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731. Brazil Alert: President Lula

Author:
William Perry
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
100 days have now passed since Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva donned Brazil's presidential sash on January 1, 2003. Perhaps use of this traditional U.S. benchmark, even for preliminary judgments, is a bit unfair, as the Brazilian political calendar with Carnival holidays off, precludes Congress from really beginning to function until early March. Nevertheless, the past three months have been instructive in terms of gauging the problems and prospects of the new Workers' Party (PT) government.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

732. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?

Author:
Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

733. Is Brazil Next?

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

734. Ámbito y Papel de los Especialistas en las Reformas en los Sistemas de Salud: Los Casos de Brasil y México

Author:
Raquel Abrantes Pêgo and Célia Almeida
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to consider the role played by the community of public health experts in the contemporary health sector reform process. It discusses the issue based on the case of Brazil and Mexico, because, as specialists, public health researchers in both countries have directed their participation to influencing the conflict over the reorientation of health policy in their respective countries. One of their approaches has consisted in developing a new cognitive framework that underpins technical health sector reform projects understood as policy proposals with technical content. Our purpose is to show that these experts manage to influence the national debate over health sector reform when the technical and scientific discussion leaves the academic sphere and goes to the realm of social and political debate. In our opinion, this occurs because this technical and scientific knowledge has been held out, independently of its intrinsic value, as a political and ideological alternative platform for sustaining a health sector reform proposal which, once transformed into a policy project, has served to aggregate certain political and social forces and not others. The study sets out each case separately, in each showing first the emergence of a new body of thinking in the field of public health (Collective Health in Brazil and New Public Health in Mexico). It then demonstrates how these groups of experts have articulated and interacted with specific political and social forces within their respective societies, and analyses how they have become a political stream within health institutions in the struggle to control the sector's future.
Topic:
Development and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America, North America, and Mexico

735. Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
John Cope and Laurita Denny
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have failed.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Caribbean, and Chile

736. Inequalities in the Light of Globalization

Author:
Denis Goulet
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Shortly before his death last year (2001) the Brazilian geographer and philosopher Milton Santos published a book entitled For Another Globalization. The literary scholar and sociologist António Cândido praised him as one “in whose writings scientific rigor was never an obstacle to a developed social conscience.” And although Santos viewed globalization as a “perverse phenomenon” he strove “to show that it is possible to carry it out differently.” The Santos book is but one among many works now issuing from Brazil and calling for a qualitatively different kind of globalization. At the World Social Forum II organized around the theme “Another World is Possible” held in Porto Alegre, Brazil (31 January – 5 February, 2002), thousands of voices from 135 countries likewise launched appeals for Another Globalization. These were the voices of political and church leaders; of NGO's working on diverse fronts (human rights, economic justice, debt relief, environmental protection, gender equality, democratic governance, the Tobin tax, citizen participation in public decision-making, peace, struggles against social exclusion); of rural and urban labor unions; of organizations of the landless and the homeless. Across wide differences in ideology, substantive positions and emphasis, participants at Porto Alegre II nonetheless proclaimed common value allegiances to equity and social justice over maximum economic growth, to participatory decision-making over secretive elite institutional planning, to fair over free trade, to active protection of cultural diversity over uniform economic strategies, to re-empowerment of national states as decisive agents of development over subordination to international corporations or financial agencies. They counterposed these values to their opposites, which they attributed to the elite Davos World Economic Forum, held in New York this year in support of that battered city – maximum economic growth, unregulated capital mobility, free trade, privatization, and a uniform reliance on competitive markets to serve as the motor force of national development everywhere.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
New York and Brazil

737. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900

Author:
Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

738. The Effectiveness of Special Interventions in Latin American Public Primary Schools

Author:
Joan B. Anderson
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In pursuit of improved quality and more equity in education, public primary schools in Latin America have utilized several compensatory educational policies that include special interventions such as food aid programs, distribution of free textbooks, classroom libraries, in-service teacher training, extra classes and extra school sessions, tutors and mentors, and scholarships. Using data on children and schools in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, this paper presents the results of cross-country, empirical estimates of the effects of these interventions on language and math achievement and on the likelihood of promotion, both at the school level and at the level of individual children. Language and math achievement was measured by scores on UNESCO-developed language and math examinations administered to each of the 2,048 children in the sample. In addition, the paper addresses whether a particular intervention is equally effective in poor and non-poor environments and whether these compensatory interventions in fact target those who need them most. Empirical findings suggest that the most effective programs are classroom libraries, distribution of textbooks, distribution of food, and teacher training. For programs to be compensatory, the research indicates that better targeting of scarce resources toward low-income schools and children is needed
Topic:
Development, Education, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

739. Economic Development and Asymmetries in MERCOSUR: The Prospects of a MERCOSUR Regional Development Fund

Author:
Fernando Masi and Amaury Hoste
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The signature of the Treaty of Asunción on March 26, 1991, by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay initiated the creation of a common market called the Mercado Común del Sur (Southern Common Market – MERCOSUR). The signatory governments hoped that the economic growth subsequent to the creation of this organization would contribute to a better convergence among them.
Topic:
Development and International Organization
Political Geography:
Brazil and Argentina

740. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis

Author:
Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile