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31. Russian Crisis Behavior, Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkey?

Author:
Richard Giragosian, David G. Lewis, and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan initiated a war to retake the disputed Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven districts of Azerbaijan held by Armenian forces.1 The forty-four-day war resulted in a resounding defeat for the Armenian forces and only halted with the acceptance of a Russian-imposed agreement for a cessation of hostilities on November 9-10, 2020. Although the war was initially expected to unfold as a war of attrition with an eventual stalemate based on the advantages of terrain of the Armenian defenders, reality differed in terms of duration, intensity, and outcome.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

32. The Platform of the 3+3 Format: A Review

Author:
Badri Belkania
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which in Ankara and Baku was hailed as a triumphant victory for the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, significantly changed the political situation and the balance of power in the Caucasus region. The turn of the decades-long status quo in favor of Azerbaijan showed that a new phase has begun in the region, often pointed out so by the victorious side as well. 1 Against the backdrop of a significantly changed regional agenda and the growing Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the Caucasus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced the idea of establishing a six-member regional cooperation platform. If the idea were to materialize, the members would include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Georgia, and Armenia.2 Erdogan's idea received a wide response in the region. The new platform for regional cooperation (Russia, Iran, Turkey + Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) has become an important topic of discussion in all six countries, primarily due to its controversial format. The idea of geographically adjacent but politically different countries joining one platform is in direct conflict with the opposing interests of these countries. Despite this significant obstacle, the apologists for the idea, that seeks to replace the conflicts and tensions in the Caucasus with a "long-term peace," remain hopeful that the platform will have a future.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey and Azerbaijan

33. Iran-Azerbaijan Confrontation: Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Iran-Azerbaijan relations have never been easy but they became particularly tense in September-October 2021, attracting attention within the region and beyond. This confrontation between the parties escalated into large-scale military exercises and a war of statements but, fortunately, the tension did not reach a level of military confrontation. In the second half of October, the confrontation slowly subsided. However, the problem has not disappeared. Its causes still exist and have a great potential of reigniting the conflict. Such a situation creates a fertile ground for a number of threats and challenges for the entire region, including Georgia.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

34. Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region” is dedicated to the possible cooperation opportunities in the aftermath of latest 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020 with focus on different views from various experts driven from different countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, European Union, Geopolitics, Conflict, Peace, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

35. Sustaining Power Through External Threats: The Power of Enemy Images in Russia and Azerbaijan

Author:
Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Despite the growing body of research on authoritarian regimes, few studies address the issues of their legitimization through exaggerating external threats and constructing enemy images. Targeting the gap in the literature, this article explores the discursive strategies of ‘evilization’ and demonization of the ‘other’, with a focus on their implications for legitimating and sustaining the authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet space. Examining the cases of Russia and Azerbaijan, the qualitative, comparative analysis presented in this article uncovers a series of essential similarities between the regimes’ legitimization strategies. Findings suggest that there has been a strong tendency in both Russian and Azerbaijani discourses to ‘externalize’ major problems facing the countries and scapegoat ‘evil forces’ as their main causes. Frequent appeals to the external threats have been accompanied by a heightened emphasis on the necessity of strong presidential power, with ‘strongmen’ that are capable of withstanding the enemies’ conspiracies. Remarkably, one of the core similarities between the two regimes is their unstoppable drive towards monarchical presidencies.
Topic:
Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

36. Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Scope and Implications

Author:
Mamuka Tsereteli, Margarita Assenova, Alex Vatanka, and Rauf Mammadov
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has entered its fourth week. The scope of the war has not been limited to the boundaries of the combat zone, resulting in human loss and destruction of civil infrastructure. The region’s important network of energy infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines, are not immune to this latest round of fighting. The military confrontation is taking place in proximity to the critical energy infrastructure that connects the Caspian basin with the European markets. Can the fighting cause disruption to oil and gas flows to the West? What could potential disruption mean for global markets? Can the Southern Gas Corridor be prevented from being launched by the end of this year as had been planned? What are the interests of regional stakeholders such as Turkey, Georgia, Russia, Iran and others that are either energy exporters, consumers or transit nations for Caspian hydrocarbons. And finally, what are the interests of the United States in this conflict and its impact on the energy markets?
Topic:
Energy Policy, Territorial Disputes, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and United States of America

37. Baku’s Success in Using Turkish Drones Raises Question: Could Ukraine Use Them Against Russia in Crimea?

Author:
Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Azerbaijani military’s use of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), purchased from Turkey, played such a prominent role in Baku’s victory over Armenian forces during the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) that defense analysts around the world are now focusing on how their countries may utilize similar unmanned systems and how they could respond if such drones are used against them (Regnum, accessed December 16; Ecfr.eu., November 24; see EDM, November 9). Notably, Azerbaijan employed its Bayraktars to identify and attack Armenian forces as well as to provide a real-time picture of the battlefield that was useful for both strategic planning and propaganda (see EDM, October 15). Now, Vadim Nozdrya, who heads the Ukrainian arms trade state committee Ukrspetseksport, has announced that Kyiv is prepared to purchase from Turkey 48 of these battle-tested UAVs (Milliyet), December 4). That news is undoubtedly prompting analysts in Moscow to consider how Ukraine could eventually use such drones to threaten Russian control of occupied Crimea or Donbas and what Moscow needs to do in response.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Weapons, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Azerbaijan, Crimea, and Mediterranean

38. Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Deadly July 2020 clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces left dozens dead, civilians among them, and forced villagers to flee their homes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. Shooting across the trenches along the border is more frequent today than anywhere else on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s front lines. Why does it matter? Efforts by Baku and Yerevan, including through limited diplomacy, a communication channel set up in 2018 and an agreement between the two sides to safeguard farmers, have largely failed to create conditions that would deter people from leaving border areas. Violence there also risks permanently damaging wider peace efforts. What should be done? The two sides should use the communication channel to warn each other about planned engineering works or other activities that might be misconstrued and lead to escalation. They should begin talks on limited cooperation to allow farmers to harvest crops, repair water networks and clear mines.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

39. Security Review: Nagorno-Karabakh War Consequences

Author:
David Batashvili, Giorgio Bilanishvili, and Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Security Review section of the Rondeli Foundation regularly covers topics analyzing the threats facing Georgia, the changes in Georgia's external security environment and the challenges to Georgia's national security policy. Recently, the developments around Karabakh have seriously changed the previous status quo in our region, precipitating new and very significant circumstances, and have brought about a new reality to the countries of the South Caucasus as well as various important players with an interest in the region. Accordingly, the Rondeli Foundation pays special attention to a complex analysis of the new reality created in the context of Georgia's national security environment. To this end, a discussion series, entitled "New Reality in the South Caucasus," was organized in a webinar format providing the interested public with the opportunity to hear the assessments of experts from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Russia (the discussion series is available on the Rondeli Foundation's YouTube channel and Facebook page. The current issue of the Rondeli Foundation Security Review is also entirely dedicated to the new reality created in our region. It brings together the publications of the Foundation’s researchers that look at and evaluate the current situation from different angles.
Topic:
Security, National Security, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

40. The Nagorno-Karabakh war: A new balance of power in the southern Caucasus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh