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1. Buckles and Holes in China’s Belt and Road – A Case Study of Belarus and Serbia

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The international system is undergoing profound changes and one of the main ones is the growth of China’s global influence, which is gradually turning into a source of influence comparable to the United States. This process is accompanied by the growth of China’s political and economic presence in different regions of the world. Europe is no exception, but this process varies greatly in different countries, with some countries only cautiously developing ties with China while others seek to expand them as much as possible. This raises the question of the reasons for such differences, as well as the consequences of active development of China’s ties for political and economic development. In this regard, it seems interesting to compare the most “pro-Chinese” countries in Europe, namely Belarus, which has the closest contacts with China among countries of Eastern Europe and Serbia, and occupies a similar position in the Balkans. The analysis shows that for both countries, China is, first of all, a political and economic alternative to the EU and the US, and in the case of Belarus, also to Russia. Such cooperation expands the space for manoeuvre, but usually does not lead to the solution of the strategic goals – advanced economic development, political resilience, sustainable cooperation with the main (crucial) partners.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and International System
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

2. The Belarusian Revolution of 2020: Afterword

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Belarusian Revolution challenged the Lukashenka regime but did not bring it down. It is, however, clear that the structural factors behind the revolution have been sustained. The West should increase efforts to achieve political and economic transformation in the country.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Revolution, and State Building
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

3. China-Belarus Cooperation Under “Belt and Road Initiative”

Author:
Weihong Xu
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
As the programmatic strategy of China’s economic reopening, “Belt and Road Initiative" has gained more and more recognition from abroad. Belarus, as it sits at the core of the New Silk Road Economy Zone, is also coming to the stage. Belarus has a good geographic location and advantageous natural conditions, but the difficulty of seeking Western assistance in developing its real economy has been constantly rising after Brexit, isolationist Trump, and the rising of anti-globalism in Europe. Consequently, Belarus has been responding positively to China’s BRI. Especially in the cooperation of production capacity, Belarus industries are sincerely looking at China, as China is the only great economy that transcends from planned economy to market economy.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, and Belarus

4. Towards a happy twentieth anniversary? Future thinking on the Eastern Partnership’s 3Ds: dilemmas, design and deliverables

Author:
Andriy Tyushka
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
The Eastern Partnership’s tenth-anniversary celebration in May 2019 by the European Union and its Eastern neighbors was anything but grandiose and festive. Internal EU developments, the overall political dynamics in the region and the indeterminacies of the Eastern Partnership project were the main cause. As the EU’s flagship policy initiative towards its Eastern European neighborhood is currently undergoing auditing and revision, this article seeks to cast a look back at how the Eastern Partnership has functioned over the past decade – and to think forward to its future(s) with regard to design and deliverables in face of the enduring and imminent policy dilemmas in this highly contested region.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

5. Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus

Author:
Robert Nalbandov
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public administration, this monograph extends the epistemological frameworks of the democratization school to the phenomenon of political culture. Successes and failures of the democratic institutionalization processes in these countries largely depend on the ways their institutional actors reacted to internal and external disturbances of their domestic political, econmic, and cultural environments. While Georgia's political culture revealed the highest degree of flexibility in accepting the externally-proposed institutional frameworks and practices, the bifurcate political culture in Ukraine impeded its democratic institutionalization, while the rigid political culture in Belarus completely stalled the process of institutional transformations.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Asia, Georgia, and Belarus

6. Narrow Focus, Broad Vision: A Strategic View of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Emmet Tuohy and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. Unfortunately, in the last four years these high expectations have simply not been met. While there have been elements of success, the record of the EP has also demonstrated the limits of the EU’s foreign policy influence […] Accordingly, the upcoming Vilnius summit—marking the fourth anniversary of the establishment of the EP—will be an opportunity for the EU to take stock and reevaluate not only its perception of the partnership states, but also its broader foreign policy objectives and the instruments through which it seeks to accomplish them. It has been argued that the key reason for supporting the Eastern Partnership is because it enables the EU to spread its values. Yet, this is precisely the thing that the European Union cannot (and should not) be doing at this point in time. […] Yet, even while the EU may not have the capacity to create a wide space for the European values of consensus and liberal democracy stretching across the Eurasian landmass from Portugal to the Pacific, it can and does have the ability to deepen cooperation with its Eastern partners on areas that support its interest. In this paper, we concentrate on the most important such dimension: energy security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

7. Accession to the Customs Union: Shaping the strategy for Azerbaijan

Author:
Ziya Alili, Tural Abbasov, David N. Chang, Max Hoyt, and Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the implications of the potential accession of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. The qualitative approach employs stakeholder and sectorial analysis, while quantitative methodologies include Hedonic Estimation and Linear Regression Models. The stakeholder analysis discusses the implications of accession for different interested parties, namely businesses, citizens and international partners of Azerbaijan. The sectorial analysis assesses the varied probable impact of accession on different economic sectors. The quantitative methods are designed to answer the question following question: How much would the Azerbaijani economy benefit if it had joined the Customs Union when it was established in 2010? Although CESD finds a number of quantitative benefits to accession (for example, an additional two to five percent growth in GDP), qualitative analysis reveals disadvantages that were not captured by quantitative methodologies and helps provide a more comprehensive picture that disfavors accession, namely the long-term disadvantage of ceding independence vis-à-vis Azerbaijan’s energy policy. Accordingly, the Center for Economic and Social Development strongly recommends against accession. However, considering economic, social and political pressures, Azerbaijan may be persuaded to accede. In this scenario, CESD would recommend learning from the experience of the UK while acceding to the European Union and attaining several key exemptions from the rules and regulations of the Customs Union.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Regional Integration, and Customs
Political Geography:
Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Belarus

8. Monitoring Country Progress in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Robyn Murphy and Ron Sprout
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
This paper presents an abridged version of USAID/E's 10th edition of its annual report which monitors country progress in the twenty-nine transition country region. The salient findings include: (1) 2005 progress in economic reforms in the transition region was comparable to the good pace of economic reforms in recent years. (2) 2005 data show a continuation of the growing democratization gap between CEE and Eurasia that has been evident since the early transition years. (3) The twenty nine transition countries generally fall into four fairly distinct reform groups: (a) Northern Tier CEE; (b) Southern Tier CEE; (c) Eurasian reformers; and (d) Eurasian non-reformers (Turkmenistan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan). (4) Economic growth rates in the region continue to exceed global norms, and within Eastern Europe and Eurasia, continue to be highest in Eurasia in large part due to favorable primary product trends. (5) Many social indicators continue to recover, apparently at least partly in response to improving economic conditions, including falling poverty and infant mortality rates, and rising real wages and education enrollment rates. (6) Yet many countries are (still) experiencing increasing unemployment rates and the life expectancy gap between CEE and Eurasia continues to grow. (7) And some of the transition countries have among the highest crude death rates worldwide along with among the lowest fertility rates (and birth rates) worldwide.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Health
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus