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1. The New “Rare Metal Age”: New Challenges and Implications of Critical Raw Materials Supply Security in the 21st Century

Author:
Frank Umbach
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
When Beijing threatened to restrict China’s export of rare earths (widely used in numerous important civilian and military technologies) to the United States at the end of May 2019, the world was reminded of China’s rare earths export disruption in the autumn of 2010 amid a maritime territorial conflict between China and Japan. In the past few years, the worldwide attention cast on the future supply security of rare earths and other critical raw materials has increased in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries owing to the global expansion of “green technologies” (including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles and batteries, and smart grids) and digitalisation as well as equipment and devices embedded with artificial intelligence. In this paper, the term “critical raw materials” (CRMs) refers to raw materials critical to industries that are also import-dependent on them, and to new technologies which often have no viable substitutes and whose supply, besides being constrained by limited recycling rates and options, is also dominated by one or a few suppliers. CRMs include rare earth elements (REEs), which comprise 17 different elements (see Figure 4). The global race for the most advanced technologies dependent on CRMs has intensified the competition for access to as well as strategic control of REEs, lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and other CRMs. This working paper analyses the global supply and demand balance of three CRMs (REEs, lithium and cobalt, the latter two being major raw materials for batteries) in the foreseeable future and whether ASEAN countries can play a role as producers and suppliers of CRMs. It also examines potential counterstrategies for mitigating and reducing the global demand for CRMs, such as substitution, reduced use of CRMs, and recycling and re-use.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Digital Economy, Green Technology, and Metals
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Asia

2. Water Security in Southeast Asia: Regional, National, and Sub-national Challenges

Author:
Christopher Chen and Angelo Paolo L. Trias
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Water is a fundamental element of survival and growth on Earth. As a prerequisite for life and an important economic resource, it supports all aspects of everyday activity. Ensuring that water is available, accessible and safe for current and future generations is among humanity’s greatest challenge. One of the most important Non-Traditional Security (NTS) challenges facing Southeast Asia is water security. This NTS Insight explores water security issues in Southeast Asia and examines the ways it threatens states and societies. While water security challenges are not new in the region, the nature of issues are changing, making it important to assess how such threats are defined, negotiated, and managed. The NTS governance process begins with identifying and understanding NTS challenges, and ways they are securitised. By looking at case studies at the sub-national, national and regional level, this paper seeks to present some of the major water security issues in the region, how they affect states and societies, and why they merit urgent attention and resources. This Insight explains why addressing sub-national water security challenges require consultative and participatory approaches that facilitate open democratic dialogue and local collective action. It will also lay out how deliberate planning, careful implementation, and judicious monitoring of water management policies are needed at both the national and regional levels. Further, while it is not easy to reconcile developmental goals with environmental protection, the gravity of the situation requires more preventive diplomacy and subregional collaborative mechanisms which are geared towards averting water conflicts. Overall, it aims to help formal and informal NTS actors working through various channels to gain further understanding of emerging water security challenges in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

3. Economic Priorities for a Sustainable Peace Agreement in Yemen

Author:
Zaid Ali Basha and Rafat Al-Akhali
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The sustainability of a peace agreement in Yemen depends on two critical economic issues. First, in a conflict that is largely over access to resources, the issues of distribution, control, and sharing of those resources can make or break peace. Therefore, these issues must be addressed head-on during negotiations. Second, where peace agreements lack provisions that create overall economic stability, warfare can resume during the fragile implementation period. The fears over the resumption of conflict after signing a peace agreement are substantiated by several historical events in Yemen, such as the failure of the GCC Initiative.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Natural Resources, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

4. China’s Monopoly on Rare Earth Elements—and Why We Should Care

Author:
June Teufel Dreyer
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
According to geologists, rare earths are not rare, but they are precious. The answer to what appears to be a riddle lies in accessibility. Comprising 17 elements that are used extensively in both consumer electronics and national defense equipment, rare earth elements (REEs) were first discovered and put into use in the United States. However, production gradually shifted to China, where lower labor costs, less concern for environmental impacts, and generous state subsidies enabled the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to account for 97 percent of global production. In 1997, Magniquench, then-America’s leading rare earths company, was sold to an investment consortium headed by Archibald Cox, Jr., son of the same-named Watergate prosecutor, with two Chinese state-owned metals firms, San Huan New Materials and China National Nonferrous Metals Import and Export Company. The chairman of San Huan, son-in-law of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, became chairman of the company. Magniquench was shut down in the United States, moved to China, and reopened in 2003, where it fit in well with Deng’s Super 863 Program to acquire cutting-edge technologies for military applications, including “exotic materials.” This left Molycorp as the last remaining major rare earths producer in the United States until its collapse in 2015.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Exports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5. Sustainable Water Resource Development Scenarios and Water Diplomacy in the Lower Mekong Basin: Policy Implications

Author:
Han Phoumin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper uses the current results of the Basin-wide water resource development scenario assessment of the Council Study of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) to analyse potentials benefits for economic development to meet the ambitious goal of the riparian states of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) countries for poverty reduction and, at the same time, analyse the risks of potential trans-boundary trade-off, which will require an appropriate mechanism to be in place. The scenario assessment results present both opportunities and risks associated with different levels of water resource development in the Mekong countries and the implications of the water diplomacy for both the lower and uper mekong basin. All scenarios could be broadly placed into three main categories with different timeframes and assumptions. Scenario M1 – the early development scenario – characterises baseline water resource developments in 2007; Scenario M2 – the medium-term definite future scenario – characterises existing, under-construction, and firmly-committed water related developments in 2020; and Scenario M3 – the long-term planned development scenario – characterises the planned water developments in 2040 in addition to those assigned for 2020 for implementation over the following 2 decades. The main scenarios aggregate combinations of water resource developments enabling the cumulative assessment of environmental, social, and economic effects in the Member Countries. The Scenarios will bring both economic opportunities in terms of benefits from water resource development as well as risks related to biodiversity changes, the environmental damages and losses of livelihoods, and the dependency on the natural resources of the Mekong River. Each of the scenario results presents the trans-boundary trade-off which requires appropriate skills, capacities of the LMB riparian countries, and water diplomacy to discuss and negotiate for the solutions. Finally, this paper provides some suggestions and policy implications that could be possible mechanisms and solutions for sustainable water resource development in the Mekong region.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Laos

6. Infrastructure development in the Northeast: Hydropower, natural resources, legal and institutional frameworks and compliance

Author:
Manju Menon
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In 2000, the central government declared Northeast India as India’s hydropower hub. Over 165 large dam projects were proposed to come up in the region. These projects were held as crucial to India’s energy and environmental security as well as the economic development of the country’s marginalised northeastern borderlands.However, nearly two decades on, this proposal to regulate the region's water resources remains unimplemented. In addition, the projects have generated a lot of public opposition in Arunachal Pradesh where most of these dams are supposed to be situated, and in the downstream Brahmaputra valley of Assam. This article will look into the government's hype and failure to construct hydropower dams in the Northeast region. It points to the need for a reflexive political decision on water resource management from the BJP-led governments in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and at the Centre.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

7. Synthesis Report on State of Water: A Look at the Legal and Regulatory Framework Governing Water Services across Jurisdictions

Author:
Maanav Kumar and Parag Mohanty
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This study looks at the development of legal and regulatory framework governing drinking water and sanitation services in South Africa, England and United States. Around 780 million worldwide do not have access to clean drinking water and almost 2.5 billion people lack access to improved sanitation according to data published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In such a situation, it becomes extremely important to study the legal and regulatory measures used internationally to control, manage and improve these resources. This study, covering South Africa, England and USA, sets out to identify, comprehend and analyze these legal frameworks and structures; examine the control exercised by national, state/provincial as well as municipal governments over water and sanitation-related questions; and the responsive measures being taken by them to preserve the water resources and their quality for future generations. The authors have observed that in presence of varying geographical, historical and social factors, while it would be impossible to compare each model against the other on the basis of merit, it becomes increasingly important for governments to balance the individual’s right to water with the planet’s ecological balance.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Natural Resources, Water, Law, Regulation, Legislation, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Asia, and Global Focus

8. China and the “Near-Arctic:” An Opportunity Lost Over 150 Years Ago

Author:
Barry Zellen
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
With Greenland making front page news, the world’s attention is turned to the Arctic. And yet, this region has been the focus of increasingly consequential geopolitical competition for centuries, whether for furs, whales, fish stocks, gold, oil, strategic-military corridors, or (particularly as the ice has retreated) maritime trade routes. In recent years, China has articulated an invigorated vision of Arctic engagement as part of its Polar Silk Road strategy—a component of its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In its 2018 white paper on Arctic policy, China described itself as a “near-Arctic” state, a definition that has proven controversial and that, earlier this year, was publicly rejected by U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo at an Arctic Council (AC) ministerial: “Beijing claims to be a ‘Near-Arctic State,’ yet the shortest distance between China and the Arctic is 900 miles. There are only Arctic States and Non-Arctic States. No third category exists, and claiming otherwise entitles China to exactly nothing.” Such a visible diplomatic smackdown in a forum better known for its consensus governance and multilateral approach to Arctic issues generated headlines (and some indignation) worldwide. But Pompeo is right—China cannot reasonably be considered a “near-Arctic” state, owing to its lack of geographical, climatic, and cultural attributes of the Arctic. What kind of seat at which tables a state receives is determined, to a significant degree, by its claims to have a say in the region (combined with its capacity to persuade other states of the merits of its claims), so Beijing’s assertion of near-Arctic statehood weighs on the balance of power and diplomacy in the Arctic region.
Topic:
Power Politics, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Arctic

9. Wild Growth: An Assessment of Erdenes Mongol

Author:
Andrew Bauer and Dorjdari Namkhaijantsan
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Erdenes Mongol is Mongolia's most influential state-owned mining enterprise. It was established in 2006 to represent the government of Mongolia's interests in strategic mines, manage mineral licenses and promote the mining sector. In recent years Erdenes Mongol has evolved into a complex conglomerate with interests in many sectors, including unconventional oil and gas, roads, hospitality, power generation, steel, and asset management. The company's expansion represents an implicit government choice to invest in specific sectors rather than others, such as education, healthcare or renewable energy. Erdenes Mongol does not publish financial information on most of its subsidiaries and joint ventures. However, many are unprofitable. Those that are profitable, such as the Tavan Tolgoi coal project, have yet to pay any dividends to the state treasury. The Government of Mongolia may wish to consider several reforms, such as: (1) Enacting a new state-owned enterprise or Erdenes Mongol-specific law; (2) Clarifying the company's financial and governance relationship with subsidiaries; (3) Performing project-by-project market assessments in order to determine which assets to purchase and sell; (4) Developing clear criteria and an open process for appointment and dismissal of board members and managers; and, (5) Requiring greater public disclosures and audits, especially of subsidiaries and joint ventures.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Business, Mining, and Trade
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

10. How and Why the Myanmar Government Should Publish Petroleum and Mining Contracts

Author:
Sebastian Sahla, Hosana Chay, and Robert Pitman
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Contract disclosure is a growing global norm. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) board agreed to require all member governments to disclose the contracts they sign with oil, gas and mining companies beginning in January 2021. Around the world governments, companies and civil society are increasingly advocating for disclosure. In Myanmar, progress has been extremely slow. Despite civil society activists and several major investors supporting reforms, the government has not disclosed any petroleum or mining contracts so far. With new licenses expected to be issued in the petroleum, minerals and gemstone sectors, the Myanmar government should act now to keep pace with a global trend.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Regulation, Negotiation, Legislation, Transparency, and Contracts
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Mongolia, Asia, Sierra Leone, Mexico, Myanmar, and Cameroon