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21. Accession to the Customs Union: Shaping the strategy for Azerbaijan

Author:
Ziya Alili, Tural Abbasov, David N. Chang, Max Hoyt, and Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the implications of the potential accession of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. The qualitative approach employs stakeholder and sectorial analysis, while quantitative methodologies include Hedonic Estimation and Linear Regression Models. The stakeholder analysis discusses the implications of accession for different interested parties, namely businesses, citizens and international partners of Azerbaijan. The sectorial analysis assesses the varied probable impact of accession on different economic sectors. The quantitative methods are designed to answer the question following question: How much would the Azerbaijani economy benefit if it had joined the Customs Union when it was established in 2010? Although CESD finds a number of quantitative benefits to accession (for example, an additional two to five percent growth in GDP), qualitative analysis reveals disadvantages that were not captured by quantitative methodologies and helps provide a more comprehensive picture that disfavors accession, namely the long-term disadvantage of ceding independence vis-à-vis Azerbaijan’s energy policy. Accordingly, the Center for Economic and Social Development strongly recommends against accession. However, considering economic, social and political pressures, Azerbaijan may be persuaded to accede. In this scenario, CESD would recommend learning from the experience of the UK while acceding to the European Union and attaining several key exemptions from the rules and regulations of the Customs Union.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Regional Integration, and Customs
Political Geography:
Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Belarus

22. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Belarus

Author:
Alaksei Kazlou and Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

23. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2012 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Hélène Clément-Pitiot, Matthieu Combe, Vitaly Denysyuk, and Raphaël Jozan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard, 2012.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

24. The Eastern Partnership and Estonia: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Merle Maigre and Kaarel Kaas
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
ICDS researchers Kaarel Kaas and Merle Maigre have completed a Policy Brief with recommendations and suggestions for Estonia’s engagement with the EU’s Eastern Partnership. The European Union’s Eastern Partnership establishes a new political instrument for the promotion of democracy and economic reforms in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. Since the war in Georgia in August 2008 and the gas crisis in the winter of 2008/2009, it has become clear that the developments in Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the South Caucasus have a direct impact on the security of the EU and Estonia, as well. It is, therefore, in the interests of Estonia to provide maximum support for our eastern partners in their reform efforts and convergence with the EU.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia, South Caucasus, and Belarus