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81. Developments in the Security Environment of the Baltic Sea Region up to 2020

Author:
Riina Kaljurand, Karlis Neretnieks, Bo Ljung, and Julian Tupay
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
A research team led by the International Centre for Defence Studies (ICDS) was asked by the Foreign Policy Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) to undertake research on the topic of ‘Developments in the Security Environment of the Nordic and Baltic Sea Region up to 2020’. A research team led by the International Centre for Defence Studies (ICDS) was asked by the Foreign Policy Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) to undertake research on the topic of ‘Developments in the Security Environment of the Nordic and Baltic Sea Region up to 2020’. The purpose of the research project was to evaluate the security situation in the Baltic Sea region in a 10-year perspective; to provide an overview of the key security threats in the region; and to define possible areas for enhanced cooperation between the Baltic Sea countries. Research was conducted by a research team, which included the following members: Riina Kaljurand, a researcher at ICDS, acting as project manager; Julian Tupay, a junior researcher at ICDS; Karlis Neretnieks, Major General (ret.) conducting research on Nordic and Baltic security for the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences; and Bo Ljung, former head of the Northern Security and Stability project at FOI (Swedish Defence Research Agency).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Nordic Nations, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

82. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Author:
Rob Zaagman
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
Topic:
Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States