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1. 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Brief Independent Review

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
he Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan presented the draft of the 2020 State Budget. According to the document, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Azerbaijan is expected to decline by 2020. The draft State Budget takes the expected cost per barrel in 2020 as US $55. Despite the fact that it is US $5 less than the previous year’s price, it doesn’t fully ensure related risks. Thus, CESD suggests to take US $50 per barrel for the state budget next year.
Topic:
Oil, Budget, GDP, and Finance
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

2. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2017: the year in politics

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, David Cadier, Isabelle Facon, Clémentine Fauconnier, Marie-Hélène Mandrillon, Anaïs Marin, Dominique Menu, and Ioulia Shukan
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Global Markets, Finance, Europeanization, Memory, and Borders
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, and European Union

3. Assessment on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Azerbaijan: 2017 Outlook

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The implementation of fixed exchange rate regime for 20 years (1994-2014) resulted in a formation of an insecure currency position for all interest groups, including the government and business. Although the pressures on manat have commenced to increase since the second half of 2014, the Central Bank and the government failed in comprehending the process. That is why, promising statements have been made to the general public. But the following events proved the underlying problem more severe and the implemented monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies ineffective in the long-term. Business, citizens, as well as state-owned enterprises faced serious financial losses. The country experienced serious threats with regard to its financial sustainability.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

4. Macroeconomic Forecasts for Azerbaijan in 2017: Independent View

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Without a doubt, 2016 is considered as one of the painful years for the economy of the country. That is to say, the economy of the country encountered nearly 4.0 % decline [during January-November 2016 GDP fell by 3.9% compared with the previous year, SSCRA1], the depreciation of national currency continued, as a result, manat lost its value by 12.5% during the year. The depreciation of national currency reached 57% from January, 2015 until December, 2016. Inflation rate increased to 12.1%, hitting a two-digit level first time since 2008 and consequently, real income of population shrank by 3.2%. The tight monetary and credit policies of the government led to weakening economic activity, lending level fell to the minimum, 11 banks were closed (one of them being systematically important). The state budget revenues and expenditures executed with respectively 16.1% and 10% decrease in 2016, compared with the January-November, 2015.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

5. The CESD Assessment on the 2017 State Budget Project

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
According to the legislation on the Budget system, the legislative project on the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2017 and the state and consolidated budget projects of 2017 were publicized on 29th of September, 2016. It has been three years that the legislative projects on the consolidated and state budgets of the Republic of Azerbaijan are being prepared amidst the absence of positive economic trends for the country. Specifically, during the preparation of 2017 state budget, external and internal economic impacts were considered at greater extent. As in previous years, the Center for Economic and Social Development has prepared a comparative analysis of the budget project publicized by the government. It is to be mentioned that, during the preparation of the analysis, the conversion of indicators into the foreign (US dollars) currency is carried out according to annual average currency indicators published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, whereas the conversion of 2016 indicators into US dollars is conducted in accordance with the average exchange rate of first 8 months (1 US Dollars = 1, 56 manat) and 2017 indicators in accordance with the official exchange rate dated 29th September 2016 (1 US dollars = 1.6252 manat). The comparison of the budget project with previous years plays a prominent role in the forecasting of socio-economic trends for next year and the determination of state fiscal policy and the short-term and strategic position of the government in separate directions.
Topic:
Budget and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

6. Currency market in Azerbaijan: Challenging environment for the national currency

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In August, the exchange rate of national currency of Azerbaijan-“Manat” beat all historical records. That is to say, the exchange rate was 1 USD= 1.61 Manat in previous month . It should be noted that, the exchange rate hit 1 USD= 1.6 Manat in March, 2016. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall of oil prices in the world markets there is a visible pressure on the national currency ‘Manat’. Overall, the Azerbaijani “Manat” lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, a depreciation of more than 3% in the first 8 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.2%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in the March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/Manat at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

7. Currency market in Azerbaijan: Why the national currency is losing its value?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
It has already been three month since the national currency of the Republic of Azerbaijan continuously loses its value. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall in oil prices on the world markets, the resulting pressure on the national currency – ‘Manat’ is ongoing nowadays. Overall, Manat lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, with more 3% depreciation in the first 7 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.6%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/AZN at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards. As a result, the national currency increased its annual losses to the level of 3% in June-July, by depreciating 7% against the US dollar again.
Topic:
Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

8. Why Azerbaijan needs a Strategic Reform of its foreign policy towards the European Union?

Author:
Cristina Juan Carrion
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
During the course of 2015 Azerbaijan suffered the impact of two devaluations of the national currency, Azerbaijani Manat (AZN), due to the decrease of the world oil prices. Given that oil and natural gas accounts for more than 90% of Azerbaijani exports, continued low world oil prices had a critical negative impact on the Azerbaijani economy. The current situation has led Azerbaijan to establish new priorities that could help restructure the financial system at this critical moment. The drastic change in the economic outlook of the country has created the need to open a wider window to the European Union (EU) in order to overcome the current economic downturn.
Topic:
Finance and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

9. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2014 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Vitaly Denysyuk, Raphaël Jozan, David Teurtrie, and Faruk Ülgen
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Le lecteur ne s’étonnera pas de ce que, en 2014, le conflit en Ukraine soit au cœur des préoccupations des pays d'Europe centrale, orientale et de l'Eurasie, même si ses incidences sont diversement ressenties selon les régions considérées. Les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale sont divisés dans leur appréhension politique des événements, et leurs économies ne sont pas directement concernées par les retombées du conflit en Ukraine. On pouvait craindre en revanche qu’elles subissent l’atonie de la zone euro, et son incapacité à retrouver des taux de croissance stimulant la demande extérieure. Cependant – et c’est là une heureuse surprise –, plusieurs d’entre elles ont trouvé la parade en tirant parti des fonds que l’Union européenne leur destine généreusement pour relancer leur demande domestique. Et les effets positifs de cette tactique portent des fruits spectaculaires, d’autant qu’elle se combine avec les incidences de la faible hausse des prix sur le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs. Il y a là des enseignements à tirer pour la politique économique de l’Europe Occidentale ! Les pays de l’espace eurasiatique sont eux directement aux prises avec les développements du conflit ukrainien. Les incidences en sont multiples : les sanctions et contre-sanctions entre la Russie et l’Union européenne influent grandement sur les économies périphériques, de grands projets comme le gazoduc South Stream sont annulés, les relations des pays d’Asie centrale et du Caucase avec l’Union européenne sont observées avec vigilance par la Russie… La crise ukrainienne, c’est un fait, porte son ombre sur le grand projet de Vladimir Poutine d’instauration d’une Union économique eurasiatique.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Organization, Markets, Political Economy, War, Natural Resources, Finance, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Emerging States
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Belarus

10. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2013 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Hélène Clément-Pitiot, Matthieu Combe, Vitaly Denysyuk, and Raphaël Jozan
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Dans le Tableau de bord d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie de 2009, nous écrivions que les pays de l’Europe centrale et orientale étaient « touchés mais pas coulés » par la crise mondiale. Quatre ans après, ce diagnostic est toujours valable. Si l’Union européenne reste pour eux un idéal et si l’adhésion à cette union demeure un projet clairement balisé pour les Etats qui n’en sont pas encore membres, celle-ci, engluée dans ses contradictions, paraît trop souvent absente, silencieuse. Aux populations qui lui demandent un meilleur niveau de vie et plus de justice sociale, elle répond par des exigences de réformes et d’austérité et alimente ainsi dangereusement leurs désenchantements. Savoir leur répondre, c’est le défi majeur de l’Union européenne aujourd’hui. Les pays de l’Eurasie, s’ils sont moins directement touchés par la crise de la zone euro et conservent, en conséquence, une croissance nettement plus élevée, ont d’autres préoccupations. Fortement sollicités par la Russie qui entend consolider sa zone d’influence avec la concrétisation de l’Union économique eurasiatique, ils sont aussi l’objet de l’attraction qu’exerce sur eux l’Union européenne – comme en témoignent éloquemment les évènements survenus en Ukraine – et, de plus en plus, la Chine. Cet espace est donc actuellement dans une recomposition qui conditionne les possibilités de son développement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Nationalism, Political Economy, Privatization, Natural Resources, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Regional Integration, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus