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1. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

2. The South Caucasus and Great Power Confrontation: Is There a Silver Lining on the Horizon?

Author:
Gulshan Pashayeva
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The onset of the present stage in the conflict over Ukraine in February 2022 further heightened an already tense geopolitical standoff. Although this war has now entered into its third year, there is no clear sign that a peaceful settlement could be within reach. Rather, each passing day makes the situation more complicated and drags both sides towards a dead end in which neither one nor the other of the two direct belligerents is likely to emerge better off than each was before the full-scale fighting began again in earnest. Today, this war in which two major geopolitical actors—the West and Russia—have become trapped is also having an impact on other regions around the globe. The European Union is one, obviously: its ambitions to achieve geopolitical autonomy (at least within the West, as a distinct pole), for instance, have been set back, and Brussels has had to scramble mightily to reconfigure the terms of its energy security. Another is the Silk Road region in general, and the South Caucasus in particular. This essay will examine the latest developments in this latter area through an inquiry into whether (and how) the evolving geopolitical rivalry between the West and Russia affects that part of the world. It will culminate with a consideration of whether there is any silver lining that could result from this situation, whereby the South Caucasus could become a politically and economically united region in the time ahead.
Topic:
Power Politics, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Balkans, Georgia, and South Caucasus

3. The rocky road to EU accession for Western Balkan countries: obstacles and lessons from the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Armin Steinbach
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The Western Balkan countries and the countries of the Eastern Partnership are moving towards European Union accession at different speeds. We explore whether and how the variable speed towards EU accession can be traced to different legal regimes governing European integration: Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAA) for the Western Balkan countries, and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTA) for the countries of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). We find that DCFTAs apply more lenient conditionality to intra-regional cooperation. They subject non-tariff barriers to a more explicit regime than the Western Balkan SAAs. The DCFTAs also offer a more rigid and comprehensive approach to the approximation of laws than the SAAs, and the DCFTAs are more inclusive with regard to the role of civil society. However, there is no indication that the differences in legal governance have translated into stronger economic performance in the EaP countries or greater integration with the EU, compared to the Western Balkans. The Western Balkan countries remain significantly more integrated than the EaP countries with the EU in trade terms, while convergence with the EU has been stagnating both for the Western Balkan and the EaP countries. Economic shortcomings in the Western Balkan still need to be addressed. Conditionality attached to both integration into the EU single market and EU funding should be nuanced; the eradication of non-tariff barriers should be prioritised both inter-regionally and intra-regionally between Western Balkan countries; the need for stronger EU investment in the region is reinforced by geopolitical concerns about Chinese investments coming without EU-type conditionality attached; and governance should give a stronger role to civil society. In order to address the shortcomings in SAAs, a pragmatic solution is to use the existing governance framework under the SAAs.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, and Eastern Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

4. Towards an EU geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, asking how the EU can pursue a geopolitical EU enlargement approach while maintaining its transformative objectives. The brief first provides a concise assessment of the instruments that the EU employs to strengthen democratic resilience and to counter Russian influence in the three countries. We argue that the EU has a comprehensive and effective range of instruments available, even if Russia has maintained its ability to project especially ‘soft’ power. However, when looking at the overall EU political approach towards these countries, we observe negative effects of the manner in which geopolitical imperatives for enhanced engagement are currently converted into strategy and discourse. More specifically, an insufficiently overarching firm and confident EU political approach towards the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of the EU’s impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by becoming more confident and upfront, sticking to its values and making use of negative conditionality besides offering positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms towards the Western Balkans.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

5. Russian influence on the European Integration process of the Western Balkan countries: A comparative analysis

Author:
Alfred Marleku and Dafina Aliu
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article explores the correlation between Russian influence and the European Union (EU) integration process in the Western Balkans. The focus is on analyzing the impact of Russian influence expressed through political, economic and cultural means on the region’s integration into the EU. The article argues that the Russian foreign policy toolkit inhibits the EU accession process for the six countries of the Western Balkans, as it interferes with the internal functioning of these countries, which, in turn, affects their ability to fulfill EU requirements. Using a comparative case approach this study has found evidence that Russian cultural, political and financial support negatively affects the Western Balkans’ European integration process, hindering progress towards accession. Additionally, the findings support the argument that Western Balkans countries with Slavic populations are more susceptible to Russian influence. The article highlights the significant impact of Russia on the EU integration process in the Western Balkans and underscores the need for EU policymakers to address this issue to ensure a smooth and successful accession process for the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

6. An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Eu’s Hampered Transformative Power in the Western Balkans

Author:
Doris Malaj and Elena Polo
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The objectives of this paper were to assess the role of the EU in the countries willing to join and committed to the negotiation processes (with a particular focus on the WB region) and to explore further and explain the dynamics of the EU’s crucial role onto the political performance, summarizing internal and external country and region-based developments. For this purpose, the deployed methodology consists of conducting a comparative quantitative analysis, comparing evidence from selected countries and from selected enlargement waves. The main results of the analysis confirmed that the EU’s role in ensuring democratic performances at the country/region level is seriously weakened over time and that it is therefore essential that the EU, especially in uncertain times, rethink and revitalize its democracy-promoting mechanisms to rebuild and re-test itself as a transformative power.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Democratic Performance, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

7. In support of a new approach with the Western Balkans: Staged accession with a Pierre MIREL consolidation phase

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In his “Strasbourg Speech” to the European Parliament on 9 May 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron put forward the idea of a European Political Community, to organise Europe from a broader political perspective than the European Union. He was targeting the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. He nonetheless created a stir in the Western Balkans, even though he made it clear in his press conference that "for the Balkans, the path is already mapped out", by which he meant membership. This concern is understandable given the European perspective they were offered twenty years ago at the European Council of Thessaloniki on 21 June 2003, and that many voices are now being raised in favour of granting the new candidates to the East this formal membership status, or even of opening negotiations already. The European Council of 23-24 June will be important for two reasons: what is the European future of the three new candidates? Will Bulgaria lift its veto on the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and Northern Macedonia? Maintaining it would further weaken the credibility of the European Union at a time when China and Russia are making their ambitions clear.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, and European Council
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

8. Citizens' Perceptions on Kosovo's EU Integration Perspective and Regional and International Cooperation

Author:
Dea Fetiu and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This Western Balkans Security Barometer report examines the perceptions of Kosovo citizens about Kosovo's EU integration process, and the regional and international cooperation. This report consists of two sections. The first section analyzes the public perceptions towards the EU integration, Kosovo’s progress in fulfilling the EU membership criteria, the bilateral relations, and the influence of EU countries towards Kosovo, and an assessment of the EU as a mediator in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. The second section addresses regional cooperation within the Western Balkans countries, the bilateral relations, and the influence of these countries towards Kosovo. The analysis of this report is based on the results of the survey through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents throughout Kosovo, in September, 2021.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

9. It’s the EU, Not Western Balkan Enlargement

Author:
Christine Hübner, Jan Eichhorn, Luuk Molthof, and Srđan Cvijić
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
France is one of the European countries with the highest rates of popular disapproval of countries in the Western Balkans joining the European Union. What is this disapproval based on, and how important is the issue of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans for people in France? Using a combination of 2020 survey data representative of the adult French population and in-depth focus groups with French voters, this report offers a comprehensive insight into the views of the French on whether or not the countries of the Western Balkans should join the European Union.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Balkans

10. EU-Western Balkans Summit –The Morning After

Author:
Jana Juzová, Alexandra Ilková, and Ondřej Pešek
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our Jana Juzová, Alexandra Ilková, and Ondřej Pešek collaborated on the report of EU-Western Balkans Summit and its consequences. The conference took place in Carolinum on November 5, 2021. The speakers discussed relations between the European Union and Western Balkans and ways how to get the EU enlargement agenda back on track from the state of a deep crisis.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Conference
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans