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2. Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
- Author:
- Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Security, Deterrence, and Cross-Strait Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
3. China’s security relations with Africa in the 21st century
- Author:
- Monika Magdalena Krukowska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The paper examines China’s increasing security interests in Africa. It seeks to understand the nature and scope of Chinese engagement in peace and security issues on the continent based on its engagement in international and domestic (African) politics. Through literature analysis and logical reasoning, the author intends to define the implications of China’s new role as a security provider. The paper is based on desk research using primary and secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis of official documents, academic research, and media sources. The methods include literature analysis, logical reasoning, statistical research, comparative analysis, and the inductive method to build general theorems. The paper analyses aspects of China’s security engagement on the African continent: its participation in the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, small arms exports, and Beijing’s sharing of technology with African partners. China’s engagement in Africa’s security helps to advance its vital economic and political interests, with limited impact on African security. Key lessons for African partners are offered. The last decades have seen an extraordinary increase in China’s economic and political ties with Africa. Security cooperation followed massive Chinese investments and thousands of Chinese nationals working on the continent. China’s security engagement in Africa protects Beijing’s interests regarding access to resources, markets, political influence, and social credibility. It has little to do with a benevolent will to help Africa deal with instability or economic underdevelopment. African partners must make necessary efforts to avoid further dependence on China.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Asia
4. Not Just Boots on the Beach: How China Can Use Deception, Confusion, and Incrementalism to Change the Status Quo on Taiwan
- Author:
- Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands explore four coercive approaches that Beijing could use to change the status quo around Taiwan short of outright invasion or blockade. The paper also highlights the serious challenges Washington and Taipei must address to have a ready response to these scenarios.
- Topic:
- International Security, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
5. Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security
- Author:
- Tong Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Decision-Making
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
6. The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation
- Author:
- Rachel E. Brooks, Taro Nishikawa, Ryohei Suzuki, Jonathon Marek, and Koutaka Yuichiro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Pacific Forum, like the US government and much of the international security community, considers the information space a crucial theater in the United States’ ongoing great power competition with the People’s Republic of China and Russia. To meet the need for fresh policy ideas, as well as Pacific Forum’s long-standing mandate to train the next generation of policy professions in the US and its partners, we present to you this volume. In it, readers will find the finalists of our Young Professionals Essay Contest, as part of our ongoing program, The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation. Open to nationals of the two countries, the contest received numerous entries and the final decision was not an easy one—especially when comparing our finalists. On the Japanese side, Yuichiro Kotaka raises the threat posed by generative AI and poses solutions for how governments can address it, while Ryohei Suzuki suggests putting the public broadcaster NHK to use. On the US side, Jonathon Marek raises the alarm over the threat posed by authoritarian governments who have recognized disinformation as a valuable tool, while Thomas Ramage offers suggestion on how the alliance itself can address the threat that disinformation poses. However, our committee ultimately settled on two essays that stood out above the rest: on the Japanese side, Taro Nishikawa’s essay on counter-disinformation campaigns in the age of cognitive warfare was singled out for addressing the current discourse within China and for its focus on US-Japan responses. Among the American entries, Rachel Brooks’ take on how countering disinformation can be part of school curriculums received praise for its originality, creativity, and for providing both an educator’s narrative and an educator’s solution. We thank all of our contestants for their participation, and for contributing potential solutions in this age of information competition.
- Topic:
- International Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
7. Analyzing China’s Escalation after Taiwan President Tsai’s Transit through the United States
- Author:
- Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Samantha Lu, Hannah Price, and Matthew Slade
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- As Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen transited through the United States in March and April 2023, China embraced significant military and diplomatic measures to coerce and punish Taiwan and, to some extent, the United States. This is reminiscent of Chinese actions after then-speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, though there were differences between China’s behavior. While some elements of China’s actions in April 2023 appear less escalatory than those in August 2022, there was considerable continuity and even progression with respect to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations, tactics, and reach vis-à-vis Taiwan. This brief analyzes Chinese activities in August 2022 and April 2023 and explores the factors impacting Beijing’s decisionmaking.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
8. Climate Security and Role of Women in ASEAN
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Climate change processes are acknowledged as critical components of regional and international security, and ASEAN should mobilise all segments of its population and existing plans of action to tackle this challenge. The role of women in ASEAN’s peace and security including climate change should be acknowledged and strengthened systematically. The ASEAN Women, Peace and Security Regional Plan of Action offers such an opportunity for increased regional cooperation and resilience.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, International Security, Women, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
9. Inside China’s Techno-Security State
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Industrial Policy, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
10. China’s Shifting Approach to Alliance Politics
- Author:
- John Van Oudenaren
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has abstained from seeking formal alliances. Chinese leaders often invoke the principle of advancing state-to-state relations through “dialogue rather than confrontation [and] partnerships rather than alliances” (对话不对抗、结伴不结盟, duihua bu duikang, jieban bu jiemeng) (Xinhuanet, June 23; Gov.cn, November 22, 2021). The PRC highlights its multitude of strategic partnerships and lack of official alliances as emblematic of its self-proclaimed anti-hegemonic approach to international relations, which is predicated on inclusivity, mutual respect and “win-win cooperation.” Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda regularly juxtaposes this purportedly positive-sum approach to world politics with its stock depiction of the United States as a decaying but violent empire, which practices a ruthless brand of power politics based on zero-sum thinking. For the CCP, America’s “cold war mentality” manifests in its global military presence and formal security alliances in Europe and Asia, which Beijing characterizes as “closed and exclusive cliques” (PRC Foreign Ministry [FMPRC], April 12; China Brief, October 22, 2021).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Security, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia