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201. South Korea's Election: What to Expect from President Lee

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 19 December 2007, South Koreans elected Lee Myung-bak as their president. Barring sensational developments in a scandal investigation that still dogs him, Lee, the candidate of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP or “Hannaradang”) will be inaugurated on 25 February 2008 to replace Roh Moo-hyun, who is limited by the constitution to a single five-year term. A former top executive of the Hyundai conglomerate, he has pledged to be an “economic president who will revive the economy with his practical business experience”. Although he has ideological differences with his liberal predecessor, he is unlikely to make dramatic changes in foreign or security policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

202. Elections, Democracy and Stability in Pakistan

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Musharraf faces the most serious challenge to almost eight years of military rule. Opposition has gathered momentum following his failed attempt to remove the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Moderate political parties, all segments of civil society and the public at large are vociferously demanding restoration of democracy and rule of law and the military's withdrawal from politics. The choice is not whether a transition will come but whether it will be peaceful and orderly, through free and fair elections, or violent. Musharraf and the high command are tempted to retain their power at all costs. Several of their options - particularly emergency - could portend disaster. Rigged or stalled elections would destabilise Pakistan, with serious international security consequences. Especially the U.S., needs to recognise its own interests are no longer served by military rule (if they ever really were) and use its considerable leverage to persuade the generals to return to the barracks and accept a democratic transition through free and fair parliamentary, followed by presidential, elections this year.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

203. Indonesia: How GAM Won in Aceh

Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When local elections were held in Aceh on 11 December 2006, conventional wisdom (shared by Crisis Group) was that candidates from the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) would not do well. They might pick up two or three of the nineteen district races, but the biggest prize – the provincial governorship – was almost certainly out of reach. The old Jakarta-linked parties would benefit from deep pockets, established structures and a split in the former insurgency's leadership. Polls just before formal campaigning began showed GAM's governor/deputy governor slate – Irwandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar – virtually out of contention. But GAM won overwhelmingly, in what an analyst called “a perfect storm between the fallout from the peace accord and the failure of political parties to understand the changing times”. The challenge now is to govern effectively and cleanly in the face of high expectations, possible old elite obstructionism and some GAM members' sense of entitlement that it is their turn for power and wealth.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

204. Nepal's Constitutional Process

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the formation of an interim legislature incorporating mainstream parties and Maoists, Nepal's peace process hinges on writing a constitution that permanently ends the conflict, addresses the widespread grievances that fuelled it and guards against the eruption of new violence. Most political actors have accepted the Maoist demand for a constituent assembly (CA) tasked with framing a new dispensation, although royalists are worried over the future of the monarchy, which has in effect been suspended. The major challenge is to maintain leadership-level consensus while building a broad-based and inclusive process that limits room for spoilers and ensures long-term popular legitimacy. Recent unrest in the Tarai plains illustrates the dangers of ignoring popular discontent. Key political actors need to prepare more seriously for the CA. Led by the newly established United Nations mission in Nepal (UNMIN), the international community should pressure all sides to abide by their stated commitments and global norms and provide technical assistance to the electoral process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Asia, Nepal, and United Nations

205. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby

Author:
Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

206. PolicyWatch #1301: Pakistan and the War on Terror

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, putting at risk, despite claims to the contrary, the upcoming January elections. Musharraf justified his move by citing an increase in "the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks." The action was taken despite recent pleas from U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, as well as Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command, who visited Musharraf on November 2. Instead of political stability in Pakistan, U.S. policymakers are now confronted with a more difficult battle against al-Qaeda in neighboring Afghanistan, a perhaps less secure Pakistani nuclear weapons arsenal, and a postponed democratic revival of the world's second most populous Muslim state.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia

207. Creating Competition: Patronage Politics and the PRI's Demise

Author:
Kenneth F. Greene
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Why do dominant parties persist in power for decades and under what conditions do challengers expand enough to beat them at the polls, thus transforming these systems into fully competitive democracies with turnover? Unlike in one - party regimes, the world's sixteen dominant party systems feature meaningful electoral competition; however, dominant parties have persisted despite enough social cleavages, permissive electoral institutions, negative retrospective evaluations of the incumbent's performance, and sufficient ideological space for challengers to occupy. I craft a resource theory of single - dominance that focuses on the incumbent's ability to divert public resources for partisan use. Using formal theory, I show how asymmetric resources and costs of participation force challengers to form as non - centrist and under - competitive parties. Only when these asymmetries decline do opposition parties expand. I test the theory's predictions using survey data of party elites in Mexico. I also extend the argument to Malaysia and Italy using aggregate data.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Malaysia, Asia, Italy, and Mexico

208. Bernard Schwartz Fellow Sadanand Dhume on Political Islam and Indonesia

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Sadanand Dhume, a Bernard Schwartz Fellow at Asia Society, is a journalist and writer with a long-standing interest in Asia. He has recently completed a book on the rise of radical Islam in Indonesia. As a former Indonesia correspondent of the Far Eastern Economic Review and The Asian Wall Street Journal in Jakarta, Sadanand covered Indonesia's economic, political, security and social scene. Before that he was the New Delhi bureau chief of FEER.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, New Delhi, and Southeast Asia

209. Interview with Ed Luce: Inspite of the Gods: The Rise of Modern India

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Edward Luce is the Washington bureau chief for the Financial Times. He was the paper's South Asia bureau chief, based in New Delhi, between 2001 and 2006. From 1999–2000, Luce worked in the Clinton administration as the speechwriter to Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. Educated at Oxford and married into an Indian family, Luce now lives in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Washington, India, Asia, and New Delhi

210. Olimpiadas y Copa Mundial de Fútbol: ¿Competencias deportivas o instrumentos políticos?

Author:
Karina Garcia
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the setting of the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup employing a geopolitical approach. To identify in which way these international sports events are geopolitical instruments of the International System, I present a revision of different elements involved in the selection of China and South Africa as respective hosts of the Olympic Games of 2008 and the World Cup of 2010, such as the motives, goals and possible benefits of these two countries. In this way, I sustain the thesis that the Olympic Games and the World Cup are political instruments used by the States to pursue their geopolitical interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Africa