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541. India's energy needs

Author:
Nick Hordern
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas, one internal and one external. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, India must not only expand but also renovate its energy sector, a huge task. Moreover, New Delhi must balance accelerating the necessary reform of this sector with the need to avoid alienating important domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from the fact that India will only be able to meet part of its increased energy demand from its own domestic resources, and therefore will be increasingly forced to rely on energy imports. India is trying to secure its energy supplies in a hostile geo-political climate, since New Delhi's parlous relations with its neighbours make energy cooperation difficult. The resultant fears regarding the vulnerability of India's external sources of energy chime with a core principle of New Delhi's political culture, swadeshi (self-sufficiency), whose influence, while waning, retains its potency. Concerns regarding energy security are particularly prevalent in the case of oil, where India's dependence on imports is becoming acute. The proximity of the Persian Gulf to India's industrialised northwest makes it the main source of growing oil imports. But this in turn increases India's reliance on the unstable Gulf. In order to reduce this risk New Delhi will seek out oil from new energy provinces in the Atlantic Basin, Sudan, Russia and South East Asia. It will also turn to a new energy source - gas - and more imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be one result. India's energy needs have implications for Australia. India's growing demand for energy will see coal continue to dominate the energy mix, and as a result India's demand for imported coking coal, including from Australia, is also set to grow. At the same time, India's quest for diversity of supply means that at least some of India's increased LNG imports are likely to be Australian.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Sudan, India, Asia, New Delhi, Australia, and Southeast Asia

542. Diaspora: the World Wide Web of Australians

Author:
Michael Fullilove and Chloë Flutter
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On any given day, there are approximately one million Australians outside Australia, perhaps three-quarters of whom live offshore on a permanent or long term basis. This latter group, the 'Australian diaspora', is large and, in the main, prosperous, well educated, well connected, and well disposed to this country. It is also very mobile: rather than turning their backs on Australia once and for all, expatriates these days are more likely to move back and forward between Australia and other countries as opportunities present.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

543. Unsheathing the Samurai Sword: Japan's Changing Security Policy

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This Lowy Institute Paper sheds analytical light on Japan's changing security policy and seeks answers to several important questions that are of major consequence for Australia and the wider region. What are Japan's strategic aspirations and what does Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi really mean when he talks about Japan becoming a 'normal country'? How signifi cant are the mooted revisions to the peace constitution and how different will the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) be in capability and structure a decade hence? As domestic anxieties increase will Japan move closer to the US or seek greater autonomy within the framework of the US alliance? Is it conceivable that the alliance itself could fracture or dissolve entirely? Will cooperation with the US on missile defence weaken the prohibition on collective self defence and under what circumstances might Japan acquire nuclear weapons?
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, Asia, and Australia

544. Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too: The Presidential Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
According to polling commissioned by the Lowy Institute, twice as many Australians think that US foreign policy is on the wrong track as think it is on the right track. Many observers argue that the direction of American policy will vary greatly depending on the outcome of the presidential election. Certainly, there are significant differences in style and substance between the two candidates, George W. Bush and John F. Kerry. However the similarities are as striking as the differences. External challenges, in particular the Iraq war and the war against terrorism, and internal pressures have combined to produce something of a convergence between the outlooks of foreign policy makers in both parties. In the event of a Bush victory, the failure of its foreign policy adventurism in the first term would probably make for a more centrist policy in the second term. In the event of a Kerry victory, the realities of the international system and the probable Republican control of the Senate would do the same. Whomever is elected, America is likely to pursue an assertive foreign policy involving the use of military force; there will less gleeful unilateralism and steroid-fuelled pre-emption than we have seen in the past four years, but it will still be a world away from the kind of strategy many observers are anticipating. From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our alliance with the US will ensure that it endures regardless of the result on 0 November. However the temperature of the relationship would probably be affected by a Kerry win. Given the task the senator has set himself of strengthening links with allied capitals, the relationship with Canberra would likely be less of a priority for him than for President Bush. On the other hand, the election of a new face in Washington would make other aspects of Australia's diplomatic life easier.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Australia

545. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

546. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

547. The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

548. Considering China as a Potential Member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:
Andrew Prosser
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In January 2004, China formally requested to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an informal multilateral export control regime that aims to contribute to the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons through the coordination and implementation of guidelines which govern transfers of nuclear material and technology. The NSG's membership comprises the principal nuclear supplier states in Europe and the Americas, as well as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, and a number of former Eastern Bloc states, including Russia. The group's decisions, including those concerning the admission of new members, are made on a consensus basis, but the informal nature of the organization means that its decisions cannot be construed as legally binding upon its member countries.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand

549. La política exterior de las entidades federativas: un estudio comparado

Author:
Jorge A. Schiavon
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper analyses the causes of the increased international activity of federated states' units, and the way and intensity in which this activity takes place. First, it explains that the growing participation of federal entities in foreign policy is a product, on one hand, of increasing globalization and interdependence in the international system, and, on the other, of the internal processes of liberalization, democratization, and decentralization. Second, using the Mexican case as an example, it explains how the legal rules in the Constitution establish the limits of international participation of the states of the federation; then, it analyses how the institutional configuration, the division of power, and the division of purpose in the system influence the degree of intensity of participation of these federal units in foreign policy issues, within the constitutional limitations. Likewise, it considers economic capacity and geographical location of the states as variables that also seem to influence their degree of activity. Then, it briefly explores how Mexican federal entities have participated in the internacional arena. Finally, it describes the relationships, in terms of foreign policy, between different orders of government in other federal systems, such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, and the United States, and contrasts these relationships with those in Mexico.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, and Mexico

550. Beginning Again: From Refugee to Citizen

Author:
Ahmed I Samatar
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
A key feature of this phase of globalization is a speedy catalyzation of a heretofore unseen degree of human mobility and cultural interpenetration. Unlike the earlier epochs in the making of the modern world (16th through the early 20th-century), when Europeans were the main groups leaving their homelands to find better lives in other parts of the word, the contemporary era is witness to a dramatic reversal movement. Many in Africa, Central and South America, and Asia have come or are earnestly planning to lift their heels for the “old” West (even to Southern and Eastern Europe) and “neo-Europe” (e.g., the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). The phenomenal arrival of tens of thousands of Somalis in the United States within the last two decades (first as a trickle and then in larger numbers since the 1990s) is to a great extent part of this trend. It is a happening that is, in one sense, part of an old story, as President Roosevelt correctly asserted, and a continuous aspect in the quintessential making of these United States, marked by the settlement of people from almost every region of the world. As a matter of fact, since the passage of the Immigration Act of 1965 and the Refugee Act of 1980, more than twenty million legal immigrants have entered the U.S. A dramatic demographic consequence of these flows of people, according to the 2000 U.S. Census, is this: At present, those Americans who are foreign-born and their children compose around one-fifth of the American population. If the Somali presence in America is one slice of the latest iteration, the potential for a decent, let alone notable success—in both material and mental terms—depends on how, individually and collectively, they assess the complexities of the new environment and, subsequently, snatch any legitimate turns of chance. To state this point is not to under estimate how difficult circumstances have been, are, or could be. The life histories of others who came before Somalis, including some of European ancestry (e.g., the Irish and southerners from around the Mediterranean),testify to the cruel treatment that might await and the bogushindrances that one must struggle against during the transition.
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand