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2. To what extent can urbanisation mitigate the negative impact of population ageing in China?
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China is experiencing population ageing caused by a rapidly declining fertility rate and increased life expectancy. This demographic transition poses economic challenges, yet the intensity of these challenges depends on a number of factors, with the move of people from rural to urban areas being of central importance. To gain a clearer understanding of how urbanisation interacts with population ageing, we investigate changes in the Chinese labour force in both rural and urban areas. Our findings suggest a modest shrinking of the overall labour force up until 2035. However, until 2035, the labour force is projected to contract only in rural areas, while the urban labour force will continue to grow. As urban employment is more productive than rural employment, the combined effect of demographic change and urbanisation on growth will remain moderately positive (0.4 percent per year). Beyond 2035, fertility rate decline will begin to affect the working-age population in both rural and urban areas, especially since the urbanisation process is expected to level off by then. In such circumstances, China’s shrinking population will shave off 1.4 percent from GDP growth annually. These results, however, do not take into account the impact of population aging on labour productivity. China’s fast move towards robotisation and artificial intelligence might help mitigate any negative impacts by increasing productivity, but there is no sign yet that this is the case.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3. East Asian Cities: Past Development and Onrushing Challenges
- Author:
- Shahid Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- The East Asian export-led development model has served as a beacon for decades. For the many urbanized and rapidly urbanizing countries, the East Asian experience with and response to emerging challenges can be equally instructive. High-income East Asian economies are at or approaching peak urbanization. China is likely to catch up within the next three decades. Since the 1950s, urbanization was accelerated by industrialization, which provided a plenitude of jobs directly and indirectly. It generated the resources that helped build urban infrastructure and housing, financed essential services, and created modern, urban livability. However, East Asian cities, like cities in other high- and middle-income countries, face new challenges. Services are displacing manufacturing as growth drivers and providers of jobs; the absorption of digital technologies, urban greening, and control of pollution/carbon emissions is more urgent; climate change is necessitating the upgrading of services and infrastructure to enhance resilience; climate change will also compel a managed withdrawal from some urban locations; and both services and physical facilities must adapt to meet the needs of aging populations. Responding to these challenges calls for strategic long-range planning, technological advances, implementation capacity, and resource mobilization. By 2050, 70 percent of the global population will live in cities. Therefore, how East Asians tackle these challenges can inform and guide policymakers in developed and developing countries alike.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Urbanization, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
4. The Urbanization of People- The Politics of Development in the Chinese City
- Author:
- Eli Friedman and Yao Lu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The Urbanization of People (May 2022, Columbia University Press) reveals how cities in China have granted public goods to the privileged while condemning poor and working-class migrants to insecurity, constant mobility, and degraded educational opportunities. Using the school as a lens on urban life, Eli Friedman investigates how the state manages flows of people into the city. He demonstrates that urban governments are providing quality public education to those who need it least: school admissions for nonlocals heavily favor families with high levels of economic and cultural capital. Those deemed not useful are left to enroll their children in precarious resource-starved private schools that sometimes are subjected to forced demolition. Over time, these populations are shunted away to smaller locales with inferior public services. Based on extensive ethnographic research and hundreds of in-depth interviews, this interdisciplinary book details the policy framework that produces unequal outcomes as well as providing a fine-grained account of the life experiences of people drawn into the cities as workers but excluded as full citizens.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Urbanization, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5. The End of the Village: Planning the Urbanization of Rural China
- Author:
- Weiping Wu, Xiaobo Lü, Nick R. Smith, Wing-Shing Tang, Deborah Davis, and Andrew Kipnis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, China has dramatically expanded its urbanization processes in an effort to reduce the inequalities between urban and rural areas. New development programs, including “urban-rural coordination”, “new-type urbanization”, and, most recently, “rural revitalization”, are restructuring China’s urban–rural relations and imposing novel forms of state-led urbanization onto the countryside. Rural simulacra, such as high-rise new towns, ecological protection zones, historical tourism sites, and industrialized farms, increasingly reflect planners' and policy-makers' urban imaginations of what the rural should be and have more to do with serving urban consumers than ensuring rural welfare. The result is a fundamental rewriting of the nation’s social contract, as villages that once organized rural life and guaranteed rural livelihoods are replaced by an increasingly urbanized landscape dominated by state institutions. Smith’s recently published book, The End of the Village: Planning the Urbanization of Rural China, explores the contested implementation of this radical new approach to urbanization in the municipality of Chongqing. Drawing on the book’s findings, this interdisciplinary panel brings together leading scholars of Chinese urbanization to discuss the ongoing transformation of China’s urban–rural relations. This event is cosponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia GSAPP, and Columbia SIPA.
- Topic:
- Urbanization, Inequality, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
6. Urbanization with Chinese characteristics: Domestic migration and urban growth in contemporary China
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt and Alex Coblin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Due to extremely low levels of fertility over the past generation, urban China now requires a constant inflow of rural migrants to maintain, much less increase, the workforce in China’s cities. Beijing’s current official “urbanization drive” is attempting to bolster China’s flagging economic growth rates by accelerating the movement of peasants into the cities. But since most highly skilled labor from the countryside is already working in urban areas, the next wave of migrants may be less productive than authorities anticipate. “Migration with Chinese Characteristics” means police state controls on urban influx, including Beijing’s notorious hukou system for individual identification and registration. Since authorities still prevent most migrants from obtaining new hukou where they currently reside and work, China now has hundreds of millions of “illegal aliens” toiling in its cities. The urbanization drive does not plan to fix this problem.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Urbanization, and Population Growth
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
7. China’s Smart Cities: The New Geopolitical Battleground
- Author:
- Alice Ekman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- “Smart city” development has become a fashionable policy and research topic. A growing number of central and local governments in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, in partnership with companies from diverse sectors (construction, transport, energy, water, etc), consulting firms, NGOs and experts, are now developing smart-city-related projects. This report looks at the smart city from a broader, geopolitical perspective, and considers it, for the first time, as a potential area of geopolitical competition between countries. This approach is relevant given the strategic nature of the infrastructure involved in smart-city development (telecommunication and energy grids, mobile networks, data centers, etc). It is also relevant at a time of prolonged tensions between China and the United States – a period during which 5G and other technologies that are key to developing smart cities are generating global debate and diverging positions across countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Urbanization, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Smart Cities
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
8. Qui gardera les gardiens ? Sécurité industrielle et production d’incertitude à Karachi (Who’s Watching the Watchmen? Corporate Security and the Manufacturing of Uncertainty in Karachi)
- Author:
- Laurent Gayer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- The history of industrial capitalism and its modes of domination is intimately linked to that of violent entrepreneurs deploying their coercive resources at the service of workplace discipline, the extraction of surplus value and the securitization of the accumulation cycle. The relationship between capital and coercion is always fraught with tensions, though, and sustains new vulnerabilities among securityconsuming elites. The manufacturing economy of Karachi is a particularly fertile ground for studying this endogenous production of insecurity by security devices. The relations between Karachi’s factory owners and their guards have generated their own economy of suspicion. Various attempts to conjure this shaky domination have generated new uncertainties, calling for new methods of control to keep the guards themselves under watch.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Corruption, Crime, Political Economy, Sociology, Urbanization, Material Culture, and Political Science
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and Asia
9. Census Towns in India - Current Patterns and Future Discourses
- Author:
- Shamindra Nath Roy and Jaya Prakash Pradhan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- The surge in census towns (CTs) during Census 2011 has drawn a lot of attention to the ongoing and future dynamics of these in-situ urban settlements in India. Using the village level information from the previous and current censuses, the present study attempts to identify the villages that can be classified as a census town in 2021. While the prevailing dataset bears some obstacles for a neat identification of such settlements, it can be observed that a fairly high number of rural areas may be classified as CTs in future, which currently accommodates a population of 17.9 million. While the current nature of regional distribution of these areas may not vary much over the future, their areal characteristics over time portray multiple spatial processes undergirding India’s urban trajectory. A lot of these prospective CTs are also relatively prosperous than their current rural neighbourhoods, which reinforces the persistence of similar pattern of urban transformation in future.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Urbanization, Census, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia
10. Engines without Drivers: Cities in India’s Growth Story
- Author:
- Partha Mukhopadhyay
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- It is now almost axiomatic that cities are the engines of growth. Historically, federal support programmes have focused on rural areas, but over the past fifteen years, the need to devise such programmes for urban local bodies has come to be recognised, with JNNURM in its various forms, being the most visible early manifestation. This trend has continued, even strengthened, in this government and among the menu of urban support programmes on offer from the Government of India, the vision of the city as the engine of growth is most clearly evident in the Smart City Mission, with its focus on area based development – like an engine within the city. Yet, even in the mainstream economics literature, while there is evidence for cities as places of higher productivity, there is less evidence for cities as drivers of growth – with learning being the primary driver and urban primacy being an important obstacle. The primary questions are whether cities are places of learning, whether there are identifiable mechanisms of such learning and the kind of city institutions – economic, social and political – that facilitate such learning. This paper will interrogate the empirical characteristics of such urban institutions in India in the context of the theoretical literature and learning mechanisms that emerge from international evidence. In particular, it will argue that the nature of the labour market, which is largely contractual, the transfer of rural fragmentation in social relations to cities and the absence of city-level political agency, all reduce the potential of the city as a location of learning economies. For cities to even have the possibility of being engines of growth, we need to ensure that drivers of these engines are in place and we have a mechanism to think about paths to follow.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Urbanization, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia
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