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191. U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Dennis C. Blair, Carla A. Hills, and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Vietnam

192. EU Policy in the South Causasus: A View from Azerbaijan

Author:
Elkhan Nuriyev
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Since the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the EU in January 2007, the South Caucasus has become a region of direct concern to the EU's strategy in its wider neighbourhood. This study examines the trends affecting EU policies in the South Caucasus, with a specific focus on EU–Azerbaijan relations. It argues that in the three main areas in which Azerbaijan affects Europe's interests – cooperation in the energy sector, democratisation and conflict resolution – so far the EU has engaged well on a regional energy strategy, but less so on democratic reforms and almost not at all on conflict settlement in Nagorno Karabakh. The study concludes that the EU needs to balance its involvement in all three areas, especially given the deeper democratic changes it wishes to see in Azerbaijan, with a list of recommendations for doing so.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Azerbaijan

193. A Collapsing Façade – The Russian Duma Election in perspective

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Duma election and its results reinforce the prevailing undemocratic trends in Russia. The changes in electoral laws, the election campaign and its biased coverage in the Russian media, the Russian authorities' hostile attitude towards international election observation and the so-called Putin's Plan leave very little hope of democratic pluralism developing in Russia anytime soon. Russia's political system has been built gradually over the years. The system aims at controlling the competition for power and securing the political elite's interests. The system is characterised by non-transparent and manipulated political processes, misleading doublespeak on democratic norms, and the misuse of soft and hard administrative resources. Putin's overwhelming popularity does not compensate for the lack of democratic accountability. Likewise, his possible premiership would not strengthen parliamentarism in Russia because the decision is driven by instrumentalism towards political institutions. Instead, it would create a dangerous precedent for an ad hoc separation of power. Western actors should be more aware that the stability that Putin is often praised for bringing about is not build on solid ground, and they should change their policies accordingly. Promoting democracy – and thus longterm stability – in Russia is in western actors' interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

194. Legacy Agenda: The Future of the Bush Doctrine, Part I

Author:
Thomas Donnelly
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
With the recent announcements of a new strategy for Iraq and a commitment to begin increasing the size of U.S. land forces, the White House has taken two important steps to ensure that the tenets of the Bush Doctrine endure beyond the end of President George W. Bush's administration. Since 9/11 and indeed since the beginning of this administration, strategy has been made by an odd combination of ad hoc improvisation and expansive rhetoric. The day-to-day business of fitting means to ends and filling in the policy blanks has either been delegated to subordinates, left to the bureaucracy, or put in the “too hard” box. As time grows short, Bush needs to attend closely to three further matters. The first is as obvious and pressing as Iraq and an important factor in the need to rebuild land forces, especially the Army: a surge in U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. The second and third factors are less frequently discussed but essential for the long-term viability of the Bush Doctrine and the continuity of the Pax Americana: articulate a strategy for the “long war” in the greater Middle East and devise a genuinely global response to the rise of China. This issue of National Security Outlook begins a series devoted to these three measures of the enduring meaning of the Bush Doctrine.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and National Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, America, and Asia

195. Will India Emerge as an Eastern or Western Power?

Author:
Kishore Mahbubani
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Founded in 1992, the Center for the Advanced Study of India at the University of Pennsylvania is the only research institution in the United States dedicated to the study of contemporary India. A national resource, it fills an urgent need for objective knowledge of India's rapidly changing society, politics and economy, and the processes of transformation underway in an ancient civilization emerging as a major power.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States, India, East Asia, and Asia

196. After the MFA, the CCAs (China Containment Agreements)

Author:
O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The post-Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) trade regime in textile and apparel appears to be emerging in ways which are quite different from what had been widely anticipated before the termination of Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Since the end of ATC, there has been growing and spreading set of trade restrictions targeted primarily at China, the largest shipper of textile and apparel, through a series of agreements that we term China Containment Agreements. We discuss the evolution of these agreements, their behavioural responses, and then draw their parallels to those under the older MFA. We argue that there is potential for these restrictions to prolong and grow, as well as spread to other products through the product-specific safeguards mechanism included in the conditions of China's World Trade Organization accession.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China and Asia

197. Sustainability of Economic Growth in India

Author:
Rajiv Kumar, Amitendu Palit, and Karan Singh
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The robust performance of the Indian economy in recent years, with economic growth averaging 8.5%, has generated intense debate regarding India's future economic prospects. Indeed, the future of more than a billion people, many of whom still exist in degrading and unacceptable poverty and deprivation, depends critically on India's ability to grow fast at high rates. This paper, while examining the issue, argues that India's recent economic performance is a result of it's entering a virtuous circle of growth generated by some key structural drivers. The latter include a dynamic private sector, benign external environment and a wellfunctioning democracy. The paper also points out that high growth can be sustained only if necessary policies are adopted for removing binding constraints like poor infrastructure, stagnant agriculture and lack of fiscal space. The paper identifies education as the most critical sector requiring reforms, followed by public goods delivery and labour markets.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
India and Asia

198. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020

Author:
John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

199. Engaging India: Ambassador Ortwin Hennig's visit to Delhi and Mumbai

Author:
Sahiba Trivedi
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Ambassador Ortwin Hennig is the Vice President and the Head of Conflict Prevention Program of the East West Institute at Brussels. His previous assignments include the Commissioner for Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and Post-Conflict Peace Building in the German Government; diplomatic postings in Afghanistan, Russia, German Representation at the European Commission and the OSCE in Vienna. He has also served the Office of the German Federal President as a Foreign Policy Advisor. Ambassador Hennig is an alumnus of the NATO Defense College in Rome having specialized in arms control and security policy matters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, India, Asia, Germany, and Vienna

200. Advancing a Constructive Agenda for US-Russia Relations: Insights and Recommendations from Leading Experts

Author:
Jeff Procak
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
On April 25, 2007, the EastWest Institute, together with the Kennan Institute, organized in Washington DC a two-hour roundtable discussion on the current state and outlook for US-Russia relations. The roundtable used President Putin's speech presented to the 43rd Conference on Security Policy in Munich on February 10, 2007 as a point of reference. The purpose of this gathering was to examine strategies and approaches to reverse the significant decline in Russian-American relations over the last several years. The seminar was attended by 20 prominent experts from the US and Russia, including foreign policy advisors, representatives of the academic, business, and NGO communities, and mass media. Topics discussed included the most important issues on the US-Russia geostrategic agenda: arms control and nuclear non- proliferation, international energy, Russia's WTO accession, trade and economic cooperation, mutual perceptions and role of the media.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, and Asia