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1. Net-Zero and Nonproliferation: Assessing Nuclear Power and Its Alternatives

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Six years ago, NPEC ran a mock execution of a law Congress passed in 1978 but that the Executive refused to implement —Title V of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of 1978. Title V called on the State and Energy Departments to conduct country-specific analyses of how developing states might best meet their energy needs without nuclear power. It also called for the creation of an energy Peace Corps and an assessment of what our government was spending on energy development aid-related projects. When NPEC started its efforts, the staff on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee asked to see what NPEC produced to use it to pressure the Executive finally to implement the law. NPEC commissioned a number of studies on how Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and Taiwan might best meet their energy requirements without nuclear power. The center also contracted studies on the history and intent of Title V and on what government programs were already in play that aligned with Title V‘s stated objectives. As soon as NPEC’s project was completed, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff prepared a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asking the Secretary finally to implement Title V and file the reports required by law. Then, something unexpected occurred. The committee’s legal counsel discovered that the Secretary was under no obligation to comply: Congress had eliminated Title V’s reporting requirements along with several hundred other Congressionally mandated reports back in 1995. Flummoxed, I quietly set the book manuscript aside. Why, then, release it today? Because it is again timely. In October, the Biden Administration announced it is still considering extending civilian nuclear cooperation with Riyadh that would allow the Kingdom to enrich uranium — a process that can bring states within weeks of acquiring the bomb. Administration officials no longer question if Saudi Arabia really needs nuclear energy to meet its energy requirements. Shouldn’t they? Meanwhile, Taiwan’s presidential election this coming Saturday will, among other things, decide if Taiwan will build more nuclear reactors or not. Again, is new nuclear Taiwan’s best energy bet? As for China, the Pentagon has become increasingly concerned that the two “peaceful” fast breeder reactors and plutonium reprocessing plants Beijing is building will be used to make hundreds of bombs worth of weapons plutonium. One of the two fast breeder reactors is already operating. The question these dangerous nuclear activities raise is just how necessary they are to meet China’s energy requirements. Then, there’s Iran, which is intent on building reactors of Iranian design. It plans on expanding its nuclear power program from roughly one gigawatt electrical capacity to 11. Given Iran’s renewables potential and oil and gas reserves, how much sense does this make? Finally, in its efforts to achieve net zero, the Biden Administration has joined 20 other nations in pledging to triple global nuclear generation by 2050. Again, how practical is this? This volume’s aim is to help provide answers. Of course, in light of how long our government has ignored Title V, demanding it be implemented now would be odd. Creating a clean energy Peace Corps, comparing the costs of different types of energy, and trying to determine what investments would reduce emissions quickest and cheapest, however, all should be discussed. It’s my hope that the release of Net-Zero and Nonproliferation: Assessing Nuclear Power and Its Alternatives today might prompt such discussion.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, Legislation, Energy, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Taiwan, Asia, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

2. Geoeconomic fragmentation and net-zero targets

Author:
Shirin Hakim and Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The second half of the twentieth century experienced significant economic integration. International trade, cross-border migration, capital flows, and technological diffusion increased per capita incomes across countries and reduced global poverty. However, events such as the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic—all against the backdrop of escalating great power rivalry and tensions between the United States and China—have demonstrated the rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a growing numberof world leaders have addressed the impacts of GEF on global energy and agricultural markets. For one, higher and increasingly volatile food and energy prices have made it increasingly difficult for developing nations to prioritize environmental concerns and implement sustainable development initiatives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

3. Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia's Industrial Giants

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Asia’s transformation in recent decades into a global manufacturing hub has fueled economic growth and lifted millions out of poverty. However, this success has also massively increased the region’s emissions footprint, making it essential for Asia’s industries to rapidly transition to green technologies and processes. “Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants” assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green hydrogen (H2) demand in Asia’s four largest economies: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The report, which was commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero and carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, highlights the role of manufacturers as agents of change in the Asia’s net zero transition. The study focuses on the role of green H2 in three priority industries — steel, ammonia, and methanol — under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis. Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the collective market potential of electrolyzers for these industries is expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The report offers a suite of recommendations for policymakers, industry players, investors, and think thanks aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.
Topic:
Industry, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

4. Getting Asia to Net Zero

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In March 2023, the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a key report stating that the Earth has already warmed by 1.1°C and that no additional fossil fuel infrastructure can be built and used while still holding warming to under 1.5°C. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for countries to hit “fast-forward” on their net zero commitments, with developed economies to aim for net zero by 2040, and emerging economies to target 2050. The Getting Asia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero presents another compelling reason for the Asia-Pacific region to align behind achieving net zero emissions by mid-century: taking more ambitious climate action and reducing emissions sooner could enhance the region’s economic and social development. The report draws on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that examines the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of the Asia-Pacific’s options to implement its current and more ambitious mitigation targets, as well as how variations in the power sector mix could enhance development while meeting climate goals. According to the analysis, hitting net zero emissions by 2050 could increase the Asia-Pacific's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 6.3 percent above projected levels and generate as many as 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s, as compared to the 5 percent GDP boost and 25.1 million additional jobs that current climate commitments could generate. A net zero 2050 pathway could also lead to energy cost savings of $270 billion for local households and improve the region's trade balance by as much as $827 billion, largely due to a reduction in fossil fuel dependence. Prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could help the Asia-Pacific avoid $2.2 trillion in investment requirements. The report also recognizes potential challenges associated with the transition to net zero and proposes solutions, such as facilitating the flow of international finance to mitigate adverse impacts on household spending and developing comprehensive plans to help displaced fossil fuel workers take advantage of new employment opportunities. In 2023, Asia has another compelling opportunity to globally step up on climate. A confluence of major multilateral processes will take place in the Asian region, including the G7 in Japan, the G20 in India, and the 28th UN Climate Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Group. Moreover, the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in December 2023 will assess the global state of progress and remaining gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The commissioned modeling shows that aligning the Asia-Pacific’s climate ambition with a 1.5°C trajectory is not only possible — it could also be the more beneficial path forward for the region.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

5. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The Asian region is warming faster than the global average, making it comparatively vulnerable to the effects of climate change. At the same time, Asia remains a disproportionate contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, with its annual emissions now accounting for more than half of the global total. Yet countries are reluctant to make ambitious climate pledges unless they are confident that they can secure the finance needed to implement such targets. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic, unsustainable debt, and climate change itself have complicated the amount of finance that will be needed and countries’ ability to access it. In light of these challenges, a new report on behalf of the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero articulates a regional vision for Asia’s unique climate finance needs and what needs to be done to address them. Progress & Priorities for Asia’s Climate Finance en Route to COP28 identifies priority actions to assemble the finance to get Asia to net zero by mid-century while empowering the region to prosper and thrive through the clean transition. The 28th United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) next month will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Dubai on behalf of the UN’s Asia-Pacific Group. Action to meet Asia’s climate finance needs could help unlock the ambition levels needed to set the world on track, especially as countries look to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 with targets out to 2035 and even 2040. Lack of finance should not be a barrier to Asia’s climate action. Instead, sufficient finance could be the key to unlocking the “course correction” needed for Asia to help the world meet the Paris Agreement’s goals — and for ensuring a more sustainable, livable, and interconnected region and world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia

6. Benchmarking Asia's Climate Action

Author:
Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the source of over half of the world's annual greenhouse gas emissions, Asia is uniquely positioned to influence global climate outcomes. With the United Nations (UN) Climate Ambition Summit fast approaching on September 20 and the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake due at COP28 in December 2023, this year offers critical leadership opportunities for accelerating Asia’s climate action. The Benchmarking Asia's Climate Action report on behalf of the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero analyzes Asia's progress in relation to UN Secretary-General António Guterres' Acceleration Agenda, which aims to accelerate climate action to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that over three-quarters of Asia's emissions are now covered by net zero targets that are enshrined into Long-Term Strategies under the Paris Agreement. In addition, 16 Asian economies already have net zero targets in law or policy documents that align with the Acceleration Agenda. This group encompasses some notable emitters, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates, the host of this year's COP28 climate talks. Yet no developed economies in Asia have moved their net zero targets earlier than midcentury to align with the Acceleration Agenda. Eight countries' targets still lag behind midcentury, and a further 13 countries have yet to propose any sort of net zero target. The report also highlights areas of progress and critical gaps in Acceleration Agenda priorities apart from net zero, including preparing updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and presenting energy transition plans. Amongst a group of Asian G20 members and other key Asian emitters that together account for almost half of global emissions, the vast majority of emissions are not yet covered by absolute emissions reductions targets in current NDCs. This means that even if countries' targets are achieved, these emissions — over 40% of the global total — could still continue increasing between now and 2030. Meanwhile, the UN's climate science body finds that global GHG emissions must peak by 2025 in order to achieve both the 1.5°C and 2°C goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Taking more ambitious climate action sooner could enhance Asia's economic and social development. Modeling previously commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero shows that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 could boost GDP in the Asia-Pacific region by as much as 6.3% above the levels predicated under a baseline scenario, while creating up to 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
Asia