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1. The geopolitics of water: how the Brahmaputra River could shape India–China security competition

Author:
Neely Haby
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report assesses the geopolitical impact of a possible dam at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. In particular, it exams the dam as a potential source of coercive leverage China may gain over India. A dam there would create four likely strategic effects: it would very likely consolidate Beijing’s political control over its distant borderlands; it would create the potential for massive flooding as a tool of violence; it may affect human settlement and economic patterns on the Indian side of the border, downstream; and it would give Beijing water and data that it could withhold from India as bargaining leverage in unrelated negotiations. To mitigate those challenges and risks, the report provides three policy recommendations for the Indian Government and its partners in Australia and the US. First, it recommends the establishment of an open-source, publicly available data repository, based on satellite sensing, to disseminate information about the physical impacts of the Great Bend Dam. Second, it recommends that like-minded governments use international legal arguments to pressure Beijing to abide by global norms and conventions. Third, it recommends that the Quad—the informal group comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US—use its humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) guidelines to begin to share information and build capacity for dam-related contingencies.
Topic:
Water, Geopolitics, Rivers, Competition, Regional Security, and Brahmaputra River
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

2. Navigating the climate crisis together: EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation

Author:
Sarah Lokenberg and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The environmental, economic and security implications of climate change are unmistakably evident in both the ASEAN and the EU. As building climate resilience is an area where the EU has a solid track record and international outreach, this creates an avenue for closer cooperation with ASEAN. Water management and disaster governance are two promising areas within the field of climate adaptation. This policy brief argues for closer EU-ASEAN cooperation on climate adaptation, emphasising the need for robust institutions, better access to information and improved water infrastructures to increase resilience. To achieve these objectives, currently successful bilateral initiatives could be elevated into broader regional collaboration and the EU could encourage investments in water infrastructures and disaster risk information technologies. Furthermore, the EU could support the creation of regulatory frameworks for improved water management and institutional alignment by providing financial support and technical advice. In the context of US-China rivalry, a strengthened strategic partnership could also serve as a counterbalance to current regional geopolitics.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Water, European Union, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

3. The Global Impact of China’s Water and Related Environmental Problems

Author:
Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The quantity, location, and quality of water resources in China have long been a distinguishing and even defining characteristic of its history. Records at least as far back as the Ch’in era in the third century BC note the presence of massive waterworks such as irrigation and transportation canals. Terraced rice fields in hilly areas in central and southern China remain iconic images of Chinese civilization. During a contentious and important debate in the mid-twentieth century, geographers and political scientists asked whether the erection of a “hydraulic society” was the explanation for what political scientist Karl Wittfogel identified as “oriental despotism.”1 The German-trained academic argued that the existential requirement to contain endemic flooding and move water from the massive rivers of central and southern China to agricultural areas necessitated an authoritarian system for deploying labor on the scale required for hydraulic engineering projects spanning the continent. Chairman Mao Zedong drily noted at the beginning of his reign that “there is a lot of water in the south and not much water in the north . . . borrowing some water would be good.”2 Mao was soon to unleash the massive workforce of China to renew and expand efforts over the centuries to get water to farmland, control flooding, and reengineer the landscape of modern China. Even without exaggerating the centrality of water issues for historical China, in the modern era water resources are clearly still vital to the country’s economic and ecological health. And hydraulic engineering projects have become increasingly important, both to China’s Asian neighbors and to the global environment. An important new survey of the “ecological history” of modern China concludes that “in growing from impoverished giant to wealthy superpower in seventy years, China has sacrificed whatever resilience its ecosystem once possessed. It has polluted and poisoned its air, water, and soil . . . it has turned forests into plantations and seen deserts expand . . . and has seen lakes come to resemble green paint.”3 Unfortunately, China’s ecological problems have increasingly had negative impacts outside its borders. China’s unprecedented geoengineering to move water from the south to the north is now imperiling both the water resources available downstream from Tibet and the Hindu-Kush mountains, and the economy and ways of living of literally billions of people. China needs ever more land to grow higher quality food and produce higher yields, which frees up land for housing its population. These efforts have led to deforestation not only in China but also in South America and South Asia. And the consistent choice of Beijing’s leadership to drive economic growth at the expense of environmental health has led to dangerous levels of water pollution and poor soil health in China. Environmental degradation has become a growing political issue in China, and its export of this problem has incited considerable international concern. This study explores these issues with a focus on water resources, and it outlines the regional and global impacts of Chinese policy. The study concludes with a discussion of China’s ability and ambition to address these problems as well as how affected countries can help move Chinese leadership toward a more constructive and cooperative effort to develop a solution.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Water
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4. Water diplomacy analysis for Central Asia: Dynamics of insecurity and sources of resilience

Author:
Emma Hakala, Katariina Mustasilta, and Mohammed Hadi
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Climate change, geopolitical tensions and other global crises emphasise the need for water diplomacy, which refers to the prevention and resolution of political tensions with the help of water expertise and diplomatic tools. Disputes over water can contribute to instability, but fair and well-governed management of water resources can serve as a platform for cooperation and peacebuilding. In Central Asia, water has a crucial role as a precondition for economic and social development, but also for relations between the countries in the region due to the large­ly transboundary and shared character of resources. Questions about water use have been intertwined in disputes about other unresolved issues between the countries in the past. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly visible and are likely to further reduce water access, it is important to better understand the water conflict and resilience dynamics. This analysis traces the potential for water diplomacy in Central Asia. It identifies major conflict factors, peace enablers, regional dynamics and the role of water resources. The analysis takes an anticipatory, forward-looking approach, particularly focusing on sources of resilience and potential points of cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, Governance, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

5. Water Warriors: How China’s River Chiefs Aim to Tackle Water Pollution

Author:
Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In many ways, China’s history is one of water management. As Chinese historiographers often remark, the unique hydrological conditions within China led to the creation of three historical miracles: China, Chinese civilisation, and the Chinese people. In both ancient and modern times, Chinese rulers have acknowledged the importance of water for its role in maintaining social stability as well securing their legitimacy. Beijing’s leaders are acutely aware of the importance of water in maintaining social stability and ensuring the regime’s survival. The government has focused on engineering its way to water security, an approach traceable in part to Mao Zedong’s idea that man must conquer nature. This is reflected in the Chinese state’s construction of large-scale hydroengineering projects, encompassing numerous dams and inter-basin water-transfer projects. More recently, water governance was explicitly tied to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ecological civilization” (生态文明) concept (China Brief, June 23) and his published book titled “The In-depth Learning and Implementation of Xi Jinping’s Important Discourse on Water Governance” (People’s Daily, July 19). In May, China announced new plans to improve water quality. According to the “Guideline on Water Ecology and Environmental Protection in Major River Basins”, by 2025 China’s water governance aims to accomplish two main objectives: first, eliminate surface water below Grade V quality, and second, raise the proportion of “fairly good quality” surface water to 85 percent—an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2020 (Ministry of Ecology and the Environment, May 5; State Council, May 5). China has a six-tier water quality system, with water below Grade V classified as the worst quality. At Grade III or above, surface water is considered to be of “fairly good quality”. As a core convention of the central government, guidelines on the water management of major river basins are typically issued once every five years. In contrast to older guidelines, the most recent guidelines explicitly specificizes the improvement of surface water quality as an obligatory target and includes projected targets for the conservation of water resources and ecosystems. By 2025, for instance, China has set ambitious plans to recover waters levels in 53 dried-up water bodies and restore native fish species to a stable population in 107 major water bodies. China also aims to create an additional 213 square kilometers of wetlands by 2025.
Topic:
Water, Governance, Pollution, and Rivers
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6. Water Dilemmas: The cascading impacts of water insecurity in a heating world

Author:
Padmini Iyer
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This briefing paper presents findings from Oxfam’s recently commissioned research on climate predictions for 2040 and 2050 in the Middle East, the Horn, East and Central Africa (HECA), West Africa and Asia regions. Analyses show how temperature increases will influence water insecurity in these regions and the potential impacts on food security, the spread of diseases, and other factors. This briefing paper also reveals severe under-investment by national governments and donors in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) systems, with critical implications not only for water security but also for poverty and inequality. Oxfam is calling for urgent action to increase investments in sustainable, climate-adapted water management for the people who are most at risk from the worsening climate crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Resources, Water, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Asia

7. The Waterfall’s Shadow in the Mekong Region

Author:
Benjamin Jensen, Daniel F. Runde, and Thomas Bryja
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States and its network of democratic partners and allies increasingly find themselves struggling to safeguard the rule of law, free markets, civil liberties, and human security in countries most at risk from climate change and its impact on water security. A network of authoritarian states led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are using infrastructure investment programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) alongside gray zone campaigns to gain access and influence, often in areas most at risk of further climate shock and water insecurity, particularly in the Mekong region. As a result, continuing to develop water strategies offers a viable means of integrating development and deterrence to address core human security challenges and deny further authoritarian access and influence across the world’s most climate-stressed societies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Climate Change, Development, Water, Food Security, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sustainability, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Asia and Mekong River

8. Growing Food Insecurity – Global Water Crisis: Options for Food Security

Author:
Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Water is indispensable for agriculture. Farming globally, on which millions depend for livelihood, has become more volatile due to water insecurity. It has worsened due to climate change-induced droughts and floods, which have grown in intensity and frequency worldwide. In Asia, the growing water insecurity has caused unpredictable food production, requiring enormous imports from other regions.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Water, Food, Inequality, and Food Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia

9. Politico Legal Dynamics of Seaborne Piracy in the Pelagic Waters of South East Asia

Author:
Sreemoyee Sarkar
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Geopolitical location places the seaborne piracy infested pelagic waters of South East Asia (SEA) astride a very different façade of international relations and maritime legal regime of the littoral states disturbing the commercial route and the energy lifelines. The littoral states of the SEA are the immediate stake holders who have a primary role to play in addressing the challenges arising out of this seaborne menace. The present study specifically includes three littoral states of the SEA as representative references, for examination against the backdrop of UNCLOS regime and they are Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The present work offers a comparative analysis of anti-piracy legal regime of the above selected maritime states who are also the ASEAN states. They all belong to the group of high-income and middle-income developing economies, as categorised by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank). These nation states have maritime, economic and strategic interests in the oceans and seas adjacent to them. Another striking commonality is that, most of them are poised to industrialise their economies, can be observed from the relatively high-average annual growth rate in the industrial sectors vis-a-vis the agricultural sectors of their respective economies, since the 1990s. Hitherto, the issues raised are, what are the stake holds of the concerned states? Is the prevailing legal regime adequate enough to maintain the maritime stake holds? Are the littoral states triggered to ‘use of force’ law by post-9/11 developments related? It also addresses how regional and national actors are functioning differently within the scope of a discourse of international law and agencies like UN, ASEAN, etc.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Water, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Asia and South East Asia

10. Designing Sustainable Water Supply Systems in Tajikistan: A step-by-step guide to design, construction and ownership

Author:
Orkhan Ali
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Tajikistan is often described as the poorest country in Central Asia, with GDP per capita consistently lower than any of its regional neighbours. Its water and sanitation infrastructure is severely dilapidated, suffering from decades of underinvestment and the failure to address widespread damage suffered during the country’s civil war (1992–1997). Efforts to ensure everyone has improved access to adequate water and sanitation services are characterised by contradictory legislation and blurred responsibilities between state agencies. Reform of the sector and roll-out of improved infrastructure have been slow, requiring strong accountability mechanisms to ensure that the rights of the most vulnerable people are adequately protected. Oxfam’s water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) programme s therefore based on a theory of change that aims to improve the health status of Tajikistan’s population through the delivery of long-lasting WASH services, while addressing market systems and strengthening institutions.
Topic:
Development, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan