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1. Comovement of Home Prices: A Conditional Copula Approach

Author:
Lei Hou, Wei Long, and Qi Li
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Even though housing markets in different areas are relatively localized, regional home prices have become closely correlated and tend to be simultaneously affected by many national economic factors. In this paper, through the dynamic copula model, we confirm that regional home price dependence is time-varying and the conventional time-invariant copulas underestimate the degree of dependence during economic expansions and recessions. In essence, the U.S. residential real estate market has become more integrated since the mid-1980s. Using the conditional copula model, we further identify how the dependence among regional housing markets evolves along with some fundamental economic factors such as unemployment rate and interest rate. These findings can help investors and home buyers to better identify and evaluate the systematic risk in the nationwide housing market.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, and Housing
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)

Author:
Avani Kapur and Meghna Paul
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is a flagship scheme of the Government of India (GoI) which aims to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year (FY) to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on: Trends in allocations and expenditures; Trends in employment provided and wages paid, and Physical assets created and status of work completion.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Employment, Finance, Rural, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

3. A Quantitative Trade Model with Unemployment

Author:
Kyu Yub Lee
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, quantifying the welfare effects from tariff changes has become one of the main challenges among international trade economists. There are a number of quantitative trade models with micro-foundations which emphasize demand-side (Anderson and Van Wincoop 2003), supply-side (Eaton and Kortum 2002), Bertrand competition (Bernard et al. 2003), extensive and intensive margin (Chaney 2008), etc, and conclude that trade liberalization with tariff reductions leads an economy to reach a higher level of welfare compared to pre-liberalization (Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare 2014). While elegant, these models inducing gravity equations share the common assumption, a perfect labor market. Quantitative trade models with full-employment developed so far have not taken account of labor market frictions when evaluating the welfare effects from tariff changes. This paper aims to fill the gap in the trade literature by explicitly considering labor market frictions. I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China’s tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.
Topic:
Tariffs, Economic Policy, Trade, Unemployment, and Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4. Trade Disputes With China Shoot US In The Foot

Author:
Li Chunding
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
US-China trade friction has intensified, and one excuse that the Trump administration has used for trade protectionism against China is that China has been stealing US jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector. But bilateral trade has nothing to do with unemployment in the US. China itself or trade with China is merely scapegoats. The US is being a fault finder without realizing that the real reasons are internal, and the trade conflict will jeopardize manufacturing jobs on both sides.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Trade, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5. Becoming Homeless, Surviving Homelessness: The lives of six working homeless men in Yamuna Pushta, Delhi

Author:
Ashwin Parulkar
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This working paper from CPR’s and TISS' Understanding Metropolitan Homelessness project tells stories of six migrant homeless men from Uttar Pradesh and Nagaland who live, for various durations, in shelters along the western bank of the Yamuna river in North Delhi, locally referred to as ‘Yamuna Pushta’. Through tracing their journeys from villages and towns to Delhi’s streets, the paper explores how these men became homeless and how they survive homelessness in Delhi. This project, which is funded by ICSSR and is being conducted by CPR and TISS is led by Partha Mukhopadhyay and Ashwin Parulkar at CPR and Tarique Mohammed at TISS. A key objective of the project in general, and this paper in particular, is to better understand the structural causes of homelessness (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and how these are interlinked – through capturing the lived experiences of the homeless in their voice. This research aims to inform successful policy and implementation responses to address the current ineffectiveness of outreach efforts to homeless people in Delhi, despite interventions by the Supreme Court and support schemes designed by the government. The six stories in the paper uncover conditions, and combinations, of extreme poverty and physical abuse experienced by these men in their native places before they left home. It traces how they secure jobs, and survive, in daily wage, informal economies without housing, as well as access social services like shelter, health and drug de-addiction programs to endure the streets of Delhi. According to a 2010 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) survey, 87% of nearly 55,955 homeless adults worked jobs in the informal economy, entailing ‘the most rigorous activities which are essential for movement and building in the city.’ This paper describes in detail the varied experiences these six men have in such jobs that they find through contractors in informal labour ‘markets’ (mandis); as cooks and servers in small eateries (dhabas), and as wedding catering party workers. Through their trajectories, Parulkar also explores differences between working homeless men who return home to support families and those who have no ties with their native places and live on the streets indefinitely. For a sense of how these men became homeless and the work conditions they experience while homeless, listen to audio samples of interviews (above) conducted during field research.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, Social Policy, Unemployment, and Homelessness
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

6. Youth in India: Prospects and Challenges

Author:
Bhanu Joshi and Eesha Kunduri
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India is the youngest country amongst the BRICS. It is estimated that by 2020 the working age population in India would be about 592 million, second to that of China’s (776 million). Theorised in terms of the ‘youth bulge’ or ‘demographic dividend’, this holds out prospects as well as challenges for a developing country like India. This note approaches the question of youth in contemporary urban India by shedding light on a variety of perspectives: the institutional structure and governance framework for young people in India, the involvement of and interest of young people in politics, employment-unemployment amongst youth, aspirations, and everyday politics of the youth. By considering both formal politics and political representations among youth as also more everyday forms of politics and aspirational dimensions of youth engagement, this note attempts to develop a holistic snapshot of contemporary urban youth.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Politics, Employment, Youth, Urban, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

7. Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Author:
Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Proponents of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after ten years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the United States to 13 percent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of the TPP’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model. Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. We find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full-employment models, and are negative for Japan and the United States. More important, we find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Inequality, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and Asia-Pacific