early breech-loading guns, contemporary naval engagements and expectations of the future nature of conflict at sea, retention of muzzle-loaders seemed a reasonable course of action. Vast sums were, therefore, spent in ensuring that Britain’s navy had the biggest and most powerful of that type of ordnance. But the explosion and other advances in gun design meant that muzzle-loaders were a dead end, and the incident on Thunderer became the impetus for the Royal Navy to adopt breech-loaders. This incident shines light upon the thinking within the Royal Navy at the time regarding advanced guns. But it also underscores the uncertainty and unpredictability that is inevitably attached to rapid innovation by a large military institution such as the Royal Navy was in the late-19th century. This story is highly relevant to force development considerations today because in any era of continuous technological change, mistakes are inevitable and their expectation should be accommodated within planning.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

23. My British Exequatur, “By Her Majesty’s Command”

Author:
Jonathan B. Rickert
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In order to join the U.S. foreign service, applicants pass through a gauntlet of written and oral assessments, physical examinations, and security clearance. Once those steps are successfully completed, the Secretary of State sends to the President for approval a list of those to be commissioned as diplomatic and consular officers. The commission is what makes one officially a Foreign Service officer. It’s our only badge of membership, unaccompanied by the diplomatic uniform or other regalia used by some other countries to denote diplomatic status. When I sailed into the port of Southampton in the United Kingdom on the S.S. United States on October 26, 1965, as a newly minted and very junior U.S. diplomatic and consular officer, I was armed with my diplomatic passport and commission, issued by President Johnson and signed by Secretary of State Dean Rusk. Those signatures, of course, were printed on the form, but my name, title, the date, etc. had been entered, elegantly in cursive, apparently by hand. The document, on velum-like paper adorned with an impression seal of the United States, looked to me more like a fancy university diploma than anything else. However, it meant that I was a “real” diplomat and authorized to take on the responsibilities required by my career.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Memoir, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Britain and United States of America

24. Factsheet: Tommy Robinson

Author:
Tommy Robinson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tommy Robinson is a British anti-Muslim and anti-immigration activist. A co-founder of the racist English Defense League, Robinson believes Islam is a “disease” and Muslims are invading Europe. He has been connected to trans-national anti-Muslim activists and organizations, including PEGIDA. Robinson has had numerous criminal convictions and is currently serving time in jail.
Topic:
Islam, Far Right, Muslims, Tommy Robinson, and English Defense League (EDL)
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

25. Not For Patching? Public Opinion and the Commitment to ‘Build Back Better’

Author:
Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
This project, led by MEI Deputy Director Dr Karl Pike, examines the views of the British public on what rebuilding after the pandemic might mean. It offers some preliminary indications of what policy areas the public want to prioritise, and how the machinery of government has managed and performed during this crisis.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Crisis Management, Public Policy, Survey, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

26. The implications of a no-deal Brexit for the EU

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As the end of the transition period nears, the EU must prepare for a fundamentally different and more conflictual relationship with the UK. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be profound economic, political and geopolitical implications for the EU. While the EU as a whole might be better placed than the UK to absorb the economic shock of a no-deal, the fallout within the EU will be uneven, resulting in winners and losers. The asymmetrical impact and differential capacity and willingness of national governments to mitigate the shock could exacerbate regional disparities and unbalance the EU’s internal level playing field. As such, it might become more difficult to maintain the same level of EU unity post-no-deal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

27. Brexit and the British in Spain

Author:
Karen O'Reilly
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through UK in a Changing Europe Initiative (Grant Number ES/R000875/1). This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain

28. Brexit and the British in France

Author:
Michaela Benson
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative. This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and France

29. Morris Motors: How Oxford became a Motor City

Author:
David White, Jack Felton, and Christopher McKenna
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Centre for Global History
Abstract:
Oxford’s history is one of industry. One of Britain’s largest cities in the medieval and early modern period at a crucial crossing of the River Thames, the city remained a transport hub through the First Industrial Revolution. As the meeting point of the West Midlands’ canal network and the major river, Oxford facilitated water transport between the industrial heartlands and the capital. With the advent of the railways, Oxford’s position as a crossroads solidified. Later, Oxfordshire’s inland position and relatively flat geography would make it an ideal location for airbases in wartime. Road traffic, first horse-drawn and later horseless, also passed through Oxford as major roads led to and from the city. But Oxford is a home to vehicle manufacture not just a transport hub. Oxford is the UK’s motor city. These days the majority of Formula 1 teams have their headquarters in Oxfordshire, while BMW’s Mini plant is situated in the Cowley area of Oxford on the site of the old Morris Motors factory.
Topic:
Economics, History, Capitalism, Transportation, Industry, and Cars
Political Geography:
Britain and UK

30. The Geopolitics of Post-Brexit Britain

Author:
Geoffrey Sloan
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
This essay draws on the author’s previous work, specifically: The Geopolitics of Anglo-Irish Relations in the 20th Century. The greatest failure of the European referendum campaign in 2016, which can be attributed to both sides, was the inability to articulate an understanding of Britain’s geopolitical relationship to Europe. By geopolitics, I do not mean its current usage: interpreted merely as a synonym for international strategic rivalry. I refer, instead, to classical geopolitics, which is a confluence of three subjects: geography, history, and strategy. It draws attention to certain geographical patterns of political history. It fuses spatial relationships and historical causation. It can produce explanations that suggest the contemporary and future political relevance of various geographical configurations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe