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31. Regime Change, Democracy, and Growth

Author:
Caroline Freund and Mélise Jaud
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The empirical literature on the relationship between democracy and growth has yielded conflicting results. Cross-country studies have failed to identify a significant impact of democracy on growth, while within-country studies have found a strong positive effect of the transition to democracy on growth. We reconcile the conflicting evidence by showing that the positive effect of democratic transitions results from regime change as opposed to democratization. We identify over 100 transitions in the last half-century with various outcomes: to and from democracy, some partial, and some failed. The variety of experiences allows us to compare the growth outcome of democratic transitions with that of other transitions rather than with a no-transition counterfactual. Conditioning on regime change filters out selection effects and shows that transition to democracy yields no growth dividend compared to other types of regime change. We also show that countries that democratize slowly do not gain from regime change. These results suggest that the growth dividend from political transition results from swift regime change rather than from democratization.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Brazil

32. The BRICS Development Bank: Why the world's newest global bank must adopt a pro-poor agenda

Author:
Lysa John
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In July 2014, a new multilateral and Southern-led development bank is expected to be launched by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – better known as the BRICS. The BRICS Development Bank will provide a fresh source of finance for developing and emerging economies to meet their development needs. Little has been made public regarding the proposed Bank's core mandate or activities but while governments negotiate the technicalities of the Bank, it is critical that they also provide a solid vision of the principles, priorities and objectives on which the Bank's activities and operations will be premised. This policy brief recommends that these include commitments to: ending extreme poverty and inequality, with a special focus on gender equity and women's rights; aligning with environmental and social safeguards and establishing mechanisms for information sharing, accountability and redress; leadership on the sustainable development agenda; the creation of mechanisms for public consultation and debate; and the adoption a truly democratic governance structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

33. Chinese global investment growth pauses

Author:
Derek M. Scissors
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Chinese foreign investment declined through mid-2014 for the first time since the financial crisis. By sector, energy draws the most investment, but a slump in energy spending means that metals and real estate have been more prominent so far in 2014. The United States has received the most Chinese investment since 2005, followed by Australia, Canada, and Brazil. China invests first in large, resource-rich nations but has also diversified by spending more than $200 billion elsewhere. Chinese investment benefits both China and the recipient nation, but host countries must consider thorny issues like Chinese cyberespionage and subsidies.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Australia

34. Invisible legacies: Brazil's and South Korea's shift from ISI towards export strategies under authoritarian rule

Author:
Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:
Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:
Between the 1960s and the 1970s, Brazil and South Korea adopted similar strategies of development under authoritarian rule: an import substitution industrialisation (ISI) programme later replaced by export strategies (ES), namely, export promotion (EP) in Brazil and export-led growth (EG) in Korea. However, whereas Korea was successful, Brazil began the 1980s facing socio-economic crisis because of imbalances in external accounts. Through the analysis of institutions, organisations, and economic indicators, I conclude that the social-political structure (defined as the institutions and organisations within the economic, political, and social levels) of each nation shaped differently the opportunities given by changes in the organisation of the domestic economy and international contexts between 1945 and 1985. The social-political institutions, which last longer than organisations, come mainly from Portuguese (in the case of Brazil) and Japanese (in the case of South Korea) colonisation. Therefore, the impact of historical junctures, such as economic transformations influenced by changes at the international level, might be restricted to organisations at the domestic level as institutions related to pre-industrial periods persist and constrain the reach of modernisation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Korea, Brazil, and Korea

35. Housing at the Base of the Pyramid in Brazil

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This report is based on the themes and messages discussed during the Business Opportunities in Housing for the Base of the Pyramid event held in São Paulo, Brazil on 2 September 2013. The event brought together between key actors developing housing solutions for low-income communities in Brazil. More than 70 members from the United Nations Development Programme in Brazil, city government, civil society, real estate developers, private-sector companies and investors attended this invite-only event, a collaborative effort between Business Call to Action (BCtA) and Aspen Network of Development Entrepreneurs (ANDE) Brazil Chapter which enabled participating stakeholders to discuss challenges and solutions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

36. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This semiannual review finds that most of the major international currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, and Chinese renminbi, remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The new estimates find this result despite numerous significant exchange rate movements associated with increased volatility in international financial markets at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, and despite a major reduction in the price of oil. The principal cases of exchange rate misalignment continue to be the undervalued currencies of Singapore, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent Sweden and Switzerland, and the overvalued currencies of Turkey, New Zealand, South Africa, and to a lesser extent Australia and Brazil. Even so, the medium-term current account deficit for the United States is already at the outer limit in the FEERs methodology (3 percent of GDP), and if the combination of intensified quantitative easing in Japan and the euro area with the end to quantitative easing in the United States were to cause sizable further appreciation of the dollar, an excessive US imbalance could begin to emerge.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Japan, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and New Zealand

37. Hooray for Global Justice? Emerging Democracies in a Multipolar World

Author:
Julian Culp and Johannes Plagemann
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Rising powers are fundamentally shifting the relations of power in the global economic and political landscape. International political theory, however, has so far failed to evaluate this nascent multipolarity. This article fills this lacuna by synthesizing empirical and normative modes of inquiry. It examines the transformation of sovereignty exercised by emerging democracies and shows that – in stark contrast to emerging democracies' foreign policy rhetoric – the "softening" of sovereignty has become the norm. The present paper assesses this softening of sovereignty on the basis of a "democratic-internationalist" conception of global justice. This conception holds that global justice demands the establishment of reasonably democratic transnational relations that enable people themselves to determine what else justice requires. Because we find that the exercise of soft sovereignty by emerging democracies contributes to the realization of reasonably democratic transnational relations, we conclude that this nascent multipolarity ought to be welcomed from the democratic-internationalist view of global justice.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Brazil

38. The West must allow a power shift in international organizations

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard and Robert Hunter Wade
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
More than three years after the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s governing body agreed to reform the organization's governance so as to better reflect the increasing economic weight of dynamic emerging market economies in the world economy, only microscopic changes have been made. Emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) have become increasingly frustrated with Western states for clinging to their inherited power, in the IMF and other important international economic governance organizations. The emerging cooperation among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) – as seen in the advanced-stage negotiations to establish a Development Bank and a Contingent Reserve Arrangement – sends a “wake up and smell the coffee” call to the West, and the latter will carry a heavy responsibility for eroding global multilateral governance if it continues to drag its heels on the needed adjustments.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

39. How to help the poor in a rich man's world

Author:
Jon Lidén
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Donors need to be smarter as nouveau riche states leave masses trapped by poverty gap
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, and Mexico

40. Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook 2013

Author:
Hans Mouritzen (ed) and Nanna Hvidt (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This year's volume presents the official outline of Denmark's foreign policy in 2012 by Claus Grube, Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. Besides that Ravinder Kaur contributes with the first academic inquiry into the causes of the Danish-Indian diplomatic deadlock in the extradition case concerning Niels Holck (the prime accused in the Purulia arms drop case). Mette Skak addresses the role of the emerging BRICS powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Danish foreign policy and offers her policy recommendations. Hans Branner shifts to a diachronic perspective. In his article about Denmark 'between Venus and Mars' he stresses elements of continuity in Danish foreign policy history; activism is not solely a post-Cold War phenomenon. Derek Beach turns to the scene of the current European economic crisis, analysing and interpreting the Fiscal Compact agreed during the Danish EU Presidency.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Denmark