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882. Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences
- Author:
- Colin Robinson and Stephen H. Baker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- North Korea's military threat and somewhat peculiar approaches to international relations have been a central difficulty in dealing with the isolated regime during the past decade. In the early 1990s, North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), was expected by many observers to collapse, just as communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union did.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union
883. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China's Security
- Author:
- Tian Jingmei
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
884. Survey of SSR Regional and Sub-Regional Networks
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
- Abstract:
- The enclosed survey was conducted in order to map all regional and sub regional networks working in the field of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of mapping SSR networks in these regions is multi-fold. Firstly it is imperative that at a time when security has taken a truly global dimension and span, academics and practitioners alike are aware of the state of SSR in different regions. Certain similarities and patterns emerge during the analysis that offer lessons and directions for actors wishing to become involved in SSR in a particular region, or searching for guidance in applying best practices and lessons learned to particular situations. Secondly, exchange of experience and ideas is especially important in supporting South-South dialogue, but the value of cooperation cannot be overemphasized given the often-unclear context in which SSR activities take place. The mapping exercise serves as an entry-point for practitioners to identify existing networks and their areas of expertise. Opportunities for collaboration are made possible by identifying other organisations that are pursuing similar goals. Additionally, the map of SSR networks serves to identify possible gaps in scope of activity and highlights entry points for other organisations and networks to further the objectives of security sector management and reform. Lastly, this exercise will serve as a vehicle for the GFN-SSR to develop ways to strengthen its activities. One way in which the GFN-SSR is already adding value is through the development of its website, which, inter alia, offers a newsletter in four languages, i.e., English, French, Spanish and Portuguese. An activity to reinforce the access to information for those in areas of poor connectivity is already being developed through the conception of a CD-ROM containing all the existing website information for distribution on a timely basis to interested organisations.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, America, Europe, Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean
885. Chechen Militia Threaten Increased Terrorism
- Author:
- Tamara Makarenko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
- Abstract:
- Chechen resistance movements have reorganised to adjust to the post 11 September 2001 security environment, and appear to be adopting more lethal terrorist tactics. Tamara Makarenko reports.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
886. On the Frontline of an Epidemic: The Need for Urgency in Russia's Fight Against AIDS
- Author:
- John E. Tedstrom
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- AIDS is a global threat that affects us all. Its destructive reach extends far beyond the sphere of public health, threatening social stability, economic performance, and national security. The United States has struggled with HIV/AIDS for over 20 years. At least 440,000 Americans have died from AIDS -related conditions, many more than would have if American political leaders had acted early in the 1980s to confront the epidemic in its initial stages. Over time, however, the commitment of the U.S. government to prevent the spread of HIV and treat people living with HIV/AIDS produced remarkable results. New infections have dropped from 150,000 per year to 40,000 per year, and AIDS -related deaths have been cut in half.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia
887. In Search of 'Suitable Positions' in the Asia Pacific: Negotiating the U.S. China Relationship and Regional Security
- Author:
- Evelyn Goh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the US and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. It examines three alternative models to assess some of the possible processes and outcomes in negotiating Sino-American coexistence. (I) Power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges US dominance, with a range of possible outcomes; (II) The maintenance of the status quo of US strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge concentrating instead on inernal consolidation and on developing its economic power; and (III) Negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation, either through froming a concert (duet) of power, or by moving towards a regional security community. The paper suggests that Model II is likely for the short-to medium-term; Model III for the medium term; and Model I for the long term.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
888. Coast Guards: New Forces For Regional Order and Security
- Author:
- Sam Bateman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) created new maritime law and extended maritime jurisdiction that were ex-pected to justify naval expansion. To some extent this has been so, but another trend is also apparent. Regional navies are concentrating on war-fighting capabilities while existing coast guards are being expanded and some countries are establishing coast guards for the first time. The protection of off-shore areas and resources is a central element of national security for most regional countries and an important consideration in nation building and governance. Coast Guards are emerging as important national institutions in Asia and the Pacific with the potential to make a major contribution to regional order and security. This development reflects a concern for coop-erative and comprehensive security and will facilitate regional maritime cooperation and confidence building. It is a positive factor for regional order and security and may constitute a revolution in maritime strategic thinking.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
889. Truth, Justice and Reconciliation in a Post-Conflict Context
- Author:
- Eirin Mobekk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- When the Indonesian government agreed to hold the ballot of independence in East Timor in August 1999, it led to a cascade of violence throughout the pre-ballot period by pro-integration militias and Indonesian security forces. The violence that was perpetrated in East Timor in 1999 has been defined as crimes against humanity. It included murder, rape, torture and inhuman and degrading treatment. After the result of the ballot was announced the violence accelerated out of control. The number of dead is estimated to be between 1,300 and 1,500, most of the population was displaced and 70% of the infrastructure destroyed. Re-construction, re-building and reconciliation were now on the agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Welfare, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Asia
890. Central Asian Leadership Succession: When, Not If
- Author:
- Eugene B. Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Central Asian political landscape yields few signs of an impending storm in the near term. The absence of threats to the status quo, however, does not mean that it is acceptable or that it represents a stable political equilibrium in the region. Leadership succession in Central Asia bears watching for several reasons: as a precedent-setting process, it will provide the key missing element for the emerging political structures of the Central Asian states the tenure of the next generation will either make up for the shortcomings of its predecessors or aggravate them in the event of the latter, the stage will be set in Central Asia for more radical changes that could reverberate far beyond remote regional boundaries.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia