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71. Effective Rates of Protection in a World With Non-Tariff Measures and Supply Chains: Evidence from ASEAN

Author:
Ben Shepherd
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The concept of effective rate of protection expresses protection on a sector’s final output relative to protection affecting its inputs. As such, it is well adapted to analysing the effects of trade policy from a supply chain standpoint. This paper makes two contributions to the literature on effective rates of protection. First, it draws on the literature on trade in value added to highlight an alternative to the traditional measure that better accounts for supply chain trade by considering both direct and indirect input use. Second, it includes data on ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures, which are increasingly important as trade policy instruments. In an analysis covering 17 aggregate goods sectors, I find that average tariff only effective rates of protection in ASEAN averaged 6.9% and ranged from zero to 23.4% in 2018. By contrast, effective rates including non-tariff measures averaged 14.0% and ranged from –6.2% to 44.0%. While patterns of escalation and even effective taxation differ substantially across sectors, most countries practice a tariff and NTM trade policy that is broadly neutral between input and output sectors, but which causes low to moderate isolation from world markets. Given the complexity of tariffs and NTMs from a supply chain perspective, there would likely be reductions in economic waste accompanying substantial simplification.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Protectionism, Non-Tariff Measures, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

72. Reconciling Tax and Trade Rules in the Digitalised Economy: Challenges for ASEAN and East Asia

Author:
Jane Kelsey
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As the digital economy expands in scale, scope, and form it poses major challenges for public revenue and tax policy and administration in Asia and other parts of the global South. When attempts led by developed countries at the OECD-led Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) to agree on new norms for taxing digital giants like Facebook, Google, and Amazon stalled, individual countries, including a number of developing countries in Asia, began developing their own responses, notably the adoption of digital services taxes. High-level compromises have recently been announced at the OECD, but the details are yet to come and are not expected to address the needs of developing countries to effectively tax the activities of digital giants operating from offshore. As countries seek effective and workable means to tax the digitalised economy, existing and proposed international rules on digital trade in free trade agreements, and plurilateral moves to develop electronic commerce rules in the World Trade Organization, may fetter their ability to do so. To date, very little attention has been paid in trade negotiations to the consequences of these developments for countries’ tax regimes. Nor have the adequacy, effectiveness, and workability of the tax exceptions in trade and investment agreements been properly re-assessed. Many governments are only becoming aware that trade rules may constrains their ability to regulate the (poorly understood and fast moving) digital domain after they have signed up to them. A series of investigations by the US government under Section 301 of the US Trade Act 1974 into digital services taxes, including those adopted by India and proposed by Indonesia, provides a real-world basis on which to assess how binding and enforceable digital trade rules might be used to challenge digital tax measures at the unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral levels. In highlighting these risks, the paper aims to provide a framework for the tax and trade divisions of governments in ASEAN and East Asia to reflect together on the potential for proposed digital trade rules to impact negatively on their public revenue.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, Tax Systems, Commerce, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

73. The EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment: Lessons Learnt for Indonesia

Author:
Yan Lili Ing and Junianto James Losarili
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) and China have recently reached an agreement: the EU–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). As one of the most recent investment agreements concluded by the EU, the paper aims to assess specific concessions made in the agreement, and provides lessons learnt for Indonesia on the ongoing negotiations of the Indonesia–EU free trade agreement, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU CEPA). The paper will present an overview of the main areas covered under the CAI, assess the potential impacts of the CAI on EU investment into Indonesia, and set out lessons that can be learnt from the CAI.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Indonesia, and Asia

74. COVID-19, Air Transportation, and International Trade in the ASEAN+5 Region

Author:
Anming Zhang, Xiaoqian Sun, Sebastian Wandelt, Yahua Zhang, Shiteng Su, and Ronghua Shen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper provides an in-depth description of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its interactions with air transportation in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 region, and then links the changes in air connectivity to trade using a gravity regression model. We find that almost all the countries probably reacted too late in their decision to reduce flights in the early stage of the pandemic. As the pandemic evolved, most countries have significantly cut the number of flight connections, especially international flights. The reduced connectivity is found to have a significantly negative impact on trade for time-sensitive merchandise that is essential to consumers and businesses. This points to the importance of the region seeking alternative arrangements to restore air connectivity. We offer a way to construct optimal travel bubbles by using risk indexes introduced here. Other policy issues such as uniform standards and regulations, and regional ‘open skies’, are also discussed.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

75. The Trade Restrictiveness Index and Its Impact on Trade Performance in Selected East Asian Countries

Author:
Norlin Khalid, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, Tamat Sarmidi, Sufian Jusoh, Faliq Razak, and Mohd Helmi Ali
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the effect of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in selected East Asian countries. In doing so, we first estimate the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of NTMs and construct an augmented trade restrictiveness index (ATRI) by measuring the overall external regulations imposed by importing countries. Second, we analyse the effect of the AVE and trade restrictiveness index (TRI) of importing nations on the exports of various sub-sector products for each country in selected East Asian countries. Based on a standard gravity model framework, we perform a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression at the sectoral level (Harmonized System 2-digit) for total exports and major sub-sectors (agri-food, health, logistics, and manufacturing). The findings show that the ATRI has a negative and significant relationship towards bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and logistics sub-sectors. The negative impacts of the ATRI also highlight that trade barriers play a significant role in bilateral exports. NTM restrictions (proxied by the calculated AVE of NTMs) imposed by importing countries have mixed results for technical and non-technical measures. Where technical measures have negative and significant impacts on bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and health sub-sectors. This implies that implementation of technical NTMs such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barrier to trade (TBT) measures in importing nations adversely affect bilateral exports for these sub-sectors. This is in line with our hypothesis, as exporters may face difficulties in meeting the current NTM specifications, leading to lower bilateral exports. In addition, the results show that most trade agreements have a positive and significant relationship with ASEAN and East Asia countries’ bilateral exports, suggesting that free trade agreements enhance trade between countries.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

76. Regulatory Distance, Margins of Trade, and Regional Integration: The Case of the ASEAN+5

Author:
Chandran Govindaraju, Neil Foster-McGregor, and Evelyn Shyamala Devadason
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper measures regulatory distance in non-tariff measures (NTMs) to examine the regulatory distance patterns and how the margins of trade respond to regulatory distance for the ASEAN+5 economies (the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Member States plus Australia, China, India, Japan and New Zealand). It decomposes the margins of trade and regulatory distance by sector (agriculture and manufacturing) and NTM type (technical, non-technical, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBTs), and pre-shipment inspections and other measures) for the 15 countries. At the country level, the results indicate a varying regulatory distance amongst the ASEAN+5 countries. Regulatory implementation also varies by sector and by the type of measure. Within sectors, SPS regulatory distance is higher in the agriculture sector, while for manufacturing, the regulatory distance in TBTs is higher. Notably, few countries recorded a higher regulatory distance for non-technical measures and pre-shipment inspections. Interestingly, for the ASEAN region, there seems to be no evidence supporting a reduction in regulatory distance from 2015 to 2018, despite efforts to harmonise NTMs since 2015. The results indicate that regulatory distance largely has a trade-reducing effect along the trade margins within ASEAN+5 bilateral trade. Technical measures have a greater trade-reducing effect than other measures along extensive and intensive trade margins – specifically SPS in the agriculture sector and TBTs in the manufacturing sector. Notably, there is also evidence of non-technical measures and pre-shipments and other formalities impacting trade along extensive margins, despite efforts to establish trade facilitation. The paper also describes some policy implications.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

77. Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India

Author:
Yasuyuki Todo, Keita Oikawa, Masahito Ambashi, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Using a unique firm-level data set from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India collected from November 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines how the robustness and resilience of supply chain links – i.e. maintaining links and substituting another for a disrupted partner, respectively – were determined when firms faced economic shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Focusing on the role of the characteristics of firms’ supply chains, we find that homophily, i.e. the tendency to form a group with similar agents, was often associated with the robustness of supply chain links, most likely because of the strength of homophilous ties. In particular, when a foreign-owned firm had a supply chain link with a firm located in the same country as its home country, the link was quite robust. We also find that the geographic diversity of customers and suppliers creates resilience of supply chains. When the demand or supply from a partner of a firm was disrupted because of COVID-19, the firm likely mitigated the damage from the disruption through substitution of partners if its supply chains were well diversified across countries. In addition, larger or younger firms tended to be resilient and robust. The robustness and resilience of supply chains are found to have led to higher performance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

78. China's Ties with Southeast Asia : From Green Shoots to Sustained Recovery

Author:
Kensuke Tanaka
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

79. What Is Drawing Xi’s China and Lukashenko’s Belarus Closer?

Author:
Solomiya Kharchuk
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
What are the primary drivers of the relationship between Xi’s China and Lukashenko’s Belarus? The present research paper uses the historical process-tracing method to provide an answer to this question. Furthermore, it uses quantitative data analysis regarding the economic intercourse between Belarus and China. It examines whether China’s opposition regarding the unipolar American-led world order and Belarus’s security concerns are the primary drivers of the relationship between Minsk and Beijing. The present article concludes that the congruence of beliefs and Minsk’s desire to ensure survival are drawing the two countries closer together. China’s new strategy encompasses Beijing’s increasing participation in world affairs. China opposes the world order led by a single hegemon, the United States of America. In the interim, Belarus, a relatively weak state insignificant in the global balance of power, shares Beijing’s beliefs about the desired nature of the contemporary world order. However, the Belarusian economy’s condition, which relies heavily on external funding, does not allow the economic cooperation between Minsk and Beijing to thrive. China gradually increases its engagement with Belarus, yet it obscures its ambitions, for Minsk lies in Moscow’s sphere of influence.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

80. Trade and Supply Chain Issues for Taiwan and Australia

Author:
Bryce Wakefield
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Covid-19 has disrupted supply chains around the world, while political movements in the United States and Europe that predate the pandemic have raised the prospect that we are once more living in a world where regionalism and nationalism trump global integration of trade. China, meanwhile, has made it clear that it sees trade as a tool in its political statecraft, a factor that has been keenly felt in the region. Nervous actors in the Indo-Pacific are looking to diversify their trade away from China, but do nations in the region have many choices? What does this mean for Taiwan-Australia trade relations? How does Taiwan’s ambiguous position in the international system relate to recent trade agreements? Where do Taiwan and Australia, as mid-level powers, sit within the global trading order?
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia