Search

Begin New Search Topic Risk Political Geography Asia

1. A Quantitative Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment Effects for Sustainable Development: Indonesia Case Study

Author:
Hiroaki Ishiwata, Hiroyuki Wada, Koji Suzuki, and Naoto Tada
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the long-term impacts of large-scale disasters on the economic growth of developing countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Community, by the scale of disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments. As a means of quantitatively analysing the optimal level and economic efficiency of DRR investments, a case study was conducted on Indonesia by using a dynamic stochastic macroeconomic model. The results showed that in Indonesia, although greater economic growth is expected when additional DRR investments are made, an excessive DRR investment may contrarily lead to a slowdown in economic growth: an optimal level of DRR investment exists and maintaining its level is essential for sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, it was confirmed that there is a break-even point when the amount of accumulated disaster damage mitigation benefits exceeds the amount of accumulated DRR investment. This demonstrated that the funds invested in DRR could be recovered. Additionally, the results also showed that even if no disaster damage is caused over a long period of time, DRR investments are by no means redundant as the ‘ex-ante risk reduction effect’ will be generated when the optimal level of DRR investment is made. Lastly, it was determined that providing a continuous DRR investment is important in achieving the global target set forth in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. In addition, it is considered desirable to maintain a higher level of DRR investment than that which is currently being implemented.
Topic:
Economic growth, Investment, Risk, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

2. Economic Damage from Natural Hazards and Local Disaster Management Plans in Japan and Thailand

Author:
Makoto Ikeda and Thawatchai Palakhamarn
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Japan and Thailand are geographically similar in that both countries have a vast coastline and a population that is concentrated in urban areas. Natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, floods, and landslides bring about a considerable amount of damage every year. To counter these natural hazards, both countries have developed disaster management laws at the national, provincial, and prefectural levels. Establishing and executing local disaster management plans is particularly important as the initial response to a disaster is first performed at the local level. In this study, we have focused on the local disaster management plans in Thailand and examined the state of the development of the plans, which are essential during a post-disaster period. We also found that in Japan there was a defined tangible system of cooperation with the private sector based on the unique characteristics of each local government.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Risk, Private Sector, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Thailand

3. Can China’s Diplomatic Partnership Strategy Benefit Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

Author:
Churen Sun and Yaying Liu
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China’s partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China’s diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as noncentral firms and non-Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China’s diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China’s diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Foreign Direct Investment, Partnerships, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Risk, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4. Global Energy in Transition: How the EU Should Navigate New Realities and Risks

Author:
Andreas Goldthau
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Global energy demand is shifting to Southeast Asia. This new trade flow is altering market power because it not only follows natural economic development, but also results from strategic trade and investment policies that promote national interests. In this context, the EU needs to account for the geo-economic side effects of the new European Green Deal.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, European Union, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

5. Risk Realism: The Arms Control Endgame for North Korea Policy

Author:
Van Jackson
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security
Abstract:
While the reasons for seeking North Korean denuclearization are sensible, continuing to pursue that goal makes the United States and its allies less secure. In word and deed, North Korea has shown it has no interest in nuclear disarmament. Because denuclearization is antithetical to Kim Jong Un’s bottom line, U.S. attempts at diplomacy to that end are self-sabotaging. As long as disarmament of North Korea remains America’s professed goal, Kim Jong Un has every incentive either to avoid the negotiating process or favorably manipulate it at America’s expense—by stalling for time, making unfulfilled promises, and securing concessions without reciprocity. Worse, as the 2017 nuclear confrontation showed, making denuclearization an actionable goal of U.S. policy creates real risks of crisis instability—justifying extreme measures and extreme rhetoric in the name of what has become an extreme aim. But policymakers can avoid the pitfalls of the past by attempting something more realistic than denuclearization—an arms control approach to North Korea. The United States has significant unexploited margin to take diplomatic and political risks aimed at probing and potentially shifting North Korea’s approach to its nuclear arsenal. An arms control approach would seek to reorient U.S. North Korea policy to prioritize what matters most: reducing the risk of nuclear or conventional war without forsaking other U.S. interests at stake in Korea. Using diplomacy to enhance regional stability and foreclose the possibility of an avoidable nuclear war requires pursuing a negotiated outcome that both sides can accept, and that tests North Korea’s willingness to uphold commitments short of disarmament. U.S. policy often seeks to test North Korean intentions, but without offering the accommodations and concessions that would serve as a meaningful test. Remedying this problem through an arms control approach requires taking considerable unilateral actions consistent with U.S. interests before proceeding to a phased negotiating process.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Risk, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

6. Responses to Climate-related Security Risks: Regional Organizations in Asia and Africa

Author:
Florian Krampe, Roberta Scassa, and Giovanni Mitrotta
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The transnational character of climate-related security risks often goes beyond the capacity of national governments to respond adequately. As such, it creates challenges for and increases the relevance of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). It is, therefore, not only important to understand the climate-related security risks that regions are experiencing but also to analyse how regional IGOs are developing their capacities to deal with these risks. This SIPRI Insights presents a concise analysis of four regional IGOs—two in Asia and two in Africa. The main findings show that, in various ways, climate-related security risks have found their way into the IGOs’ policy frameworks and institutional discourse. Furthermore, it was found that both the regional security context and the regions’ vulnerability to climate change affect the framing of climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Asia, West Africa, and Southeast Asia

7. Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Sparse Evidence from South Asia and South East Asia

Author:
Florian Krampe and Pernilla Nordqvist
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The impacts of climate change are increasingly viewed as global security risks, which will have far-reaching implications for both human and renewable natural systems. Most climate–conflict research has focused on East Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This SIPRI Insights explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia. Although these regions have been greatly affected by both climate change and conflict, there have only been a small number of rigorous academic studies that focus on the climate–conflict relationship. While this constrains the ability to draw general conclusions, there is context-specific evidence that climate change can have an effect on the causes and dynamics of violent conflict in the region when: (a) it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups; (c) elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it displaces people and increases levels of migration. In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both regions is clear.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Conflict, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia