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191. Coming Soon to a Country Near You: Kosova Sovereignty

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Why does the United States support Kosovo's independence, even putting at risk its relations not only with Serbia but also with Russia? And how does Washington plan to contain the consequences? It is often assumed that Washington's position is based on a sense of moral obligation, deriving not only from the mistreatment of Albanians under the Milosevic regime but also from American promises since. While this fact or unquestionably weighs on the side of the Kosovars, it is not I think decisive. Understanding Washington's support for Kosovo's independence requires an analysis of the consequences of further delay as well as the consequences of moving ahead, even in the absence of a UN Security Council resolution.
Topic:
Government and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, and Balkans

192. Civilians Will Make the Difference in Iraq

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
As vice president for peace and stability operations at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Daniel Serwer has for three years supervised a Congressionally-funded peacebuilding effort in Iraq, after a decade spent on Balkans peacebuilding efforts both at the State Department and USIP. This USIPeace Briefing, prepared as testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in early January 2007, presents his personal views, not those of the Institute, which does not take positions on specific policies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Balkans

193. Kosovo: What Can Go Wrong?

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
At the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war almost eight years ago, the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo was removed from Serbia's governance and placed temporarily under a United Nations protectorate, administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Last summer, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari was tasked by the Security Council with resolving the question of Kosovo's future status, with support from U.S. and European Union envoys (Frank Wisner and Stefan Lehne respectively). Ahtisaari's effort is now drawing to a close. He has delivered to both Pristina and Belgrade a plan that explicitly allows a great deal of protection for Serbs and their religious monuments in Kosovo but implicitly ends Belgrade's sovereignty. His plan opens the prospect of a sovereign and independent Kosovo under continuing international supervision. It is anticipated that Ahtisaari will take his plan, with some revisions, to the UN Security Council this month. This USIPeace Briefing discusses potential drivers of conflict in Kosovo during the status decision and in the period thereafter. These drivers of conflict arise from the international community, the Kosovo Albanians, Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs. They have the potential not only to make Kosovo dysfunctional but also to destabilize the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

194. Is Serbia Moving Toward Europe?

Author:
Yll Bajraktari and Greg Maly
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in October 2000, Serbia has struggled to find its way. Is the country shifting toward the West or East? What will happen with Kosovo? Does Serbia need Europe? Does Europe need Serbia? These issues were discussed at a May 7, 2007 event at USIP featuring James Lyon, special Balkans advisor for the International Crisis Group; Boris Stefanovic, deputy chief of mission at the Embassy of Serbia; and Martin Sletzinger, director of East European Studies at the Wilson Center for Scholars. Daniel Serwer, vice president for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations at USIP, moderated the discussion. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the main views expressed by the panelists and participants. It does not represent the views of USIP, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Mongolia, Kosovo, and Balkans

195. Kosovo: Breaking the Deadlock

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Kosovo was left at the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war in 1999 in limbo. It is still there, despite Security Council Resolution 1244, which foresaw a process for deciding its status. That process has occurred, but because of a threatened Russian veto, the Security Council failed to approve the plan prepared under the leadership of former Finnish President Marti Ahtisaari, which provides for Kosovo's independence under international supervision with extensive protection for its Serb population. The UN Secretary General invited the Contact Group—France, Germany, Italy, Russia, the UK and the U.S.—to pursue further, direct negotiations between Pristina and Belgrade, but with little prospect of movement on either side. Belgrade continues to insist on maintenance of its sovereignty over Kosovo, and Pristina continues to insist on independence. On December 10, the Contact Group will report to the UN Secretary General, who in turn will report to the Security Council (UNSC). A small group of experts with long Balkans experience met at USIP September 5 to discuss the situation and suggest ways forward. Others (consulted electronically) join in associating their names with this paper. Listed at the end, all believe that Kosovo's independence must happen without further delay, in order to prevent regional instability. This USIPeace Briefing does not reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, France, Kosovo, Germany, and Balkans

196. Željko Komšić, Presidency Chairman of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Presidency Chairman, Željko Komšić, delivers a keynote address and participates in a question and answer session moderated by Catharine Nepomnyashchy, Director of the Harriman Institute. This event is co-sponsored by the Harriman Institute.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

197. A Synergy for Black Sea Regional Cooperation: Guidelines for an EU Initiative

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On 17 July 2006, Fabrizio Tassinari, Assistant Professor at the University of Copenhagen and visiting Research Fellow at CEPS, presented his study entitled \'A Synergy for Black Sea Regional Cooperation: Guidelines for an EU Initiative\', financed by the Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

198. Bulgaria and Romania's Accession to the EU:Postponement, Safeguards and the Rule of Law

Author:
Gergana Noutcheva
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On the day before the European Commission's decision on the fitness of Bulgaria and Romania to become EU members on 1 January 2007 (due to be delivered 16 May 2006), it is becoming increasingly evident that the EU has fallen into its own 'rhetorical trap' from which there is no easy way out. Most EU officials and politicians would agree that the governance standards in the two Balkan candidates are not up to EU level yet, but everyone knows that there is not much the EU can do about it at this point.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Balkans, and Romania

199. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe

Author:
David Kernohan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

200. Post Conflict Rehabilitation: Lessons from South East Europe and Strategic Consequences for the Euro-Atlantic Community

Author:
Gustav E. Gustenau, Jean-Jacques de Dardel, and Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
The purposeful efforts to explain and define the changes of the Cold War system of international relations continue for a second decade. Certain referent studies stimulate the thinking on these topics, including in the post-9/11 period. Understanding better the transformation of the international system would provide us with a better view on the changes in its regulative sub-system, including the international legal component of the latter.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, NATO, Development, Human Rights, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans